What are the good topics and suggestions for real estate papers? How to write well?

The theme of the paper on real estate is: 1. The impact of rising interest rates on the real estate industry, 2. * * Analysis of regional real estate bubble, 3. About real estate and national housing, 4. Discuss the appraisal method of residential performance, 5. Analysis and suggestions on current real estate problems, and so on. . . . . . How to write well? For example, the direct and indirect impact of rising interest rates on real estate prices Abstract After the central bank took measures to raise interest rates continuously, people paid great attention to the real estate market. Based on the relationship between interest rate rise and real estate price, this paper analyzes the direct and indirect influence of interest rate rise on real estate price from the aspects of real estate investment, behavior choice of developers, foreign exchange market and securities market.

Keywords: raising interest rates, real estate prices directly affect indirect effects

On October 20th, 2065438+001kloc-0, the People's Bank of China raised the deposit and loan interest rate of financial institutions for one year and above by 0.25 percentage point. At this point, the one-year deposit and loan interest rates rose to 2.50% and 5.56%, respectively, and the benchmark interest rate for loans over five years reached 6. 14%. Some people say that the central bank's continuous interest rate hike is aimed at the real estate market. Some people say that its original intention is not aimed at the real estate market. In fact, for the majority of property buyers, speculators, real estate developers, the original intention is not important. What matters is what, how and to what extent the interest rate will affect the real estate price.

First, the direct impact of rising interest rates on real estate prices.

Real estate price is the concentrated expression of the real estate market. Most of the main funds used for real estate development come from bank loans, and the interest rate directly affects the cost and profit of real estate development. As an external factor, the change of interest rate will inevitably have a great impact on the real estate investment with huge capital investment. Therefore, the change of interest rate can play a certain regulatory role in real estate prices.

1. The rise in interest rates affects housing prices by restraining real estate investment. (1) increases the opportunity cost of real estate investment. Interest rate reflects the opportunity cost level of real estate investment. The rising interest rate increases the opportunity cost of real estate investment, so it will restrain real estate investment to some extent when the deposit and loan interest rates both rise. On the contrary, if the bank interest rate is low, it means that the opportunity cost of real estate investment is small, which in turn stimulates real estate investment. Therefore, the rise of bank interest rate increases the opportunity cost of real estate investment, which ultimately inhibits real estate investment. (2) Restrain the investment of real estate investors. For ordinary property buyers, the main purpose of their purchase is to improve their living conditions. After the interest rate rises, the repayment amount of such buyers will definitely increase, but the increased loan amount is very limited. As far as the current interest rate level is concerned, it has little substantial impact on buyers and is not enough to affect the mainstream purchasing power of buying a house for self-occupation. People who urgently need to improve housing conditions and quality of life will also seek affordable housing in the market, and the rise in interest rates has little inhibitory effect on it. For house speculators, after the interest rate rises, their financing costs increase, which changes their expectations of real estate prices. The price increase must be extremely high to ensure the recovery of the investment principal. What's more, because the expectation of continuing to raise interest rates has a restraining effect on the real estate bubble, speculators can easily change their expectations of the trend of housing prices, and then change their capital investment. If they withdraw from real estate investment in large quantities because of the expectation of falling house prices, it will lead to a large number of vacant real estate, which will affect the change of supply and demand of real estate and then lead to the change of house prices. For developers, the rise in loan interest rates makes developers face market risks. First of all, for investors, the increase of loan interest rate leads to the increase of financing cost of real estate investment, which is equivalent to the decrease of investment profit. This is likely to lead investors to shift their investment direction and reduce their investment in real estate. Secondly, the rise in interest rates leads to the decline in people's purchasing power of real estate, which leads to the decline in effective demand in the real estate market, which in turn leads to the decline in real estate prices, which leads to the failure of real estate development enterprises to withdraw funds in time, the increase in development costs, the decrease in profits and even losses, which will make the real estate industry start a new round of structural reform and adjustment.

2. The rise in interest rates affects housing prices through the behavior choices of real estate developers. Influenced by the behavior choice of real estate developers, a completely different situation will appear after raising interest rates. The rise of loan interest rate has increased the interest cost of real estate developers. There are only two possibilities to bear these new interest costs: one is the real estate developers themselves. In this way, the increase in financial costs may force developers to consider shortening the turnover period of real estate development, and to absorb the cost increase caused by the increase in interest rates by increasing the speed of real estate realization. In the case that the developer bears the increased cost, in order to absorb this part of the cost, it is necessary to speed up the turnover of the real estate and the supply will increase accordingly. If the price remains unchanged, the effective demand is insufficient, and the real estate is idle, the developer will inevitably reduce the price in order to recover the funds, and consumers will benefit. But what followed was the decrease of developers' profits, and some developers withdrew from the industry. The other is to transfer the new interest cost and risk to the buyers, and to transfer the new interest cost by raising the real estate price to make up for the profit loss caused by the rising loan interest rate. In this case, real estate prices will not fall, but will continue to rise. This is contrary to our theoretical inference that "the increase in loan interest rate reduces the demand of buyers for real estate, which leads to the decline in real estate prices". In 2004, the central bank raised the loan interest rate by 0.27 percentage points. With the increase of interest rate, the cost of enterprises with high correlation with real estate, such as land and building materials industries, increases, which further promotes the rise of house prices.

