Shenzhen 7 15 New Deal Follow-up: Market Frustration, Anti-fever and Pro-deep Region

One week after the New Deal in July 15, the housing market in Shenzhen experienced different degrees of cooling. At the same time, apartments and office buildings met the investment demand of the market, especially office buildings, with a turnover of 443.2%. However, the Shenzhen market was frustrated, which stimulated the heat in Linshen area. Unexpectedly, on July 25, Dongguan also introduced a regulation policy, once again putting down the signs of "hot property market".

Affected by the New Deal, the housing market in Shenzhen has declined.

After the July 15 policy in Shenzhen, the market has made corresponding adjustments, and the second-hand housing market has shown a slight cooling characteristic.

According to the data of Midland Property National Research Center, last week (7. 13-7. 19), no residential projects entered the market in Shenzhen, and 873 sets of first-hand residential nets were signed, down 8.0% from the previous month, among which there was no transaction in Luohu District.

The new deal has made some people lose the qualification to buy a house, and it has also brought uncertainty to the supply side. According to Central Plains data, in the first week after the New Deal, the sincere customers looking for houses in Central Plains decreased by 15%.

"Because of the New Deal, China Resources City is still afraid to open, and it may have to wait until August, but the specific situation is still uncertain." Ms. Zhang, a real estate agent, told the reporter of China Times.

In terms of second-hand housing, after the New Deal, the online signing volume, intermediary transaction volume and intermediary belt volume were all halved. According to the data of Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, during the period from 16 to 22, the average daily turnover of second-hand houses in Shenzhen was 222, which was significantly lower than the average of 450 in June. Before and after the policy (each week), the turnover of institutions decreased by 6 1%. The average daily turnover of several leading institutions decreased from 463 sets before the policy to 180 sets after the policy; 7. 15 Before and after the implementation of the New Deal (one week each), the number of visits by real estate agents decreased by about 50% on average.

Different from the transaction volume, the price of second-hand houses still rose slightly. According to Zhuge's housing search data, the listing price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen in 29 weeks (7. 13-7. 19) was 70,373 yuan/m2, up 0.05% from the previous month, and the price increase was 0.29 percentage points lower than that in 28 weeks. Judging from the proportion of owners' price-increasing houses, the proportion of owners' price-increasing houses in Shenzhen has been rising continuously since the 25th week, with a large increase (more than 2.5 percentage points). After the release of the New Deal in the 29th week, the proportion of owners' price-increasing houses was 67.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from last week, and the growth rate narrowed by 5.4 percentage points.

"I am looking for a second-hand house. Now the only owner (there is only one house in Shenzhen, and the property right of this house has been more than five years) is very hard, and the house is still rising100000." Buyer Dai (pseudonym) told the reporter of China Times. Mr. Zhang, a property buyer, told the reporter of China Times: "The policy has only been out for more than a week, and I think it is estimated that the effect will be seen in March-June. The results of the senior high school entrance examination will be released in the middle of next month, and the degree room will increase slightly. "

Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association also said that the impact of the July 15 New Deal is expected to be fully revealed after the National Day this year.

Under the balance, purchasing power is diverted to other fields.

"Housing adjustment and purchase restriction conditions will divert residential purchasing power to other real estate types, and there is a high probability that it will flow to apartment products and commercial properties because it is not limited to purchase." Zheng Shulun, managing director of Shenzhen Zhongyuan, said.

"There are still many people looking at the house on weekends. What should be bought is still bought. If there are no places, I will buy an apartment. " Ms. Yu, the intermediary, told the reporter of China Times. "Now the apartment market is very hot. Transitional customers, investment customers and owner-occupied customers all have needs. Shenzhen is sparsely populated and the value of apartments is considerable. "

Contrary to the cooling of the residential market, the turnover of office buildings in this city has risen sharply. According to the data of Midland Property National Research Center, last week, there were 164 sets of first-hand office buildings in the city, up 443.2% from the previous month. Among them, the turnover in Baoan District increased by 19.4 times, and that in Longgang increased by 5.4 times. Judging from the ranking distribution of transaction volume, Baoan takes the lead with a transaction volume of 22,509.02 ㎡.

The skyrocketing office buildings reflect the investment demand of the housing market before the New Deal. Wang Xiaoyu, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, believes that Shenzhen's 7 15 New Deal is more severe, which has curbed the release of speculative market demand, cracked down on real estate speculation and brought some cooling to the overheated second-hand housing market.

Dongguan New Deal followed.

After the New Deal of July 15 in Shenzhen, the demand spillover situation intensified, which set off another wave of property buyers' rush to grab houses in Linshen area (Dongguan Hui). According to Fang Xin's data. Com, the residential transaction volume in Dongguan last week was 1.343 sets, which exceeded 1.300 sets for four consecutive weeks. Among them, the transaction volume in the southeast of Linshen increased the most, reaching 59%.

Then, on July 25th, many departments in Dongguan jointly issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of Real Estate in our city, which made relevant provisions in nine aspects, including housing supply, commercial housing purchase restriction, transfer term, provident fund loan, price supervision, financial order, transaction order, information disclosure and public opinion guidance.

In terms of the restriction on the purchase of commercial housing, the document stipulates that families who are not registered in this city must pay social insurance 1 year or more every month in this city within two years before the date of purchase; To buy a second set of commercial housing, you must pay social insurance for more than 2 years every month in this city within the first 3 years from the date of purchase. Non-registered households in this Municipality have two or more sets of commercial housing within the administrative area of this Municipality, and sales are suspended.

In terms of second-hand housing transfer, the document will increase the transfer period from 2 years to 3 years.

For employees who have paid the housing provident fund in different places, the document points out that if employees want to apply for housing provident fund loans in Dongguan, they or their spouses must be registered in this city.

There are some positive voices about Dongguan's New Deal. "It should have been done long ago. The house price in Dongguan is not so high because a group of Shenzhen real estate speculators have speculated. " Mr. Jin, the buyer, commented: "The purpose of this policy is still aimed at real estate speculators, especially second-hand houses. It has little impact on users who just need it, and the social security period is easy to achieve. "

At the same time, it was also pointed out that Wan Hu was not mentioned in the document. "There is no case of buying a house in Wanji, so you can buy a house as long as you enter Wan Hu? It is estimated that a large number of people will enter Dongguan. " Mr. Zhang told the reporter of China Times.