Who will have more money in the future, the 5 million people who bought first-line real estate and the 8 million people who managed wealth?

Answer this question objectively, otherwise it will be criticized to pieces. ...

Let's talk about the house first What is the future value-added space of a house worth 5 million in first-tier cities? Let's give an objective example. In the first 20 years, house prices rose by 10 times, so the average annual income was 50%, which was awesome. Many cities cannot reach this level.

Now, the inflection point of real estate has appeared, and under the control of policies, the growth rate of real estate has dropped significantly. Assuming that we can only quadruple in the next 20 years (which is also scary), the average annualized income is 25%. Then at this rate, in 20 years, 5 million houses will become 25 million. I'm being objective enough. Of course, this puts aside the possibility of future house depreciation.

Next, let's take a look at 8 million financial management. According to the current risk-free interest rate of 3%-4%, taking 20 years as an example, 800 * (1+4%) 20 =17.53 million is also 20 years. Compared with this, it is obvious that people with houses will be richer in the future, but 800% of them only have four talents. If you are a professional investor, it will make people laugh.

Let's give an example. A listed company of a bank, such as the four major domestic banks, can realize an annualized income of 6% and a dividend yield of 4% in a 20-year cycle, so 800 * (1+10%) 20 = 53838.

Some people will wonder, why can't the annualized house reach 50% and can't keep up with the annualized bank stock 10%? Very simple, because the appreciation of the house is simple interest, and the appreciation of the stock is compound interest, so the conclusion is completely different. Finally, I want to say that both the house and the financial management may lose money. China is no longer China, and has passed the era of stimulating GDP growth through fixed assets investment. In Kondratiev's cycle, no matter what assets, they can't escape the development cycle. The stock will not keep rising, and so will the house.

Anyway, you can have more money or no money. The key is how to do it If you buy a house in a first-tier city with 5 million yuan now, the future house price will not only stop rising, but also drop sharply. Of course, losing money is impossible. After all, the house is still there, but your money is less than 5 million. And if you spend 8 million to manage your money and don't know how to manage it, then you will lose money faster and you may lose everything. So let's analyze and see how these two ways can make more money instead of losing money.

How to preserve and increase value When buying a house and investing in real estate, we should focus on the rate of return. If the rate of return can be around 10%, it can be considered. If you can't reach it, forget it. It is better to buy wealth management products. Let's analyze what kind of real estate is worth investing in now.

1. The rent can cover a month's house.

If the rent of a house can offset the monthly payment now or in a few years, then such a house can be invested. Even if you can't sell it in the future, you can rent it out. Anyway, there is no pressure. Then, as a fixed asset, the house has a strong ability to maintain and increase value. However, if the price of the house is already high and the rent accounts for less than 1/3 of the monthly payment, then there is no need to buy such a house. If house prices fall in the future, then you will be eager to sell, and then you can only sell at a loss. Therefore, buying a house now focuses on how much you can rent every month. If the house price drops by about 30% in the next few years, can you bear it? If so, you can invest.

2. A house that can be used as a host family

In recent years, homestays are very popular, and many tourist cities are carrying out such activities in large numbers. Now many tourists like to live in homestays. Last year, the whole family traveled to Guilin on National Day. I rented a three-bedroom and two-bedroom homestay to make you feel at home. Then this year's National Day trip to Xiamen is also a rented homestay. So if the city where the house is located is a tourist city, and it is near popular tourist attractions, then 5 million yuan can buy several such houses for investment. After buying a homestay, the annualized income 10% is definitely no problem.

How to quickly increase the value of 8 million wealth management? Personally, I suggest that your 8 million funds be divided into three parts, one for stocks, one for Public Offering of Fund, and the last for time deposit in the bank.

1, buy stocks

Why don't you know how to buy stocks? A lot of people will think so. I buy stocks because I want high returns. Stocks can give you a chance to make a lot of money. It is precisely because of the opportunity that many talents speculate in stocks.

It doesn't matter if you don't understand stock trading now, you can learn, as long as you don't buy stocks with higher valuation. You don't buy stocks today, you sell them tomorrow. You should buy blue chips and leave them there. So you don't understand, it doesn't matter, just learn the value of long-term investment slowly.

2. Buy publicly issued funds

Why buy Public Offering of Fund? For most office workers, there is no time to study stocks. So you can't put too much money into stocks, but you should use some money to buy Public Offering of Fund. Public Offering of Fund has full-time fund managers who are very professional, so the chances of making money from the fund are much stronger than ours. You can give them some money to manage.

You can invest in the fund. In this way, it is easy to realize the annualized income of about 10% of your own funds.

