What are the cities with the biggest real estate bubble?

The area of cities in China is very different, so it is necessary to limit the scope of urban housing prices. For example, the areas of Xiamen, Sanya and Shenzhen are only 1.699, 1.920 and 1.997 square kilometers respectively, while the areas of Chongqing, Beijing, Hangzhou and Chengdu are 82,400, 1.640 and/kloc-respectively.

In this paper, I limit the house price I participate in the comparison to the "central city", and the second-hand house price shall prevail. Because a large number of cities, such as Beishang and Shenzhen, have few new sites in central cities, prices are often controlled by a single attribute.

/kloc-After 0/0 years, the list of cities eligible to compete for the top ten housing prices in "Central City" is as follows:

Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Taipei, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Sanya, Nanjing, Tianjin, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Suzhou, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Ningbo, Dalian, Hefei, Jinan, Zhuhai, Wenzhou and Dongguan.

My judgment is that after 10 years, the following cities will become the most expensive cities in 10 years:

First place: Hong Kong

No serious impact of major accidents (such as earthquake, war, tsunami, etc.). ), after 10, Hong Kong will still maintain the position of "the first house price in China". At present, the housing price in the central city of Hong Kong is basically about twice that in the central cities of Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Although Hong Kong's economic aggregate will be surpassed by more mainland cities, its position as "the largest gateway for China's economy to the world" will not change. 65% of China's foreign investment and nearly 60% of its foreign investment are conducted through Hongkong. Hongkong is also the first stop for China mainland funds to allocate assets overseas. Huge mainland funds and scarce supply will continue to push up Hong Kong housing prices.

Second place: Beijing

Beijing's current property market regulation is the most severe among mainland cities. Looking forward to the future 10, Beijing will become the only "super-class city" in China. Beijing has three major advantages, all of which are irreplaceable: First, Beijing is a gathering place for the headquarters of state-owned enterprises, and currently has the headquarters of the world's top 500; Second, Beijing is the largest capital center in China. At present, the collected capital is about 1.3 times that of Shanghai and 1.3 times that of Hong Kong. Third, Beijing is the city with the largest concentration of unicorn enterprises in the world, accounting for a quarter of the world and more than half of China.

The third point is Beijing's greatest advantage. This means that the volume of Beijing's new economy may be equivalent to "Shenzhen+Shanghai+Hangzhou". In the future, unicorn enterprises will bring more funds to Beijing and build billionaires in batches. The emergence of xiong'an new area can't divert the purchasing power of Beijing property market, because houses in xiong'an new area are basically not for sale, so the rich in North China will still concentrate on buying houses in Beijing. The natural environment of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will be greatly improved in the future 10.

Third place: Shenzhen

At present, the capital gathered in Shenzhen is about 60% of that in Shanghai; The actual resident population in Shenzhen is about 80% of that in Shanghai. But the area of Shenzhen is only 30% of that of Shanghai. In other words, the population and capital density of Shenzhen is at least twice that of Shanghai.

PCT international invention patents owned by Shenzhen account for half of the country; The total market value of listed companies in Shenzhen is equivalent to "Shanghai+Guangzhou"; The number of unicorn enterprises in Shenzhen is only slightly less than that in Shanghai. There are more large-scale scientific and technological enterprises in Shenzhen than in Shanghai. In fact, Shenzhen is the second largest economic center in China after Beijing, and its market freedom and innovative cultural atmosphere are obviously better than Shanghai.

The supply of "saleable residential" land in Shenzhen is 20 17. Average 10, among the four first-tier cities with an actual population of more than 20 million, the average supply of residential land in Shenzhen is less than a quarter of that in Beijing and Shanghai. Shenzhen has the largest registered population and permanent population among the four cities every year. How to control the future housing prices in Shenzhen is an unimaginable thing.

Fourth place: Shanghai

Shanghai is still a city "constantly crowned by Beijing". Once something good happens, and Beijing is not prepared to take it for itself, the first thing that comes to mind is basically Shanghai. In 20 18, Shanghai will be the first free port in the mainland, and hold the "China International Import Expo" which represents China entering a new era. In last year's 2035 edition of General Regulations, Shanghai was positioned as the highest standard of China city.

