The real estate sector has multiple daily limit! The central government issued a document to relax the settlement. What do you think of the market prospect?

Today, the real estate sector was completely ignited by a policy!

By midday, the real estate sector was among the top gainers, with Ye Wan enterprises and Shang Lu developing daily limit, while Huaye, Zhongnan Construction, Sunshine City and other stocks all rose more than 4%.

According to Cailian News, on February 25th, 65438, the general offices of the General Office of the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council issued the Opinions on Promoting the Reform of the System and Mechanism of Social Mobility of Labor Force and Talents (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions), which proposed that the household registration system and public services should be used to promote regional mobility. We will completely abolish the restrictions on the settlement of cities with a permanent urban population of less than 3 million, and fully relax the conditions for the settlement of big cities with a permanent urban population of 3 million to 5 million.

In addition, the Opinions also pointed out that the employment priority policy should be implemented, mobile opportunities should be created, and countermeasures for the impact of technologies such as robots and artificial intelligence on employment should be studied. It is necessary to get rid of the drawbacks of the system and mechanism that hinder the social mobility of labor and talents, so that everyone has the opportunity to realize their own development through hard work.

In this regard, Everbright Real Estate analyst He Miannan believes that in the short term, relaxing the restrictions on settlement and introducing talent policies will help boost market sentiment. It is estimated that the sales area of second-tier cities with long regulation time will increase by 10% year-on-year in 2020, obviously outperforming the national real estate market. In the medium and long term, second-tier cities are an important direction for the development of new urbanization metropolitan areas/urban agglomerations in China. In the future, with the support of population, capital, land, industry and other factors, the fundamental prospects of the city are improving and the housing demand is strongly supported.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of the national commercial housing sales area dropped in June from 5438+065438+ 10, but it still maintained a positive growth, and the cumulative growth rate of the sales area in May further expanded under the positive growth.

According to China's urban grading standards, measured by urban population, 3-5 million people belong to I-type big cities, including Xi, Harbin, Qingdao, Changchun, Jinan, Dalian, Hefei, Kunming, Taiyuan, Xiamen, Nanning, Suzhou and Ningbo.

According to previous statistics, according to the requirement of 1 10,000-3,000,000 urban residents, there are 65 I-type big cities in China that meet this requirement. It includes second-tier capital cities such as Urumqi, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang, Fuzhou, Nanchang, Haikou and Hohhot, as well as economically strong cities such as Wuxi, Foshan, Changzhou, Yantai, Zhuhai, Wenzhou, Luoyang and Tangshan, as well as almost all third-and fourth-tier cities represented by Baoding, Shaoxing, Huizhou and Liuzhou.

Institutional explanation:

Everbright Securities believes that the central economic work conference was set smoothly at the end of the year, and the downward trend of fundamental sales and investment did not stall. Under the supply-side reform of the industry, the concentration has continued to increase, and the differentiation between short-term performance and long-term profit growth of housing enterprises has intensified. Leading real estate enterprises have flexible income, relatively stable performance growth, relatively defensive valuation and relatively high dividend yield. In the case of loose liquidity and "asset shortage", it is attractive for large capital allocation with long assessment period. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhaobao Wanjin of A shares and Sunac China and China Jinmao of H shares. At the same time, considering the loose global liquidity and the slow downward risk-free interest rate, it is conducive to the revaluation of existing properties, and it is recommended to pay attention to Lujiazui and China Resources Land.

The research report of CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that with the real estate industry entering the second half, the era of explosive growth in the past is gone forever. In the future, the growth rate of the industry will inevitably decline and the profit margin of the industry will narrow. The pace of development business has slowed down, and with the improvement of the completion scale in the later period, the real estate industry chain has increased. The value of stocks is becoming more and more prominent. Standing at the moment, I think there are two main lines of industry opportunities next year:

1. At present, the development business is slowing down, the competition and integration among industries will become more and more fierce, and the survival of the fittest will be quite obvious. Leading companies and some potential housing enterprises still have growth potential and take advantage of opportunities to increase market share. Vanke A, Poly Development, Jindi, Sunshine City and Joy City are recommended.

2. The stock value is in full bloom. In the post-development era of real estate, with the increasing scale of stock property, the operation and management of stock property contains a trillion-dollar market, which is also a battleground for real estate enterprises in the future. Recommend Country Garden service, investment promotion, Yongsheng life service and Xindazheng.