Evergrande Real Estate fell slightly on the first day.

Recently, many cities have ushered in snowy days, and the chill in winter is getting stronger. Synchronizing with the weather changes is the performance of the second-hand housing market in many cities across the country.

65438+February 65438+June, the National Bureau of Statistics released "20 165438+ 10" and "20191-65438+/kloc-" This is also the second-hand housing prices in more than 30 cities fell for two consecutive months, and 65438+ 10 was 35 cities.

As we all know, since the regulation of 20 16, the price limit policy has been offered in various places one after another, and the new commercial housing has been firmly suppressed with little fluctuation. In this context, the trend of second-hand housing prices can better reflect the real situation of the market. Now the second-hand housing is "falling endlessly", and many people are worried about it.

The decline in the price of second-hand houses actually seems sudden, but it is actually the process of boiling frogs in warm water. As early as 20 18, the price of second-hand houses in many cities began to fall, but it has continued until now, and the decline has become larger, which has begun to attract widespread attention from the media and the public.

Why do second-hand housing prices continue to fall? Where will the real estate market go? Uncle Ku will analyze it today.

The decline in the price of second-hand housing has long been a clue.

Recently, such a picture has been circulated on the Internet. The chart shows that in 20 19 1 1 month, among the 25 key cities, the average listing price of second-hand houses fell, with Qingdao, the biggest drop, falling as high as 20.3 1%!

There are also various expenses (interest, various taxes and fees, maintenance funds, etc.). ) In buying a house, that is to say, if a Qingdao person buys a house in 20 18 165438 10, even if he can sell it at the listing price (regardless of the value-added tax to be paid within two years), he will lose a quarter. In reality, in such a bleak market, the real transaction price is likely to be lower than the listing price, and the loss will continue to expand.

Not only Qingdao, but also Beishangguang cannot escape the fate of falling.

According to Anjuke's data, the average listing price of second-hand houses in Beijing decreased by about 1% and 438+09+0 compared with 10 in 2065, which is the fifth consecutive month of decline of second-hand houses in Beijing. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of second-hand commercial houses in Beijing decreased by 0.3% in July and 0.4% in August.

Like the stock market, the property market tends to buy up instead of down.

According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate, from June 2065438 to September 2009, there were 109700 sets of second-hand houses in Beijing, down 10% year-on-year. The average transaction price was 64,000 yuan/square meter, and the transaction volume was the lowest since 20 15. This is the biggest adjustment of the second-hand housing market in Beijing since 2008.

According to the statistics of Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, 8,844 sets of second-hand houses were sold in Beijing at 20 19 and 10, a decrease of 3,475 sets from September and a decrease of 28.2% from the previous month. Compared with the 8879 sets on June 20 18 and 10, it decreased by 35 sets, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%.

Generally speaking, the number of online signs of second-hand houses in Beijing was 1 18558 before 19, which was 130664 lower than that before 18.

Shanghai and Guangzhou, both traditional first-tier cities, are similar to Beijing.

Due to the strong wait-and-see mood in the market, the transaction cycle has been extended (for example, the transaction cycle of the second-hand housing market in Guangzhou has been extended from about three months in 20 18 to about four months in 20 19 to 10), and the owner of the quotation has to reduce it several times.

According to the data of Hefu Real Estate, the proportion of cases with a sharp price reduction of more than 5% reached the highest level in the year, and nearly 30% of the final transaction price was lower than the initial offer by more than 5%. Almost all real estate agents will attach a note when they show their houses in the circle of friends: "The price can be negotiated".

It can be seen that the decline in the price of second-hand houses seems sudden, but in fact it is the process of boiling frogs in warm water. As early as 2065438+February 2009, the data of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the listing price of second-hand houses fell for three consecutive months, with the third-and fourth-tier cities falling the most, followed by first-and second-tier cities.

Since then, the entire second-hand housing market has been in a state of "no price". Recently, it has suddenly aroused great concern, mainly because it has fallen for too long, and the decline is relatively large.