At present, Shanghai has gathered more funds than Hong Kong, second only to Beijing. China's financial factor market is basically in Shanghai. In addition, Shanghai is the second gateway for China's economy to connect with the world. Unfortunately, Shanghai is not only far behind Beijing in the development of new economy, but also surpassed by Shenzhen and approached by Hangzhou. Shanghai's culture pays attention to order and sentiment in its bones, which is incompatible with the grassroots, wildness and tenacity of the new economy. This is the weakness of Shanghai, which is hard to change.

Fifth place: Hangzhou

Hangzhou's economy is very active. At present, the number of unicorn enterprises exceeds Shenzhen, and even exceeds Shanghai in some statistics. The total market value of listed companies in Hangzhou exceeds that of Guangzhou. Comprehensive evaluation shows that Hangzhou ranks in the top four in the new economy, second only to Guangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. At present, the total amount of funds gathered in Hangzhou is about 3.7 trillion, second only to the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Hangzhou, backed by Zhejiang Province, the most developed private enterprise in China, has a reasonable economic structure and vibrant ownership, and is the closest city to "North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen" among the strong second-tier cities. Coupled with superior natural conditions and profound cultural accumulation, Hangzhou's future housing prices are also very worthy of optimism.

Sixth place: Sanya

Hainan property market took a major turning point in September 20 17, and many people have not fully realized it. 2065438+September 22, 2007, Hainan implemented a total ban on reclamation and permanently stopped the development of new export real estate projects in the central ecological core area. On September 29th, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Hainan Province issued a notice to stop approving the construction of commercial housing with a building area of 100 square meters (including 100 square meters).

At the "two sessions" on 20 18, the secretary of Hainan Provincial Party Committee emphasized that Hainan cannot become a "processing factory" for real estate, nor can it "build as many as the outside world wants".

This means that the real estate supply in Hainan will be strictly controlled, especially the sea view rooms will become very scarce. A number of Hainan cities with good coastline, such as Sanya, will enter the "aristocratic" era of high-quality housing. The evolution of American real estate market tells us that housing prices in two types of cities will remain high for a long time: the first type is financial centers and technology centers, especially cities where "finance and technology take care of everything"; The second category is holiday resorts with beautiful coastline and warm climate.

In the United States, the second type of cities are located in Hawaii and Florida. In China, it can only be distributed in Hainan. The most typical, of course, is Sanya.

Seventh place: Xiamen

The housing prices in Xiamen are so high that many people don't understand. Because Xiamen's population and economic aggregate are not outstanding. Even in Fujian province, GDP is not as good as Quanzhou's, and overall funds are not as good as Fuzhou's.

But don't forget: Xiamen has a "warm climate+beautiful coastline", which is comparable to Sanya alone, finding the first reason for high housing prices. In addition, Xiamen is also a city with cultural heritage. Of course, Xiamen also has an active private economy and a new economy. In 20 17 years, there were a-share IPO companies in Xiamen 10, exceeding most provincial capitals.

So Xiamen means "Shenzhen+Sanya". As for Xiamen Island, there is an island in the sea and a lake in the island, but it has an undeniable grace from heaven. The population growth rate has kept Xiamen in the top 8 in China in recent years. In Fujian, Xiamen is the only city that has got rid of the "restriction of regional characteristics". Therefore, although the housing price in Xiamen is a little overdrawn, it will remain high for a long time, especially in Xiamen Island, where space is scarce.

Eighth place: Guangzhou

In the recent bull market, the rising order of housing prices in first-tier cities is "Shenzhen-Shanghai-Beijing-Guangzhou", and Guangzhou belongs to the nature of following and making up the rising of first-tier cities. I'm afraid the same is true of the next wave of market.

At present, the total amount of funds gathered in Guangzhou is 5.2 trillion, less than half of that in Beijing, equivalent to 72% in Shenzhen and 1.40% in Hangzhou. This shows that Guangzhou has a strong economic strength and still maintains considerable advantages as a "strong second-tier city". But the problem is that Guangzhou has been surpassed by Hangzhou in terms of the number of unicorn enterprises, the market value of listed companies and the activity of private enterprises. Therefore, the next 10 year is crucial for Guangzhou 10 year-well done, which can shorten the distance with Shenzhen; Maybe it will really be surpassed by Hangzhou. As for housing prices, as Guangzhou is still developing Nansha, a big city, and the central area of Guangzhou is expanding, the increase of housing prices in the central area will be limited.

Ninth, tenth

In the next 10 year, there will be nine or ten houses in the central area between Taipei, Nanjing, Chengdu, Tianjin and Qingdao.