3. Bank time deposit

This is a time deposit, not a current deposit. If the third fund is used to buy bank time deposits, the annual income will be around 4%. This part of the funds is mainly for emergency use at ordinary times. It is ok to deposit it for three months and then deposit it at maturity.

How much are the three funds? This is mainly based on your own risk tolerance. If the risk tolerance is high, stocks and funds can account for 3/4, and the rest can be fixed deposits; If the risk tolerance is low, the stock 1/5 or so, the fund 1/5, and the rest 3/5. Only in this way can we rationally allocate our own funds and realize the preservation and appreciation.

So through the above methods, I think whether buying a house or managing money, we can become richer.

If it was before 20 12, it cost 5 million to buy a house in a first-tier city, and by 20 19, it has doubled. According to the average annual rate of return of 5%, 8 million to 20 19 years just exceeded10 million. Obviously, at this point in time, buying a house at that time may be richer.

Times are constantly changing. Today, I believe many people have found that the mobility of real estate is getting worse and worse. Although house prices seem to be rising, it is difficult to sell second-hand houses without price reduction, which is cheaper than new houses 10% or more.

After 20 12, if you buy a house with 5 million yuan, the average person can't win 8 million yuan for financial management. In 20 19, the house price has been at the highest level in history. At this time, it is difficult to maintain and increase the value of a small house bought by 5 million, and it is more likely to depreciate sharply in the future. Those who hold 8 million yuan for financial management may bargain-hunting when asset prices plummet, realize the preservation and appreciation, and even buy the same two properties.

The rent-to-sale ratio of first-tier cities can't even reach 2%, and the house rent of 5 million yuan can't even reach 654.38+10,000 yuan. But even if you choose a relatively conservative three-year certificate of deposit, you can earn more than 330 thousand a year.

In the past two decades, real estate is indeed the only option to outperform inflation, with stable income. People who invested in real estate in the early days basically earned it, and some people realized financial freedom through real estate speculation, which is the greatest irony of hard work and getting rich.

Now there is a surplus of real estate, and new projects are still being launched, but the deposits in the hands of residents have become less and less. After deducting all loans, the net savings of households is only 20 trillion yuan, and they simply can't afford to buy a house.

On the one hand, the economic growth rate is declining and the number of jobs continues to decrease. On the other hand, with the advent of an aging society, the fertility rate has declined under high housing prices. In the future, the vacancy rate of real estate will be higher and higher, and the value of the house is destined to return to rationality, which is a relatively reasonable position.

Cash liquidity is the best, 8 million yuan has reached the threshold of entering private banks, and wealth management income is expected to reach about 6%. Although it can't beat inflation, it wins in stability. Once asset prices fall in the future, there will be opportunities to bargain-hunting, thus realizing wealth appreciation.

In the past, 5 million houses did outperform 8 million wealth management, but in the next 20 years, I believe that the income of 8 million wealth management will be higher.

Who will have more money in the future, the 5 million people who bought first-line real estate and the 8 million people who managed wealth?

First of all, let me study the real estate in first-tier cities. At present, the housing price in China's first tier cities is already the highest in the world, while the property in China is only rented for 70 years, and the land is not owned by the buyer. In addition, our country also has the so-called shared area invented by Li Ka-shing, and the house we actually bought is only 60% to 70% of the area in Europe and America. From the perspective of value, China's first tier cities's housing prices are inflated and frothy, and there is no room for appreciation. Coupled with China's policy of not speculating in real estate and a large number of surplus properties, houses in first-tier cities will fall as long as you buy them. Therefore, in the next 20 years, housing prices in first-tier cities will fall for a long time.

Someone can tell me that I buy a house for rent in a first-tier city and collect rent. It is unrealistic to expect a return on investment in first-tier cities in China. The rental return rate of houses rented in first-tier cities is less than 2%, which is much lower than the bank interest. In other words, renting houses in first-tier cities now loses money after buying a house. So it is wrong to think that the rent of the house can offset the monthly payment. At present, houses in first-tier cities in China have no other functions except living by themselves. Therefore, the property worth 5 million in first-tier cities will definitely depreciate in 20 years.

Secondly, let's take a look at 8 million financial management. According to the current risk-free wealth management products, the yield is 4%-5%. Calculated in 20 years, it is 800 * (1+4%) 20 =17.53 million.

If you let the wealth manager, a more professional wealth management organization, help you manage your finances, the income will be higher. Wealth Manager is a professional wealth management platform with a history of 20 years. As a wealth expert in China, he specializes in finding the best investment opportunities for individuals.

Fortune Club has been active in China's wealth management market for a long time and is at the top of the industry. He has accumulated rich theoretical knowledge and practical experience in personal family wealth management.

Wealth manager. Com platform is the value depression of investors' investment, and is committed to creating wealth for investors.

