After ten years, which assets will plummet and which will skyrocket?

What assets will plummet or soar in China in ten years?

With the devaluation of RMB, China's economy is declining, and its liquidity is tight. Which assets in China will plummet or skyrocket in ten years?

In the next decade, people will see the strongest world economy in history. Soft power and hard power drive the world economy respectively, which will present a bigger cake to every major economy.

At the beginning of this century, the world economy totaled $32 trillion; It was $62 trillion before the financial crisis; By the end of this year, it may reach 82 trillion.

Therefore, despite the financial crisis and the worst economic recession in Britain, America and even Europe in this century, the world economy is still developing, and its main driving force is the development of emerging markets including China.

However, with the devaluation of RMB, China's economy is declining and its liquidity is tight. Which assets in China will plummet or skyrocket in ten years?

Things that plummeted ten years later:

Assets ten years later

1, house

No matter how China's housing prices rise, there will always be some voices that the real estate bubble is about to burst and the real estate market is about to collapse. Ordinary property buyers are afraid of these voices and dare not start. After all, for most people, buying a house has consumed most of their savings.

In fact, if inflation is excluded, the cheapest thing in China in ten years may be a house.

It is relative to the per capita income to say that the house is cheap after ten years. For example, the per capita monthly income is now 3,000, and the average house price is 8,500 per square meter. Ten years later, when the per capita monthly income is 654.38+0.000 yuan, the average house price may be 654.38+0.2000 yuan per square meter. Relatively speaking, house prices are certainly much cheaper than now. Therefore, the house bought at a high price now will not maintain and increase in value after ten years.

Compared with the real estate prices at home and abroad, the real estate prices in China are at the peak. At the current real estate price, a family with an annual income of 80,000 can only afford a set of 100 square meter three-bedroom ordinary commercial housing without eating or drinking, which is very high.

If house prices continue to rise, all aspects of society can't bear it. Since they can't afford it, house prices have lost their motivation to rise. In other words, relative to the income of ordinary people, the current house price has indeed peaked.

China has implemented the "land finance" policy for more than ten years. With the end of the "land king" era, "land sales finance" has become increasingly unsustainable, and government departments have begun to change their thinking and will gradually change from "land finance" to "property rights finance".

In other words, the way of levying' property tax' on house owners will gain new and sustained fiscal revenue, which will undoubtedly increase the holding cost of house owners and reduce the attractiveness of houses as family wealth.

In those areas with developed national economy, it is one of the main factors to continuously attract the inflow of foreign population and promote the continuous rise of housing prices. However, with the increase of regional economic development and the transfer of industrial capital to underdeveloped areas, the total population of economically developed areas will rise and fall after ten years, and the "labor shortage" starting from 20 10 is already a sign. It is predicted that after ten years, the floating population in economically developed areas will be negative, and negative population will inevitably lead to housing.

China's family planning policy, which has been implemented for more than 30 years, is the most powerful killer to end the rising house prices, and the most fundamental driving force to support the rising house prices is "steel demand". However, due to the national family planning policy, the number of "newcomers" is decreasing year by year.

In fact, China society has now entered an "aging" country. In ten years, China society will become more aging, young people will become a "scarce" generation, and the demand for housing will be greatly reduced.

At present, the backbone of society is the generation after 60 s and 70 s, and their consumption power and purchasing power are undoubtedly the strongest in the whole society. These people are the basic people who buy villas and luxury cars in the market. Many of these people now own more than one set of high-grade commercial housing, and their descendants are only "the only generation (the only child generation)".

Ten years later, the "unique generation" has grown up, and the houses inherited by these "unique generations" from their parents and grandparents will reach the level of "three suites per capita". How does the "unique generation" consume these houses? Can I only rent or sell? However, it is undoubtedly impossible to expect peers who are both "unique generations" to "take over" each other!

10 years later, the proportion of the elderly population in China will reach 25%, and there may be a large number of elderly people living in nursing homes (the "only generation" is one to four generations, so they cannot take care of them). After the elderly live in nursing homes, there will be a large number of vacant houses. Perhaps many old villages today will become "ghost villages" after ten years of lack of popularity.

In view of the above reasons, housing will not become a means to preserve and increase wealth. People who have been house slaves for decades will wait for the housing to depreciate.

2. Cash

The devaluation of paper money is inevitable. For example, Song Hongbing, a financial writer, said that in the mid-1980s, an insurance company sold insurance to one of his friends, saying that after his friend retired on 20 15, 50 yuan would get RMB insurance every month. At that time, 50 yuan RMB was equivalent to a family's living expenses for one month, which was still very valuable.

But what is 50 yuan now? Now in Beijing, this 50 yuan is not enough for the insurance company to get the insurance premium.

If you have100000 RMB now, do you think you can retire? If you put this 100,000 in the bank, 10 may only be equivalent to 2 million now, 10 may only be worth 400,000, and10 may only be tens of thousands, which shows how fast the paper currency depreciates.

20 14 years is 100 RMB, and the purchasing power is a fraction of that of 2004. When you go to McDonald's, there may be little difference in what you buy, but there is a big difference in buying a house, hiring a nanny, seeing a doctor and giving a training class to your child. In 2004, the monthly salary of nannies in Shenzhen was 1000 yuan, and now it is 3,500 to 4,000 yuan; In a well-located community, the new house is 6000 yuan per square meter, and now it is at least 35000 yuan.