For a long time, everyone has heard too many stories about the skyrocketing housing prices after buying a house successfully and getting rich. Nowadays, the news that the price of second-hand houses is falling constantly seems to subvert this cognition, and many people become worried.

Market expectations have quietly changed.

Why do second-hand housing prices continue to fall?

There is no doubt that the policy level has a place in the influencing factors.

The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on February 6th, 20 19 said nothing about real estate. This was immediately regarded as a great benefit by developers, real estate speculators, and even many people who have bought houses, believing that house prices will rise. After all, since the regulation of 2065438+2006 930, local policies have been tightened continuously.

But then 10- 12 the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing reiterated that houses are for living, not for speculation. ...

This kind of drama has been staged countless times in the past few years.

On February 20 18, the Central Economic Work Conference did not mention real estate. However, since 20 19, the relevant departments have repeatedly reiterated that "housing is not speculation", and at the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on July 30, they even emphasized that "real estate is not a short-term means to stimulate the economy", which set the tone for the real estate market in the second half of the year. Since then, the trend of the whole industry has indeed been as expected by the policy.

The National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction just held on February 23, 65438 once again emphasized that houses are for living, not for speculation, and real estate should not be regarded as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. Continue to implement the long-term mechanism plan for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and strive to establish and improve the real estate regulation system and mechanism.

All these reflect the clear signal that the central government insists on real estate regulation and control.

Since this round of regulation and control, the policy that most makes housing enterprises complain seems to be the price limit.

For example, on February 0, 20 19, 165438, Changsha Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Defining the Price Composition of Commercial Housing under the Supervision of Our City's Cost Method, pointing out that in order to implement the policy of "staying without speculation" and the regulation of real estate in provinces and cities, and further strengthen the management of commercial housing prices, Changsha City further clarified that the price of commercial housing was changed from cost+profit+. It triggered a heated discussion in the industry for a time.

In fact, this document is a continuation of related documents of 20 17. As early as 20 1 1.30, the Changsha Municipal Development and Reform Commission promulgated the Interim Measures for the Price Management of Price-limited Commodity Housing in Changsha, proposing that the price of price-limited commodity housing is composed of cost plus profit tax, with an average profit rate of 6% to 8%.

Changsha is just a microcosm. In fact, there are more "ruthless" cities than Changsha's price limit, such as Chengdu.

The result of the price limit is that the price of a second-hand house is seriously upside down. In addition, a survey shows that 80% to 90% of people in China have a "new house" complex, and everyone is chasing a new house.

It seems that the second-hand housing market is bound to be cold, but the new houses are limited after all, and there are only a few that can shake the number. Seeing the crazy market, investors and real estate speculators who just need to buy new houses will naturally look to second-hand houses. Once the gambling supervision is relaxed, the price of second-hand houses can continue to rise. This is the same reason that developers get land at a high price when the market is crazy, and the floor price is more expensive than the surrounding housing prices, betting on expectations.

However, most people did not expect that the determination of central regulation was so firm. Now, three years later, there is still no sign of large-scale relaxation. The price of new houses is still strictly limited. How big is the room for second-hand housing that is already higher than the price of new houses?

For investors, as long as the house price does not rise, it will lose a day. As a result, the expectations of the just-needed groups have quietly changed, from the previous anxiety to calmness, and the market has changed from the previous seller's market to the buyer's market.

Therefore, the price limit is only a superficial factor, and the expected change is the key to the market turn.

The truth behind "falling endlessly"

In the normal market, other things being equal, second-hand houses will be 20% to 30% cheaper than new houses. However, in the context of price limit, second-hand houses are more expensive than new houses that are continuously supplied. Therefore, buying a second-hand house for self-occupation or investment is not so cost-effective, and the supply of the market naturally increases.

In this way, the original high-priced second-hand housing will naturally be sold at a reduced price. Even if it is a new house, the price will not be high. This is because under the condition of price limit, the profit space of developers is compressed, and some companies with extensive management may face unprofitable or even losses. In order to control the cost, all kinds of magical things happen frequently: cardboard doors, bamboo instead of steel bars, only six trees in a community, plastic artificial lakes and so on.

