Shenyang yi Zhan Rong Chuang property

There is no doubt that the global economic recession caused by this epidemic will exceed the economic crisis in 2008.

The spread of "negative interest rate" in developed countries in Europe and America, the unprecedented "bottomless" quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and the bottomless global epidemic all indicate that we may experience an unprecedented economic crisis.

In all developed countries except China, it is bound to fall into recession. And China can't be immune.

In the latest research report, CICC lowered the real GDP growth forecast of China in 2020 from the previous 6. 1% to 2.6%. On March 9/kloc-0, UBS also lowered its annual economic growth forecast for China to 1.5%.

Two weeks ago, I predicted in advance in March 12 that China's current victory against the epidemic was only 1.0 version. The impact of the epidemic on the world has just begun, and the impact of the epidemic on China's import and export trade and industrial chain is the real version 2.0!

At present, China has only completed the first stage of work to ensure the safety of people's lives, and it is a more arduous task to keep the economy running smoothly in the later stage.

During the economic crisis in 2008, driven by "4 trillion yuan" and "guarantee 8", China took the lead in getting out of the quagmire and leading the world to achieve positive growth. I believe that this time, history will repeat itself, because we still have many tools to use, such as new infrastructure, monetary easing and real estate.

1

Bottom-hunting China

The "zero interest rate" and "negative interest rate" in Europe, America and Japan, as well as a large amount of money, will inevitably lead to the flood of liquidity, and the nature of capital seeking profits will inevitably choose to flow into countries and regions with higher return on investment.

At present, the domestic deposit interest rate is 1.75% for one year, 2.25% for two years and 2.75% for three years. From the perspective of interest spread alone, international capital has great impetus to flow into China.

In addition, since last year, foreign capital began to bargain-hunting commercial real estate in China on a large scale, and the main target cities were Beijing and Shanghai. Including Pan Shiyi Y, who is now running, is also "inviting wolves into the room" at a very low price.

It can be predicted that with China taking the lead in getting out of the epidemic, the economy gradually recovering, and the demand of international capital hedging, high-quality real estate projects in domestic first-and second-tier cities will become cheap chips for foreign investors to bargain with China.

2

Admit to warm up

On March 24, the official media People's Daily published the article "Buyers and sellers are willing to enter the market, and the second-hand housing market in many places is picking up". This is the first time that the official media publicly acknowledged that the property market is picking up.

I have repeatedly reminded you in the previous article that not speculating in the house and suppressing the property market are completely different things, and not speculating in the house is not synonymous with suppressing the property market.

With the global economic downturn and the downward pressure on China's economy, it is the most correct gesture to make the property market recover reasonably.

Don't imagine that high-level officials will hit the property market hard. The current situation that the property market is a wallet cannot be changed in the short term.

So we can see that since the beginning of this year, the price limits in Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities have been opened in a low-key manner. The price of Qiantan, the hottest plate in Shanghai, has been relaxed from 85,000 in previous years to 90,000+this year. In 2020, Shanghai's first pre-sale permit, Haipo Bund, was sold at a price of 1.38 million yuan/flat, while the pre-sale price of Sunac Bund 1 last year was still 1.2 1.5 million yuan/flat.

The popularity of Shenzhen is even more intense. First, the mansion ran out a few days ago, and now it is the high price of tea. The "tea fee" for the new house of Shenzhen Baoan Haina Mansion11.5 million needs 700,000 yuan, and the "tea fee" for Yunxi and Jinhengli Phase II is also 600,000-700,000 yuan. Without the booming property market, there would be no sky-high "tea fee".

As for the warming data of new houses and second-hand houses in key cities, I won't list them any more. The previous article has said a lot.

three

Cautious stock trading

It is rare for US stocks 10 to experience four fuses in a trading day. The sharp decline of US stocks led to frequent intervention of domestic A-shares.

If you carefully taste, it is easy to find that our A shares have been difficult to get out of the independent market for a long time in the past few decades, and they will always be ups and downs. You're welcome to say that I have never met anyone who really made a fortune in the stock market. After a short-term skyrocketing price, it will definitely return to the stock market one day. There is no winner in the stock market until the moment it stops.