At present, the growth rate of M2 is 13%, and the annual increase of social wealth according to official data is 7%(GDP). After deducting local false reports, it may be only about 6%, 13%-6% = 7%, which is probably the real inflation rate in China. 100 yuan, continuously multiplied by 10 93%, is the purchasing power after 10 years. Have you worked it out? It is equivalent to 48.4 yuan today.

The premise of this calculation is that there will be no economic crisis. We know that after the global financial turmoil in 2008, China implemented a loose monetary policy. In 2009, the growth rate of M2 was 27.7% (GDP increased by 8.7% that year), which means that the actual inflation rate this year is about 19%, and the purchasing power of cash is 20% in theory.

This year, Song Weiping, a gambler of Greentown Real Estate, made a fortune from the brink of collapse and became a super rich man. Our money, in this way, gathered in the hands of wealthy businessmen.

Therefore, it is very dangerous to hold a lot of cash. Even if you save Yu 'ebao and do bank wealth management products, the annual income is less than 7%. Compared with the real inflation rate of around 7%, your wealth has depreciated. A lot of money can be used as a trust to realize annual income of 10%, but what if the borrowing enterprise goes bankrupt? This kind of risk is obviously very high.

Billionaires may be on welfare after 30 years if they don't invest. In fact, not only RMB and USD, but also paper money has been depreciating.

3. Ali's stock

10 years later, is Ali's share price 3 dollars or 4 dollars? Although it seems today, it is still hovering above $80, which is unattainable. Think about its major shareholder Yahoo. Ali's future is also full of variables.

Science and technology enterprises have always been "rich but not three generations". Microsoft, which rose in the personal PC era, can still support it in the Internet era, but in the mobile Internet era, Bill Gates was ruthlessly swept out of the house. But this still can't save Microsoft, and the decline will continue.

Tencent, which rose in the Internet era, was lucky to seize WeChat when it entered the mobile Internet era. In the coming 10 year, great changes will take place in the field of science and technology, and China Internet giants such as Ali will enter the "third technology era" they are facing. Can they meet this challenge?

There is no doubt that there will be stragglers, and the shares of such enterprises will end in a sharp drop. Do you know why Buffett doesn't like investing in technology companies? He is a long-term investor and needs stable expectations. Li Ka-shing occasionally plays with the concept of science and technology, just to cater to his "confidante" Zhou Kaixuan.

14 years ago, Alibaba was just an e-commerce company founded by 18 people. Now it has grown into an "industrial ecosystem" spanning e-commerce, finance, wireless communication and other formats. It owns more than 10 subsidiaries, and its most important resource-"Ali people" (employees) has expanded to more than 26,000 people.

Sensitive response and super execution are generally easier to achieve in small enterprises, but Alibaba has more than 20,000 employees, and its scale is still expanding. Alibaba hopes that its growing body will continue to be as agile as it was when it set up the 18 team and be able to innovate in various fields. But everyone knows that it is very difficult to make elephants dance.

Alibaba is the crystallization of China's business thinking, while Amazon has natural globalization genes. Ali will inevitably compete with Amazon in the future, which will continue to test whether Alibaba, a China Internet company, can stand the test of the global market.

In the past two decades, Amazon has not only built itself into an online retailer with the largest variety of goods and the second largest internet company in the world, but also established a complete logistics system, which is of great benefit to Amazon's sustainable development in retail. At the same time, Amazon started with basic technology and hardware, and both AWS and Kindle proved to be industry disruptors, showing the vision of its founder Bezos.

After Alibaba.com's delisting, Alibaba further introduced the "national team" with the opportunity of repurchasing Yahoo's equity. The institutions participating in the subscription of common shares include China Investment Corporation, Apollo Capital and CITIC Capital, two leading private equity investment companies in China, and CDB Finance Co., Ltd., which is responsible for equity investment of China Development Bank. For Ma Yun, holding the most important state-owned enterprises in China, such as CIC and CDB, with his left hand, he will get rid of that disturbing day in one fell swoop. 20 10, ma yun also declared in a high-profile way that "AliPay is always dedicated to the country as long as the country needs it".

For Alibaba, the injection of the national name capital not only solves its capital problem, but also endorses its future development. But the looming possibility of nationalization behind it is not good for everyone outside the platform.

Alibaba's multi-platform flowering, huge channel advantages and high profit rate are indeed the advantages of attracting state-level investment. On the other hand, Ali, as a subversive and showman, has been constantly moving in the financial field in recent years, which has affected the interests of UnionPay, which is also a "national team". The friction between the two sides has been constant and escalated many times. How to deal with the relationship with these members of the national team with policy and volume advantages is also what Ali must consider at present.

At present, Ali still enjoys a series of policy dividends in the fields of self-employment, e-commerce taxation and cross-border e-commerce. At the same time, he can use his current position in the field of e-commerce to negotiate with the government in various places and fields. For example, Ali's recently launched "Cultivated Land Treasure" product has turned the traditional government-led land transfer process into an Internet product.

But how long can the policy dividend last? For a giant platform like Alibaba, its own hematopoietic profit model has matured, and it is necessary to deal with not only the capital investment after the cancellation of preferential policies, but also the preparation for feeding back the localities.