Values of wealth managers: use experts to cultivate new profit growth points of enterprises and create wealth opportunities for investors to invest in equity. In this world, there is no faster way to make money than selling equity, and there is no investment that makes more money than investing equity. Wealth manager is the most valuable equity investment platform. Docking funds for high-quality projects and tapping wealth opportunities for investors.

The wealth manager has a group of senior experts, and the wealth club is led by China JPMorgan Chase and Hong Hao, the father of private equity fund.

Therefore, together with top wealth experts, we should seize the opportunity of future mainstream wealth appreciation and realize wealth freedom.

This question is hard to say. If the property price rises sharply, it is also possible that the property of 5 million will suddenly become10,000,200,000. But if property prices fall, it is possible that 5 million will suddenly become 2 million. Of course, capital is also one thing. If prices rise sharply, the financial yield is far from winning. Usually, the purchasing power of 8 million at this time is 8 million, and it may only be 4 million in the future. However, if there is a financial crisis, the purchasing power of 8 million yuan may reach100000,150000. Therefore, from the perspective of the future, we can't compare who is richer.

Teacher Jin believes that no matter who owns a set of first-line real estate worth 5 million yuan or who owns 8 million yuan, it is necessary to properly allocate family assets, rather than a single item with outstanding assets. What do you mean?

If your family's assets are mainly real estate, then when the financial crisis, economic crisis or real estate bubble, family assets will definitely be the most affected. Why? Because property prices will drop sharply during this period. This kind of risk needs to be reasonably distinguished and avoided. Many people will say that if there is a decline, there will be an increase. If there is a rise, there is a profit, and you can't always think about falling. In the process of rational allocation of family assets, we should not aim at maximizing income, but at stability. So the risk of differentiation is the main one. The same is true of holding too many money funds.

The allocation of assets cannot be a single asset, but diversified assets, including currency, real estate, securities assets, wealth management, savings, insurance, foreign exchange, gold and so on. Only by putting together products that can hedge risks, risks will be dispersed, and the risks of household assets will not be caused by market influences such as financial crisis, economic crisis, inflation and deflation.

If we compare the 5 million single property and 8 million single currency for financial management with the assets rationally allocated by the family, Mr. Jin thinks that the assets rationally allocated by the family will definitely be richer in the future.

This problem lacks a point in time. It is not clear whether the 5 million people who bought first-tier real estate bought it in 2008 or now. The 8 million people who do financial management earn money and know less about this person. Whether it is financial management or financial management determines whether he will be richer in the future.

First, the buyer's result. If you bought a house in 2008 or 20 10, now your assets have increased by n times, which will definitely not be worse than those who manage money. After all, house prices have increased by more than ten times in the past decade, and the capital of 5 million has appreciated to tens of millions. However, if you buy a house in a first-tier city now, 5 million can't buy the real estate in the core area, and the house price will be regulated by the policy in the later period. It may be difficult to buy a house now, and it will be difficult to have more money in the future.

Second, 8 million financial management. 8 million financial management depends on what to invest. If you only invest in guaranteed wealth management products, the annual interest rate is 4%, only 320,000. After five years, you will get more than 654.38+0.5 million, and the asset appreciation will not be much. However, if you invest in the stock market, a bull market may come five years later, becoming tens of millions, richer than people who buy houses.

Third, the risk of uncertainty. The uncertain risk here refers to the 8 million people who manage money. If you don't have a certain strength, you may invest in high-risk assets and become poor in a year or two, because financial management is not a random investment, it needs skills and needs to be decided in combination with your own risk tolerance.

To sum up: if you buy a house in the first line, you must make a profit in the early stage. It is certainly impossible to expect the house to appreciate in the future. 8 million financial management is risky. If you can stay away from high-risk investment, you may outperform the buyers in the future. After all, there are many low-risk financial products, but if you choose high-risk investment, there are uncertain factors.

First of all, this problem lacks a time latitude. How long does the future mean, five years or fifteen years?

Suppose it is five years, I suggest you still take 8 million as your financial management. Because in the short to medium term and from the policy point of view, it is unlikely that the investment property will appreciate greatly in a few years except for maintaining the value, which does not include all kinds of taxes and fees and capital occupation costs in the real estate transaction process, so the probability of buying a real estate for five years is high. And if you invest 8 million yuan in the bank to do wealth management, guarantee the annualized interest rate of 5%, and the principal of 8 million yuan in five years can reach at least100000. Of course, this has not taken into account the inflation factor.