The picture shows an artificial lake painted with blue plastic in a residential area in Changsha, Hunan.

20 18 typhoon mangosteen hit Shenzhen, and some newly-built luxury houses even lost to many "youngest" and even rural houses in urban villages, which is a vivid portrayal.

It is natural to sell such a new house at a low price. ...

There are also some second-hand houses, although not built under the price limit policy, but because of poor property management, the whole community appears to be "scarred." At present, first-and second-tier cities have entered or will soon enter the era of stock houses, and the quality of property greatly affects the price of second-hand houses in residential areas and the future premium space. Second-hand housing is what you see is what you get. It is naturally difficult to sell such a house at a good price.

The promotion of new houses is also a catalyst for the decline in the price of second-hand houses. Since the CBRC issued "No.23 Document" in May 20 19, real estate financing channels have been gradually tightened, and new regulatory policies such as trust, overseas debt, bank loans, development loans and ABS have been frequent. Many housing enterprises are in crisis and have to rely on their own hematopoiesis to continue to obtain cash flow-in the case that the year-on-year increase in house prices slows down and buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood, they will withdraw cash through promotion and slow sales.

For example, in August of 20 19, China Evergrande launched the "all-staff marketing" plan, which was implemented from August 20th to June 8th 10, with a maximum discount of 60%. The robbery plan includes 27 regions including Sichuan, Chongqing and Zhongyuan. * * * It involves 505 projects, including 493 residential and commercial projects and 12 projects of tourism group companies.

Although the promotion made Evergrande's average sales price in September hit a new low in recent years, its sales volume did increase substantially. In September, Evergrande achieved contract sales of about 83 1. 1 billion yuan, an increase of about 73.8% compared with August, and an increase of about 3 1.9% compared with the same period of 20 18, setting a new monthly sales record for the Group.

Evergrande's rush to release has played a great demonstration role, and other leading real estate enterprises are also scrambling to reduce prices and promote sales. Small and medium-sized housing enterprises can only be forced to follow up, but your brand is not big enough, and the products are not necessarily as good as those of big housing enterprises. If the price is more expensive than that of big housing enterprises, there is a great chance of being left behind. ...

The large-scale promotion of new houses has greatly increased the market supply, making it easier to buy new houses than before, and the second-hand housing market is naturally more unattended, accelerating its price decline.

Another reason that cannot be ignored is the slowdown in economic growth.

As we all know, the rental rate of housing in China has been at a very low level. According to the data of Numbeo, a global database website, by the middle of 20 19, the rental rate of China will be around 1.8%. But some investors buy some old and small ones, and then rent them out after a little modification. The rent rate may reach about 4%, which can even cover their mortgage. In this case, investors can hold it for a long time.

However, with the decline of economic growth, the demand for renting houses and the rising power of rents are weakened, and the holding of investors is getting heavier and heavier, which also affects the second-hand housing market.

Will the real estate market be affected?

Second-hand housing prices continue to fall, both for policy reasons and market reasons. How long will this situation last, and will it affect the whole real estate market, leading to a price drop?

So far, no.

First of all, new houses and second-hand houses interact with each other, but in the case of price limit for new houses, the influence of second-hand housing market on new house market is very weak. Although the price of second-hand houses has been falling since 20 18, the average selling price of newly-built commercial houses has increased by 7.3% from 20 19 to 10.

Secondly, the Central Economic Work Conference reiterated that "staying in houses without speculation" does not mean that it is not good, because there is also a long-term management and regulation mechanism of "fully implementing the policy of the city, stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, stabilizing expectations, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market". It can be seen that "stability" is still the main tone of the real estate industry in 2020.

It is worth noting that the word "stability" was mentioned 29 times in the conference draft, which shows that "stability" is also the focus of economic work in 2020. As the largest industry in the national economy, the real estate industry must be stable.

Finally, as mentioned above, the previous second-hand housing market was slightly deformed. Since 20 18, prices have been falling one after another, which is the return of normal value and will not fall indefinitely.