The more turbulent the capital market, the more ups and downs the financial market, and the more real estate will play a role in maintaining value.

20 15 how did the property market rise? That is to say, before the A-shares reached the highest point of 5 178 in June of 20 15, the big coffee makers who made profits in the stock market cashed out and bought luxury houses in Shanghai and Shenzhen to solidify their income. The skyrocketing market of 20 15 started from the luxury home market and was promoted from top to bottom.

So the stock market is destined to be a tool for short-term financing. Value investment and long-term bull market are temporarily beyond our power.

Don't be confident that you can stop speculating in stocks to make some money. In the end, all your down payment becomes the down payment of others in the stock market!

The property market and the stock market are two incompatible species. People who speculate in the stock market will dislike the slow pace of making money in the property market, and those who really understand the value of the property market simply look down on the stock market. However, the final result is often that those who buy a house only make a profit, and those who stock up for 10,000 years make a profit.

The stock market is an amplifier of human greed, and eventually human nature will be defeated in the face of greed!

Therefore, I don't recommend you to stock market, but to stock market cautiously, including stock funds and index funds. It is difficult for the stock market and the top management to control accurately, not to mention you ordinary people.

four

Abnormal school district house

Judging from this round of recovery at the end of February, the first-line and key second-line transactions were the largest among the three types of housing: school district houses, upside-down new houses and large-sized houses.

I told you in February 13' s original article ""that the first wave of market was the school district housing boom that started in March. Now it seems to be true. In fact, this is not a prediction at all, but the accumulation of years of experience.

In the property market, the most flexible products are the dual school districts (including nine-year key school districts) in which primary schools and junior high schools belong to the first echelon, followed by the primary school districts in the first echelon. Then there is the quality new house in the core area. What doesn't conflict most is the high premium luxury house which is obviously higher than the surrounding price, and what doesn't conflict most is the old small suburb without school district housing.

In the whole property market, the school district housing is completely independent of the property market, and it will never go up or down. For the school district housing, there is no need to analyze the real estate policy at all, and there is no need to look at the interest rate. All the negatives and all the positives will eventually be transformed into favorable policies by the school district. The school district housing is not restricted by the property market policy at all, but is only affected by the admission policy.

At present, the price of school district housing in Shenzhen has increased by at least 5- 10% compared with the previous year. According to my first-line inspection, the transaction of the school district housing in Shanghai was extremely rapid, but the price remained basically stable.

Therefore, for friends who need school districts, they must consider in advance, and the sooner they buy, the more cost-effective. Without considering self-occupation, the hanging account room with the lowest total price is preferred. In the school district, what kind of apartment, orientation, floor and decoration are secondary factors. As long as you don't live by yourself, low total price is the first competitiveness.

The best-selling school district houses are always the lowest in total price, but by no means the best in quality.

five

Mortgage loans will be flooded with inflation.

In the next 10 year, our mortgage will be flooded by inflation.

At present, China's broad money supply M2 is 200 trillion, while it is 20 1 10 trillion, which has doubled in less than seven years. In the past 40 years, the average annual growth rate of M2 in China is 15%.

Interest rates are getting lower and lower, and prices and incomes are getting higher and higher. This is the general trend. Therefore, we can't see whether house prices are going up or down now, and don't be afraid to borrow or borrow less.

The correct approach should be to borrow as much as possible within your own ability, extend the repayment period to the longest, and adopt the method of equal principal and interest. In short, the less the monthly payment, the more cost-effective.

At present, the mortgage interest rate in Shanghai has been as low as 4.35%, and it is equal principal and interest for 20 years, even lower than the mortgage interest rate of 4.75% (5-year LPR). So everyone is talking about preventing credit resources from flowing into the property market. Faced with such a large spread, the whereabouts of funds can be imagined.

