Macroeconomic Analysis of China in 2022

Macroeconomic analysis of China in 2022;

Since the third quarter of 2022, despite the unfavorable factors such as frequent epidemics, high-temperature power cut-off policy and continuous contraction of overseas demand, the domestic economic stabilization policy has continued to exert its strength, helping the economic fundamentals to continue to repair, and the economic growth rate has steadily rebounded in the third quarter. It is worth noting that the current economic recovery is still unbalanced and the epidemic disturbance may continue.

The international and domestic economic environment is still facing severe challenges. In order to accelerate economic recovery, measures to stabilize the economy in the future still need to help the economy continue to rise in the fourth quarter. From the supply side, with the extreme high temperature weather fading, the impact of epidemic situation or high temperature power cut-off in some areas on industrial production weakened, and the demand in some industries picked up, overlapping the impact of low base in the same period.

The national industrial production above designated size accelerated. In addition, under the background of policy-led investment in infrastructure, the implementation of policies such as developing financial instruments promoted the marginal improvement of the economy in September, and the base of some industries was low in the same period last year, boosting the growth rate of industrial production. In September 2022, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year on year. From the ring comparison, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.84% compared with last month.

From the demand side, under the background of intensive measures to promote automobile consumption in various places, the growth rate of automobile consumption remained high in September, which supported consumption growth. However, the decline of base utility and repeated epidemics led to the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September being less than market expectations. In September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 2.5% year-on-year, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous period.

The accelerated growth of manufacturing investment and the sustained development of infrastructure investment are the main reasons for the steady and good investment, while the further weakening of real estate development investment has slowed down the investment growth to some extent. In September, investment in fixed assets increased by 5.9% year-on-year, which was 0. 1 percentage point higher than that of the previous period. Among them, investment in manufacturing increased by 10. 1% and investment in infrastructure increased by 7. 1%.

The overall overseas demand is gradually tightening, the domestic epidemic is spreading, and extreme weather effects are superimposed, which makes the export base at a high level in the same period last year, which makes the export growth rate in this period continue to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous period. Concerns about the global economic recession have increased, while global inflation remains high.

Developed countries in Europe and the United States accelerated interest rate hikes and contraction, and global commodity market prices fell sharply, which greatly weakened the support of price factors for import growth, increasing by 0.3% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous period.