It is not difficult to see that the state has raised the financing cost of real estate development by raising the bank interest rate. If real estate developers "digest" the new costs, they will inevitably adopt the quantitative strategy of "small profits but quick turnover" to increase the supply of real estate, which will affect the change of the relationship between supply and demand of real estate, and then lead to the decline of house prices. Under the mature or competitive market conditions, the house price is ultimately determined by the relationship between supply and demand rather than the cost of the supplier, that is, the rising development cost is difficult to directly transmit to the house price. But for the current China real estate market, this situation is unlikely to happen. On the contrary, if real estate developers refuse to "pay the bill" for the new cost, in order to ensure the recovery of investment principal, they must push up the increase of house prices, and local governments will also contribute to the high house prices for certain benefits, so house prices will continue to rise in a certain period of time. Second, the indirect impact of rising interest rates on real estate prices.

Interest rate is the reward for the use of loan capital, so the rise and fall of interest rate has a great influence on financial capital. In an open financial market, the change of interest rate will change the flow of funds in the foreign exchange market and the securities market, and then affect the inflow of funds into the industry.

1, rising interest rates affect house prices through the foreign exchange market. On the premise that other conditions remain unchanged, the rise of a country's currency interest rate will attract the inflow of external financial capital, form the demand for the country's currency in the foreign exchange market, and promote the exchange rate of high-interest currencies to rise. There are a lot of international hot money in the contemporary international financial market, which is extremely sensitive to the change of interest rate. The inflow of these international funds will promote the rise of RMB exchange rate. The appreciation of RMB means that China's economy is in good condition, which can create more investment opportunities and have higher returns. Foreign investors will expect the RMB to continue to appreciate, and a large number of short-term speculative funds will flood into China, and the real estate market will undoubtedly become the concentration of these funds. Especially after China relaxes the restrictions on foreign investment in the real estate market, a large amount of foreign investment will flood into the real estate market in China through various channels, which will increase the expectation of real estate demand and make the demand curve of real estate move outward. Relevant information shows that when the house price rises by 5% and the RMB appreciates by 5%, the investment income of overseas investors will increase by10.3%; When the house price rises by 15% and the RMB appreciates by 5%, the return on investment of foreign investors increases by 20.8%; When the house price rises by 15% and the RMB appreciates by 15%, the yield of foreign investors increases to 32.3%. At present, overseas "hot money" is most likely to have an important impact on the domestic real estate industry. If the RMB continues to appreciate or maintains a good expectation of appreciation, according to the profit-seeking nature of capital, a large amount of "hot money" will enter the real estate market in China, pushing up the real estate price in China.

2. Rising interest rates affect housing prices through the securities market. On the one hand, there is a certain dependence between securities prices and interest rates. Rising interest rates will increase securities prices, reduce profits, and make the direct financing cost of real estate developers too high to be effectively supported by direct financing, thus limiting the ability of real estate developers to obtain financial support from the securities market and reducing the supply of real estate. On the other hand, with the rise of interest rates, the profits of investors engaged in securities investment are decreasing day by day, and they will transfer idle funds to areas with appreciation potential, and real estate is their "potential stock". As real estate, the value of real estate is relatively stable and generally does not depreciate. Especially with the rapid development of China's economy, people's expectations of real estate value will only rise rather than fall, and investors will choose to invest their funds in the real estate market, which will strengthen speculation on real estate, increase the demand for real estate and indirectly promote the rise of real estate prices. These two forces affect housing prices by acting on the supply and demand sides of the real estate market.

Theoretically, raising interest rates by the central bank can reduce real estate prices. However, there are many factors that affect the real estate market price. Interest rate is only one factor that affects the real estate price. Other things being equal, rising interest rates can increase the cost of real estate developers, thus affecting the relationship between supply and demand, which may lead to a decline in house prices. However, the price is not entirely determined by the cost, but by the power of both the supply and demand sides, so it is uncertain whether the rise of interest rate can curb the rise of real estate prices or to what extent it can affect the real estate market price. Above, we only discussed the impact of the central bank's interest rate hike on the real estate price, without discussing the impact of other factors on the real estate demand price and the impact of interest rate hike on the real estate supply price. Especially under the influence of China's current economic growth speed, mode and regional development strategy, it leads to rapid economic growth, population growth and urban space growth in developed regions and cities, which will eventually lead to an increase in housing demand and housing stock. Therefore, it is difficult to draw a comprehensive conclusion whether the central bank can curb the rise of real estate prices by raising interest rates.