Now there is a tax loan in Shanghai, even if you pay taxes on buying and selling real estate. When applying for a mortgage loan, you can also apply for a tax loan. At that time, the bank will give you a bank card, swipe it directly when paying taxes, and then pay it back slowly. The interest rate is 3.5%, which is similar to the provident fund interest rate. The term is 5- 10 year, with a maximum of 500,000 yuan. In other words, the deed tax, individual tax (including inheritance tax) and value-added tax of buying and selling houses can enjoy the lowest interest rate loan.

My familiar loan teacher recently told me that he has been in this business for more than ten years, and he has never seen such a low operating loan interest rate this year, nor has he seen such a fast and easy approval process.

In fact, it can be seen from the tax and fee loans that after the central bank lowered RRR and cut interest rates many times, the money of major banks has overflowed and it is in urgent need of lending.

Mortgage loan business is the safest and most profitable business in the banking industry. Therefore, from this perspective, the top management still encourages the purchase of houses.

six

Double the loan

Every time you change rooms, your loan amount must be at least doubled to make sense.

For example, if you own a 5 million house and the loan is still 2 million, then if the house you replace is 6 million and the loan is increased from 2 million to 3 million, there is no need to change it at all. Because the agency fee deed tax VAT alone is close to 10%, which is about 600,000 yuan. You borrowed 1 10,000 yuan more, but the friction cost of changing houses is still 600,000 yuan.

Replacement, at least double the loan amount, otherwise don't change.

Buying a house makes money by leverage and making money by bank money. When the house price rises sharply, you can choose to buy a house in full or with a small amount of leverage as a last resort, but in the period of stagflation and sideways house prices, you must double the leverage to change houses.

The taboo of housing replacement is flat in and flat out!

seven

Let every house be in debt.

/kloc-0.5 years ago, Shanghai's mother-in-law asked for "a house without a loan" when looking for a son-in-law. Now it seems that it is at least 2-3 times different from the loan in that year.

With the unlimited printing of money by the Federal Reserve and the frequent occurrence of zero and negative interest rates in various countries, the era of global easing has arrived. If you don't recognize this reality, you will lose miserably!

Buying a house in full and paying off all bank loans in advance is the stupidest way to manage money.

If you have a house without a loan in your name, then you should try your best to get it into debt. For example, after the sale, mortgage to buy a house, or mortgage out to buy a house.

Keeping every house for repayment is the most reasonable way to fight inflation, because the money in your hand will become hairy. Therefore, if all the money in your hand belongs to the bank, the faster the speed, the higher your assets.

You must make sure that you always have the bank money in your hand. When it's your turn to soar, house prices can rise to the sky without rising, and they can also fight inflation.

Be sure to remember: reasonable debt is your most effective means to resist inflation!

eight

Where can I buy it and where do I need to be vigilant?

Shenzhen: Buy when you have enough money, whether it's the first set or improvement, whether it's self-occupation or investment, because the housing prices in Shenzhen can't be suppressed at all, and various practices in various places have shown an ambiguous attitude towards the property market.

Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou: It's already the bottom of the house price. There is no need to predict whether it will rise sharply in the future. There is no doubt that it is a slight increase and a long-term increase. Just buy the first set, don't imagine that house prices will fall again. The final result of any economic crisis is that house prices continue to rise. Investment should measure your leverage and monthly ability. It is not recommended to invest with high leverage beyond your ability, because you may explode your position before the house price rises sharply.

Suzhou, Nanjing and Hangzhou: These three cities with obvious recovery just need to enter the market. These three strong second-tier cities belong to cities with strong endogenous demand. Good economic development, high per capita income and sustained population growth are all guarantees for the sustained rise of housing prices. Highly leveraged investment continues to wait and see, waiting for favorable policies.

Nantong, Shenyang and Dalian: Last year, there was a big increase, and there was no obvious adjustment. If it is not urgent, wait and see carefully.

Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao: Last year, the decline was very large, and now it is basically at the end. However, the upward momentum in the later period is obviously insufficient, just need to enter, and investment needs to be cautious.

I have a principle in writing articles, which must include two aspects: discussing values and sharing methodology. Articles without methodology are hooligans. My article must enable readers to acquire new knowledge points and skills, otherwise I would rather not write it, so as not to waste your time and mine.