In the era of "second-hand housing reference price", the property market continues to be strictly regulated.

The regulation of the real estate industry is becoming more and more strict. Wuxi recently issued the "Notice on Establishing the Release Mechanism of Second-hand Housing Transaction Reference Price" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), saying that Wuxi Real Estate Market Management Monitoring Center has formed the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in Wuxi on the basis of investigation and analysis. According to the rough statistics of china securities journal reporter, up to now, six cities, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xi, Ningbo, Shaoxing and Wuxi, have clearly introduced the reference price of second-hand housing transactions.

Experts said that the implementation of the reference price system has improved the supervision of the second-hand housing market and provided a new path for stabilizing the price of second-hand housing. A city with a serious second-hand housing price upside down is more likely to follow up this measure. It is expected that the transaction volume and transaction price of second-hand houses will decrease steadily in the second half of the year, but the annual level may be the same as last year.

Or become the standard of supervision.

According to the notice, Wuxi Real Estate Market Management Monitoring Center will, on the basis of investigation and analysis, exclude abnormal and atypical transaction records on the basis of the online signing price of second-hand houses, form a reference price for second-hand housing transactions in some residential quarters, and publish it on the portal website of Wuxi Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, WeChat WeChat official account, Wuxi Real Estate Market Network and other platforms. The first batch of reference prices for second-hand housing transactions in residential quarters were released 100, and the data collection methods will be continuously optimized according to the changes in the real estate market, and the list of residential quarters will be adjusted and increased in a timely manner, and the reference prices for transactions will be released in a timely manner. In principle, it is updated once a year.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, pointed out that the six cities that have released the reference price mechanism for second-hand housing, except Shaoxing, are not within the statistical range of 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the other five cities belong to cities where second-hand housing prices have risen rapidly. Yan Yuejin predicted that it is more likely that more cities will promote the reference price mechanism of the second-hand housing market, especially the first-and second-tier key cities, and this policy may become the standard for the regulation of the second-hand housing market.

At the beginning of February this year, Shenzhen issued a document for the first time to establish a reference price release mechanism for second-hand housing transactions, and at the same time released the reference price for second-hand housing transactions in 3595 residential quarters in Shenzhen. Later, many banks used this as a reference for mortgage loans. According to the statistics of Ping An Securities, since Shenzhen implemented the guidance price in February, the monthly turnover of second-hand houses has dropped for three consecutive days, and in June, the turnover fell below 3,000 sets, down nearly 80% year-on-year.

Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center believes that the second-hand housing reference price mechanism has obvious effect, but the long-term effect needs to strengthen supervision measures. Shenzhen, as the first city in China to implement the reference price system for second-hand housing transactions, has great control and the most obvious policy effect. Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center said that this measure has a great impact on market expectations, and the market transaction scale and price level have shrunk to a certain extent. At the same time, the regulatory authorities also need to strictly require that the listing price must fluctuate within the reference price range, and severely punish intermediaries that are too much higher than the reference price to ensure the long-term effect of the policy.

Mortgage interest rate increases

More and more hot cities began to tighten credit. On July 23rd, the Shanghai Headquarters of the People's Bank of China held a meeting with banks in Shanghai to determine the issue of raising the mortgage interest rate. Shanghai's first home loan interest rate was raised from 4.65% to 5%, and the second home loan interest rate was raised from 5.25% to 5.7%.

Guo Sheng Securities said that Shanghai has always been one of the cities with the lowest mortgage interest rate. After changing the anchor, the Shanghai Stock Exchange did not add points to the five-year LPR, but dropped 20 points to get the first set of interest rates of 4.65%. After this increase, Shanghai's first home loan interest rate is still lower than the average interest rate of first-tier cities. But even so, the upward adjustment of mortgage interest rate fully reflects the attitude of the regulatory authorities to the regulation of the real estate market.

The agency said that if the loan is 2 million yuan and the mortgage is repaid in 30 years, the average monthly repayment of the first suite before the release of the New Deal is 103 12.74 yuan, and the average monthly repayment after the increase is 10736.43 yuan, up by 4. 1%. Under the original interest rate, the average monthly repayment of the second apartment is 1 1044.07 yuan, and after the increase, the average monthly repayment is 1 1608.05438+0 yuan, which is increased by 5. 1%.

Guo Sheng Securities believes that this policy is expected to have an impact on some housing demand. The increase of mortgage interest rate will increase the speculative cost of real estate speculators, reduce the expected income and weaken their enthusiasm for real estate speculation.

Recently, some banks in Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other cities have raised mortgage interest rates one after another, and the lending cycle has also been extended. Foshan Agricultural Bank recently announced that it will raise the interest rate of portfolio loans by 85BP, and in order to meet the demand of the first home, the second-hand housing loan business of some banks has also been suspended.

Emphasize symptoms and root causes

In addition to strengthening the regulation of the second-hand housing market in many places, a number of regulatory authorities have recently intensively voiced their voices to strengthen the regulation of the property market.

On July 23, the Notice on Continuing to Rectify and Regulate the Order of the Real Estate Market issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other eight departments pointed out that it would take about three years to achieve a marked improvement in the order of the real estate market. Violations of laws and regulations have been effectively curbed and the supervision system has been continuously improved. The symposium on real estate held on July 24th once again emphasized that we should adhere to the goal of "three stabilities" and implement a long-term mechanism to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to attach great importance to the new situation and new problems in the current real estate market, always tighten the string of real estate regulation and control, and unswervingly promote the implementation of the long-term mechanism. It is necessary to fully implement the main responsibility of the city government, respond and deal with problems quickly when they are found, and take targeted policies and measures in time.

"The notice of the eight departments has controlled the whole process of real estate development, trading, leasing and property management. Clearly put forward the establishment of an institutionalized and normalized rectification mechanism, and conduct interviews and accountability for cities with outstanding problems in the real estate market order and failing to properly fulfill their regulatory responsibilities in time. It is expected that the rectification will be stricter. " Mao Dapeng, an analyst with the Index Division of the Central Reference Institute, told the china securities journal reporter.

Ping An Securities believes that the notice of the eight departments emphasizes adhering to both the symptoms and root causes, long-term rectification, establishing an institutionalized and normalized rectification mechanism, standardizing the order of the real estate market from the source, and further improving the long-term real estate mechanism. On the one hand, it will help to "stabilize housing prices, stabilize land prices and stabilize expectations", promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and the industry will fluctuate or narrow significantly in the future; On the other hand, with the increasingly standardized rental market, the implementation of "simultaneous rental and purchase" is expected to alleviate the outstanding housing problems in big cities.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that since the beginning of this year, the national real estate market has been regulated more than 320 times. Among them, the central departments have regulated policies for more than 40 times. "The central government once again voiced its voice to the real estate market intensively, intensified its real estate regulation and control policies, and significantly upgraded its regulation methods, intensity and details. The "toolbox" of regulation has been continuously enriched, the prudent management of real estate finance has been strengthened, a multi-agent housing system has been established, a centralized land supply mechanism for hot cities has been established, and a linkage mechanism of "people, housing, land and money" has been established. On the whole, the trend of strict real estate regulation in the second half of the year will not change. "