Deep real estate background

165438+1On October 30th, the third round of land supply in Shanghai was officially opened, and five plots in Fengxian, Baoshan and Songjiang were the first to be listed for sale. Compared with the active participation of real estate enterprises in the first round, only two of the 24 plots in this round have more than 6 effective applicants, and the rest are listed.

The same low temperature appeared in Hefei the day before. Hefei, which was originally scheduled to sell 22 plots on165438+129 October, postponed the official auction of 14 plots to 65438+early February, and the remaining 8 plots were successfully sold. Some industry analysts have clearly pointed out that the land that has been postponed for sale is more likely to be backed by local platforms. In fact, this kind of plot has been staged in various cities.

No matter Wuxi, where the land auction was completed in early 165438+ 10, or Suzhou and Nanjing, which ended a few days ago, the land acquisition activities of large private housing enterprises have decreased, and urban construction enterprises with the background of local private enterprises, city investment and state-owned central enterprises have taken over the plots. Shenzhen Metro Group won five plots of land transferred from Shenzhen with a total reserve price of178.5 billion yuan.

However, different from the substantial increase in the threshold for participation in the second round of land auction, cities generally relaxed the requirements for land acquisition. For example, Suzhou and Jinan reduced the down payment ratio, Hangzhou restarted the appointment application system, and Guangzhou cancelled the second batch of housing price limit policies piloted in some areas. At present, these measures have not effectively boosted the market temperature.

According to the statistics of Han Yizhiku, a third-party organization, only 1 16 enterprises in TOP 100 have new plots. There are also many insiders of real estate enterprises who revealed to CBN that they have no intention to participate in the third round of soil auction. According to the data of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Securities Research Report, up to now, among the three land transactions, the proportion of land acquired by listed real estate enterprises has dropped to 12%.

The industry expects that the land market will remain low for some time without obvious improvement in the funds of housing enterprises.

Hot cities strive to release sincerity

Only two months after the end of the second land auction, the third round of centralized land supply was intensively put on shelves throughout the year.

On June 1 65438+1October1day, the first shot of the third round of soil auction was fired in Wuxi, and the amount of 20 plots was about 27.4 billion yuan. Only 3 plots received a small premium, and the rest 17 plots were sold at the reserve price, accounting for 85%. The overall premium rate is only 0.0 1%.

Looking back at the first and second land auctions in Wuxi, the proportion of land sold at a premium was 100% and 73%, respectively, and the overall premium rate was 12% and 4%, respectively, and the popularity gradually weakened.

Wuxi's performance also laid the overall cold tone of the third round of soil auctions in 22 cities across the country.

According to the data of Southwest Securities Research Report, among the 1 1 plots sold in Shenzhen, 7 were sold at reserve price and 4 at premium, and the overall premium rate dropped to 5% from 3 1% and 12% in the previous two rounds. Nanjing recovered the 15 plot before shooting, and 45 of the remaining 46 plots were sold, and the premium rate also dropped to 3%, and the auction rate increased from 23% in the second round to 26%. Of the 25 land transactions in Suzhou, only two were completed at a premium rate, and the overall premium rate dropped to 0.6%.

Hefei, which entered the third round of soil auction on1October 29th 165438+, was postponed to 65438+ on February 8th for 14 of the 22 plots originally scheduled for sale, and the way of sale was also changed from auction to listing, and the remaining 8 plots finally received 7.573 billion yuan.

"Hefei has launched the third batch of all the best plots on the 29 th, and the remaining plots to be launched later are more likely to be supported by local platforms." Analysis of middle finger hospital.

Although the industry has predicted that the centralized land supply in the third place will be precooled, the land auctions in several major cities still exceed expectations. After all, the last land auction this year is the last window period for housing enterprises to replenish goods for the coming year.

"The land market is basically a supply." Industry analysts who have been tracking real estate for a long time told reporters that the supply of land is usually rigid, which is determined by the local government's land supply plan and whether the land can be sorted out in that year. In most cases, supply is less than demand, or it is relatively balanced, especially in core cities. "In order to complete the land supply plan, there will be a wave of supply peak in the fourth quarter of each year, so the transaction at the end of the year will have a good performance."

At the same time, under the background of centralized land supply, the first round of soil auction nodes will not be too early in 2022, and the current land acquisition will supplement the supply in the next year, which is also the basis for many previous analyses that the third round of soil auction will pick up.

Earlier, a real estate company that participated in the local three-round auction in Nanjing told reporters, "The next auction may be in March-May next year, when the market will probably pick up, and there may not be such a good opportunity."