In fact, like the new housing market, the second-hand housing market is also characterized by differentiation. Although the price of second-hand housing in some cities has not rebounded, the transaction volume has begun to pick up.

For example, according to the data of Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association, in October 2019165438+ 10, the number of online signings of all second-hand houses in the city increased by 14.00%. The rebound in Beijing was even stronger, with 10 second-hand residential transactions112,296 sets, up 39.03% from the previous month and 9.76% from the same period last year.

What is the reason for it

This is because big cities like Beijing and Guangzhou have already entered the era of stock, and second-hand housing transactions are dominant. Take Beijing as an example. As of 20 19 and 10, Beijing has supplied 78,000 new houses, of which 47,600 are for competition, accounting for 6 1%. In the same period, the transaction volume of newly-built pure commercial housing in Beijing increased by 95.4% year-on-year, and the number of second-hand houses in the city decreased by 9.3% year-on-year. But this still can't fundamentally change the dominant position of second-hand houses, especially considering lots and school districts.

Note: Competitive housing refers to the commercial housing produced by the land transfer method of "limited house price and competitive land price". The following conditions must be met when purchasing a competition-restricted house: Beijing registered family units can buy 2 sets, and non-Beijing registered family units can only buy 1 set, and they must have social security or pay taxes in Beijing for 60 consecutive months. Buying a house with a work permit is the same as buying a house with a Beijing hukou.

The first-tier cities represented by Beijing are the first cities to start this round of regulation and control, and they are also the first cities to see the results. The average price of second-hand houses in Beijing began to decline from March 20 17-from April 20 17 to February 20 18, with a cumulative decline of 13.5%.

However, since the Spring Festival of 20 18, the average price of second-hand houses in Beijing has experienced two seasonal increases and two consecutive declines, and the monthly average price has changed by about 2% month-on-month. 20 19, 1 1, the transaction price of second-hand houses in Beijing still fell slightly, but the rebound in transaction volume can indicate that the market has begun to enter the channel of repair.

Because, at present, the second-hand housing market in Beijing is at a low level since the regulation, according to past experience, the market may pick up seasonally after the Spring Festival. This logic also applies to many other first-and second-tier cities.

However, I am afraid that the prices of second-hand houses in many third-and fourth-tier cities will continue to decline. In the first two years, benefiting from destocking and monetization of shed reform, the property market in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities ushered in a round of arrogance. However, the transaction volume of new houses in most third, fourth and fifth tier cities is much larger than that of second-hand houses. Compared with residents in first-and second-tier cities, they have no choice but to buy second-hand houses. Moreover, a large part of the population in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities is in a state of net outflow, and there are few physical industries. After the shed is closed in 2020, the main buyers in these cities will be greatly reduced, and it is difficult to find buyers for second-hand houses.

At present, some cities have begun to rely on policies to "stabilize". For example,129 October 20 19 165438+ Guangdong Foshan Municipal Bureau of Human Resources and Social Security jointly issued the Supplementary Notice on Further Improving the Talent Housing Policy. The biggest highlight of the "Notice" is that talents who work in Foshan and have a bachelor's degree or above or a professional qualification of intermediate workers or above are not subject to household registration, individual tax and social security payment restrictions for the first time; Soon after, in 65438+February 65438+March, the Nansha District People's Government of Guangzhou issued the Notice on Further Facilitating Talents and Hong Kong and Macao Residents to Buy Commercial Housing. The notice shows that the purchase of the first set of commercial housing in Nansha District is not subject to household registration, social security and individual tax restrictions.

Under the background of talent competition, the prospects of the second-hand housing market in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities are worrying.

Generally speaking, the decline in the price of second-hand housing in the country is the calm enthusiasm of the property market, the reasonable return of value and the determination of central regulation. Although the word "stable" is the first word, some cities will gradually relax their control in 2020 according to the policy of "making policy according to the city", but the policy of "staying in the house and not speculating" cannot be broken. The decline in the price of second-hand housing is exactly the result that policy control hopes to see.

Compared with the new housing market, the second-hand housing market is facing more market-oriented challenges. The place that should fall continues to fall, and the place that should not fall rises again.