At present, the housing price in Zhuhai is relatively high, but the ranking may move down in the future 10, because Zhuhai has a low level of cities, a small population (which cannot meet the standards for building subways), and its public service resources are not as good as those of established provincial capitals and municipalities directly under the central government (such as Tianjin).

As for Wenzhou, because it is far away from the central city, it is difficult to develop itself into a central city, and house prices will continue to be high and sideways, with no significant investment value. Wenzhou businessmen have mastered a lot of wealth and will hold Wenzhou housing prices for a long time. From the end of 20 15 to the end of 20 17, the number of primary school students in Wenzhou decreased, which is a bad signal.

The "dim starlight" of star-rated cities and the rise of strong cities are the basic characteristics of China's urban competition in the past 10, and will run through the next decade; In the next decade, "second-rate municipalities" will also be "dim". In the future, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Xi, Hefei and other cities will usher in a period of great development.

Eight cities with the biggest real estate bubbles in the world

UBS Group AG Group AG warned that the rising rate of house prices in some cities around the world has shown a potentially unsustainable state, among which eight cities are facing the risk of bubbles, and these cities are marked in red.

Toronto: In UBS's report, Toronto's bubble risk index is as high as 2. 12, ranking first in the world. In the past five years, the average house price in this Canadian city has increased by nearly 50% compared with 20 1 1, and the bubble risk has greatly increased.

Stockholm: The bubble risk index is 2.02, ranking second in the world after Toronto. After adjusting the inflation index, the house price in this Nordic city has doubled in the past 12 years.

Munich: The bubble risk index is 1.92, ranking third in the world after Toronto and Stockholm.

Vancouver/Sydney: The bubble risk indices are all 1.80. As far as Sydney is concerned, since 1980, the house price in Australia's largest city has increased by 3.5% annually. As far as this indicator is concerned, Sydney is second to none among major cities in the world.

London: The bubble risk index is 1.77. In the past 10 years, house prices in this British city have increased by 15%.

Hong Kong: The bubble risk index is 1.74. The per capita living area in Hong Kong is only 14 square meters, or 150 square feet. By contrast, in Milan, Italy, you only need to work for 5.7 years to buy an apartment of 60 square meters or 650 square feet. No wonder Milan's bubble risk index is as low as 0.09!

Amsterdam: The foam risk index is 1.59, which exceeds the level of 1.50.

According to the definition of UBS, cities whose index exceeds 1.50 are at risk of real estate bubble. The bigger the index, the higher the risk, which is the case in the above eight cities.

If the index is between 0.5 and 1.5, it belongs to a city with overvalued property. European cities in this category include Paris (1.3 1), Zurich (1.08), Frankfurt, Germany (0.92) and Geneva, Switzerland (0.83). The United States has San Francisco (1.26) and Los Angeles (1.13); Asia has Tokyo (0.90).

If the index is between -0.5 and 0.5, it belongs to cities with reasonable property valuation, including Boston (0.45), Singapore (0.32), new york (0.20) and Milan (0.09).

If the index is between-1.5 and -0.5, it belongs to a city with low property valuation. Chicago, for example, its index is only -0.66:

Looking at the increase in house prices last year, after adjusting the inflation index, Toronto is as high as 20%, which is also the highest in the world, followed by nearly 20% in Hong Kong, and more than 10% in Amsterdam, Sydney and Munich.

In the past five years, after adjusting the inflation index, San Francisco, Munich and Sydney reached or exceeded10%; Toronto and Stockholm are close to 10%.

Bankers believe that once a city's average annual house price rises at a rate of 10%, it is expected to double for seven consecutive years, and this situation does not seem to last long.

Last year, among the cities tracked by UBS, only three major cities did not see a significant increase in house prices, namely London, Milan and Singapore.

If we look at it from another angle, China and Hongkong are the best in the world relative to the affordability of housing prices.

Citing the list of "International Housing Affordability in 20 17 years" by Demographia, an American urban planning consultancy, it is said that Hong Kong has been ranked first for eight consecutive years, and local housing prices are among the "extremely unaffordable".

The report shows that the housing affordability in Hong Kong has further deteriorated in the past two years, rising from 18. 1 times in 20 16 years to 19.4 times, and it is at an unprecedented high. This means that an ordinary Hong Kong family has to eat and drink 19.4 years before they can afford a house.