Suppose the time latitude is 15. Of course, if you are patient enough and can afford it, I suggest you invest 5 million yuan in the real estate in the core area of first-tier cities. Judging from the recent situation of 15, the appreciation of first-line buildings has reached 10 15 times (taking Beijing as an example, the house price in the core area was about 6,000 yuan/square meter in 2005), so considering the future market maturity and macro policies, it is conservatively estimated that the appreciation will be at least 300%, that is, 5 million yuan will reach 20,000 yuan. It has reached the level of10.5 million /m2, which is basically the same as that of new york, Tokyo and Hongkong. If the investment and financial management is 15, then 8 million yuan will be realized, that is, the level of140,000, which does not include the investment risk that investment and financial management span the economic cycle for such a long time. If there is an economic crisis, the capital loss is unknown.

The above is just a simple and rough test. I just want to explain that, from a long-term and spatial point of view, holding high-quality real estate is more valuable and advantageous than holding currency.

We can analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these two situations.

Bought a 5 million property in a first-tier city. Under normal circumstances, it must be a relatively biased place. Because the housing price in first-tier cities, which is better in the region, should reach 10 million per square meter, so it is also a house of 50 to 60 square meters. Obviously, not many people will buy this, so they can only buy it in remote places. Even in remote places, it is 67. 1 10,000 square meters. In this way, it will be seventy or eighty square meters. Housing prices in first-tier cities are already very high, and there is not much room for further appreciation. So there is only one situation, that is, demolition or something. Otherwise, it can only preserve the value, and it is difficult to appreciate.

8 million to buy wealth management products, as long as you don't want to get rich, you can buy them normally, with an annualized rate of return of about 4%. Then, the annual interest will be more than 300 thousand. If you can buy a wealth management product with an annualized rate of return of 5% or 6%, the annual income can reach 400,000 to 480,000, which is very good. It's hard to say if you buy high-interest and high-risk products.

In a word, I think it is better to manage money.

In fact, the problem is not clear.

First of all, what kind of financial management is 8 million? What are the financial products? What is this person's financial ability? These are not explained, so we don't know what the future income results of these 8 million people will be if they do financial management.

5 million to buy a first-line real estate, according to the current housing prices in Shenzhen, if it is a new house, it will probably be a house a little farther away from Nanshan District and Futian District, such as Huangtian. Personally, I think that houses in first-tier cities are relatively stable, which means that high housing prices are relatively stable. But specifically, the price increase space of this house depends on a series of conditions such as location, transportation and surrounding infrastructure, so as to judge the price increase range of this house.

Finally, we are not sure what the definition of the future is. The last three days are also the future, and the last thirty years are also the future. If the subject insists on comparing whether real estate is more suitable for long-term investment or financial management is more suitable for long-term investment, then the subject of this proposal makes IRR analysis through specific circumstances and then makes a judgment.

Simply asking this question, no one can clap their heads and think that you probably just want a probability answer.

Risk refers to the uncertainty of cost or expense and the uncertainty of income. There are two completely different investment methods, and it is impossible to tell which one has higher investment returns. Generally speaking, the greater the risk, the higher the income.

Investment risk and income are directly linked to personal risk tolerance and investment experience. If you are good at investing in fixed assets and have corresponding investment experience, then buying a house is obviously better than investing in financial management, otherwise you will not buy it here and now. On the contrary, if you are good at investing in financial management, then investing in financial management is obviously better than investing in fixed assets.

However, the information given in the inscription is asymmetric. How does a 5 million compare with an 8 million? Assuming that the risk and return of fixed assets and investment and financial management are equal, it is obvious that the latter can obtain higher returns.

Real estate should be classified as a high-risk wealth management product if it is to be classified as a risk level, because it fluctuates greatly. Then investing in real estate should be compared with investing in stocks, not with risk-free products such as deposits or government bonds.

If analyzed by historical data, it is more advantageous to invest in stocks. The population of first-tier cities has been in an inflow state, and house prices can be said to only rise and not fall, but the rent is not considerable, and the rental return rate is usually below 2%. Investing in housing in first-tier cities is just like investing in the four major state-owned bank stocks, because the four major state-owned bank stocks almost only go up and down, the market value continues to expand, and the dividend is basically stable at around 4%-5%.

Assuming that the house was bought around 20 10-20 12, the first-tier cities have doubled up to now, while the four major banking stocks such as ICBC were around 2.5 yuan, 2 yuan, and now 5.8 yuan has more than tripled, and the dividend yield is much higher than the rental rate of the house.

If we simply analyze from historical data, investment bank stocks are more effective, not to mention the market value of 5 million house prices compared with 8 million cash.

If analyzed from the future, the current house price is at a high level, and there is not much room for a sharp rise in the future. However, the P/E ratio of the four major state-owned banks is still hovering around 7 times. Based on the current P/E ratio, the expected rate of return is still as high as 14.28%. Therefore, it is obvious that investing in houses in first-tier cities is far less than buying shares in the four major state-owned banks, not to mention that one is 5 million and the other is 8 million.