Unfortunately, facts are not always determined by rational judgment. According to the data of Han Yizhiku, in 20021and 10, 76 of the top 100 real estate enterprises had zero investment and no added value; 1 1 Up to now, the schedule of the third batch of centralized land supply is over half, and only 16 of the top 100 housing enterprises have new plots.

According to the data of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Securities, the number of land sold by large and medium-sized listed real estate enterprises in the three batches of land supply decreased significantly, except for the further reduction of premium rate. Among them, the amount of land acquired by listed real estate enterprises in the first round of land supply accounted for 93%, which was reduced to 56% in the second batch, and this figure has been reduced to 12% in the three batches of land transfer.

Obviously, the main reason for this wave of housing enterprises' low enthusiasm for land acquisition is not the high threshold. On the contrary, many cities have obviously lowered the threshold of land auction or produced high-quality plots to boost the land market.

Among them, Suzhou lowered the deposit ratio from 50% to 30%, Jinan also lowered the deposit ratio from 50% to 35%, Hangzhou restarted the reservation system with a ceiling of 50 million, Guangzhou cancelled the second batch of housing price limit policies piloted in some areas, and Nanjing cancelled the requirement that some plots should not cooperate.

However, these favorable measures can only be compromised in the face of financial pressure. Xie Haoyu, an analyst of Guotai Junan Real Estate, believes that after entering July, the demand side began to decline, and discounts and promotions began to appear after the National Day. Most of the sales of real estate enterprises grew negatively year-on-year, and then the supervision of pre-sale funds became stricter. At present, the financial pressure of real estate enterprises is greater than that during the second land auction.

"After only two months of sales, the third batch of earth auctions will face greater pressure than the second batch." The above analysis pointed out that.

The ability of "national team" is also limited.

Many housing enterprises told reporters that under the influence of uncertain policy prospects and tight funds, the primary task of housing enterprises is to ensure cash flow, and not taking land will become the "tacit understanding" of most housing enterprises.

An insider of the top 30 real estate enterprises told reporters that the company has not taken land recently and the investment extension department is "very idle". Another East China real estate enterprise also directly indicated that it would no longer participate in the third round of centralized land supply. When Shimao Group mentioned the land acquisition arrangement at the investor meeting a few days ago, it also made it clear that it should give priority to rigid payment, and then consider buying land after the subsequent financing will be significantly relaxed.

In order to make the best use of the funds in their hands, many housing enterprises have started the process of streamlining institutions and optimizing personnel, thus reducing expenses. "Our company is relatively safe at present, but it also guarantees the cash flow in hand to the greatest extent," said an insider of a real estate enterprise, "to cope with various situations that may arise in the future.

While private housing enterprises wait and see, it is a broader layout of state-owned housing enterprises. According to the statistics of Ping An Securities, during the period of 1- 10, the land sales area of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises accounted for 70.2% and 32.5% respectively, and the land sales amount accounted for 36.4% and 14.8% respectively. State-owned enterprises are obviously the main force of land acquisition.

It is particularly noteworthy that even within the "national team" camp, there have been some divisions in the third round of local auctions. Specifically, China Shipping, Poly and other national large-scale state-owned enterprise camps are not particularly active in land acquisition, while local city investment platforms in cities are more active in the third round of local auctions.

According to the statistics of Shanghai-Hong Kong Securities, taking the cities that have recently completed three batches of land supply as an example, among the 20 land transactions in Wuxi, the government platform took land 17 cases; Among the three batches of 3 1 land-related projects in Nanjing, 18 projects were delisted by government platform companies.

Even in the third round of local auction in Shenzhen, Shenzhen Railway Group monopolized five plots, and Shenye won two plots and a house property, which became the main force of local auction.

According to the research report of CITIC Securities, since September, local state-owned enterprises and large non-local state-owned enterprises have taken a higher proportion of land, especially the proportion of land taken by local state-owned enterprises has increased significantly. The amount of land acquired by large private developers has decreased significantly, and many cities simply do not see any large private developers.

The above-mentioned institutions believe that the enthusiasm of local state-owned enterprises for land acquisition is only phased, mainly supporting the land market. In the future, only a few national state-owned enterprises are expected to significantly increase their market share. Some analysts also said that many urban investment platforms will seek cooperation from private enterprises after acquiring land due to lack of development experience.

It is worth mentioning that the decline in the amount of land acquired by real estate enterprises this year may have an impact on the future supply of the property market. The above-mentioned insiders of private housing enterprises in East China expressed this concern. "The saleable value of the company's equity may be 30% next year."