Good real estate stocks

The number of real estate stocks in the securities market is still increasing.

Evergrande Real Estate, Ocean Shipping Service and China Resources Vientiane Life have entered the listing procedure, and Yuexiu Real Estate165438+1October 23rd disclosed the listing of the property to be split. Not long ago, Jinke Service and Sunac Service successfully went public in Hong Kong. ...

Shortly before this fiery scene, a number of new real estate stocks broke one after another, as well as the overall correction of the real estate sector, and Poly Real Estate, as the industry leader, also received the first negative rating report.

The insiders believe that the current industry has entered a new round of calm adjustment cycle, and the market's understanding of the property management industry will enter a more reasonable level in the future, from the overall optimism of the industry to the inspection of various companies.

Obviously, these will not stop the pace of real estate listing. CITIC Securities predicts that the IPO financing scale of property management companies in the fourth quarter of 2020 will far exceed the sum of the first three quarters of 2020.

Gather and disperse

165438+122 October, the news of ocean service was reported by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The next evening, Yuexiu Property announced that it was considering the possibility of splitting the property management business and listing it on the main board of the Stock Exchange. At the same time, there is market news that China Resources Vientiane Life Insurance will be listed in 65438+February.

165438+1On October 22nd, Evergrande Real Estate held a listing press conference 54 days after submitting the prospectus, revealing the news of the upcoming listing transaction.

Not long ago, Jinke Service rang the bell at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 165438+ 10/7, and closed at HK$ 44.7 that day, which was the same as the issue price. After the stock price bottomed out the next day, there was another wave of rise. It closed at HK$ 49.6 on 24th, up 10.96% from the issue price. On165438+1October 19, Sunac rang the bell and closed at 14. 14, up 2 1.9%.

However, not long ago, new real estate stocks were still in the "breaking tide".

65438+1October19th, Zhuo Yue Commercial Enterprise Services went public, and the closing price on the first day was 1 1 HK$, which was about 3% higher than the issue price of 10.68. However, in the following trading days, its share price fluctuated and fell.1closed below the issue price of 65438 on October 27th, and it is still breaking.

During this period, the first service was listed on1October 22nd 10, and closed at HK$ 1.76 on the same day, down 26.67% from the issue price of HK$ 2.4. The wind of real estate stocks has changed.

1October 30th 10, Hejing Youhuo and Shimao Service ring the bell on the same day. Hejing Youhuo broke on the day of listing and closed dismally with a decline of 22.94%, while Shimao Service once fell below the issue price1HK$ 6.6, and finally barely maintained the issue price.

However, only on the second trading day (165438+10.2), Shimao Service fell below the issue price and closed at 16.5 Hong Kong dollars. On that day, Shoufu and Hejing Youhuo closed at HK$ 1.39 and HK$ 5.97 respectively, down 43.5% and 24.3% respectively from the issue price.

In fact, it is not only the breaking of new shares, but also the recent overall adjustment of the real estate sector.

Ke Rui statistics show that from the beginning of this year to1October 30th 10, the average growth rate of 34 real estate stocks was 30%, and the average growth rate was narrowed. Among them, the average decline of 30 real estate stocks in September was about 10%, of which 13 stocks fell more than 10%.

Differentiation performance

With the centralized listing of property management companies, the nature of property shares is gradually lost. Real estate stocks have changed from the darling of capital in the past to the object of serious examination. The market believes that the era of the general rise of the real estate sector may have become the past, and the situation of individual stocks has become the focus of attention.

Among the above-mentioned four real estate stocks that landed in the capital market on June 5438+ 10 and broke one after another, in addition to Shimao's management area of 65.438+billion square meters, the management areas of Shoufu, Youshangfu and Hejing Youhuo were 6.5438+050300 square meters, 25.8 million square meters and 22.2 million square meters respectively.

According to the data of the Central Reference Institute, in 2020, the average management area of the top 100 property service enterprises in China was 42.79 million square meters. The scale of the above three property management companies is obviously lower than this level.

Recently, Sunac Services and Jinke Services, which broke the "curse", are enterprises with management areas exceeding 100 million, backed by large real estate companies.

It is worth mentioning that Poly Property, the head property management company, has also seen a significant callback recently. According to data from Cai Dong Choice, Poly Real Estate closed at HK$ 52 today, down 40% from the high of over HK$ 90 in May this year. 165438+1In mid-October, Macquarie also rated Poly Real Estate as "underperforming the market" with a target price of HK$ 45.8.

A senior industry analyst told reporters that Poly Real Estate had high expectations at the beginning of listing due to its large area, but its profit was not high.

By the end of the first half of the year, Poly's property management area was 3,654,388+0.7 million square meters, ranking fourth in the industry; Asia Life and Country Garden, ranked second and third, have service areas of 353 million square meters and 320 million square meters respectively, and the management scales of the three companies are relatively close. In the same period, the gross profit margin of Poly Property was only 20.4%, which was far lower than that of Ya Life and Country Garden Services, which exceeded 36%.

There is still room in the future.

Although individual stocks are divided, from the perspective of the industry as a whole, the property management industry still has a broad market and prospects in the future.

Chen Xiao, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Center, told the reporter that overall, the property sector has great development potential, and it is in the early stage of the development of the property management industry, and there is still much room for development and entry. Its light asset model, stable cash flow and low debt ratio are more attractive to the capital market.

In the view of an investor who has been tracking real estate stocks for a long time, "as long as the houses of major shareholders continue to be sold, coupled with the increase in collection rate and rising prices, property companies will be able to live well in the next few years. This business is very stable. As long as the house is there, the money can be collected all the time and it is also anti-inflation. "

Now a large number of property management companies are listed, which is conducive to the improvement of subsequent market concentration. CITIC Securities believes that smaller and less characteristic property management companies will lose the motivation to expand their scale. New areas may lead to management risks; At the same time, the convenience of strategy, capital and talents brought by listing will further decompose the factors that hinder the growth of property management companies.

The above-mentioned investors also mentioned that the improvement of industry concentration in the future will benefit the head enterprises, and the more management areas, the lower the cost. At the same time, the incremental elimination of small housing enterprises will face the same situation. "Owners' committees will replace dissatisfied properties, and the middle class has higher requirements for services. This is expected to become the future trend. "

CITIC Securities also said that the value of outstanding enterprises in the future will be further highlighted. Due to the progress of science and technology, management innovation and the development of value-added services, the next three years may become the key three years to enhance concentration, and the brand moat will be wider.

However, some people in the industry are pessimistic about the development of the industry.

Some senior analysts bluntly told reporters that there is a bottleneck in the imagination of real estate. It believes that science and technology can reduce some costs, but to a limited extent; At the same time, the best properties are corporate customers such as industrial parks and office buildings, and it may be difficult for ordinary community owners to have imagination. "Now the money listed by enterprises will be collected for mergers and acquisitions, which may be a loss. After all, mergers and acquisitions are not cheap. "