Many houses that have been bitten to death and cannot be sold have been sold one after another.

Strange to say, our team has been out frequently recently, and in the process we have a more and more firm feeling.

Many items that we thought were not for sale suddenly began to be sold.

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Let's look at concrete.

Jinqiao Ruishi Garden, the benchmark project of Jinyang plate in Pudong, was released 12 years later, and the source of the suite was publicly auctioned on 106.

Xujiahui, the inner ring where the supply of new houses is almost cut off, is an old-fashioned project called Yongxincheng. I took the land for a long time until 2004, when I suddenly released the source of 1 14 suite.

Wang, the last building of City Star, said that the price was not suitable and he kept it. I didn't expect to sell it recently.

That's not all. If you only count Inner Central, there are aristocratic fields, Zun International, and Central Mansions. ...

Did you find out? These "old site new projects" or "old site new projects" have relatively unified characteristics:

The location is excellent, there is no new site for many years, the building is reserved for holding or renting, and the ground cover is forgotten by the Shanghai new house market.

Just when everyone thought they could only "second-hand look", they suddenly turned their heads and sprung up, tearing a hole in the new housing market in Shanghai and stirring up the original rules of the game.

Why is this happening?

In fact, many people don't know that the Shanghai property market has been so long, and not all developers have turned around quickly. For various reasons, some enterprises in some projects may hold some houses for sale.

The developer holds it in his hand and does nothing but take it.

Why, it's actually very simple, because in a high probability, even if many houses can't be sold at first, as long as the cash flow is not tight, there will be no problem in holding them.

The reason is even simpler, because regardless of regulation or not, real house prices have risen for more than ten years.

You will clearly find that the price of new houses in Shanghai has been rising steadily in recent years. Of course, it has also been suppressed and regulated in this process, but even when the market is not good, the holders are like a mirror.

It is true that real estate depends on the weather for food.

02

The same problem exists here. Since we have been waiting for so long, why can't we lose our temper now, compete with the new offer and concentrate on entering the market?

I think the main reason is that 2020 is really a very special time.

Before 2020, there are three special years: 20 17, 20 18 and 20 19.

The average price in Shanghai is one thing, but for specific projects, because of the price limit, basically the unit price of each plate will not increase.

Moreover, this price is a high-rise project in many cases. The so-called guaranteed price has no effect at all in the Shanghai property market. How much is the pre-sale certificate?

Therefore, the Shanghai property market has really given developers all kinds of pains in the past three years. The most painful thing is that the project does not make money, or it does not make much money.

But in 2020, suddenly there was a little hope.

Because of this year's pre-sale certificate, we saw a breakthrough.

/kloc-The opening price of Jing 'anfu West District, which was first opened in 0/6, was 8.6w, 18 and 8.7w again in 0/9. By 2020, the century of Beijing, An Ying and Jing 'an will exceed 9w, which is the hope.

There is also a very popular foreshore, Sanxiang Impression Mansion. Last year, the approval price was10.9w, while the previous Oriental Huili with the highest unit price was only 9.2ww. The approval price given these two days was 12. 18w.

In any case, after three years of sideways housing price system, many projects have started to improve their profit margins this year.

So now many real estate enterprises will have os with some projects in their hands: Do you want to take advantage of this wave of market to sell? I really can't guess what the market outlook will be like.

Of course, the volume of transactions is also very interesting, and the market is picking up, but it is not the kind of bursting.

Due to special circumstances, this year's 65438+ from 10 to April was slightly lower than last year, but by May, the transaction volume of new houses reached an astonishing 9 150, which was the highest in Shanghai in recent four years.

Data: Kerry

Shanghai hasn't seen a new house selling 9000+ a month for a long time, but it's nothing compared with the year of 20 16.

So similarly, enterprises will also think when facing their own property: Do you want to take advantage of this wave of market and sell it?

Finally, competition is so subtle.

There will be nearly 200 new discs with pre-sale certificates this year. If you don't sell, others will sell.

03

Since the phenomenon exists, what are the appearances of these projects?

It won't break.

If you think about it carefully, you will understand that if you are a businessman, will you choose a poor product or a good product and wait for the price to rise?

Poor items will only be sold out quickly, and no one will choose to stock up or hold them.

We went to see these returned old projects specially, and deeply felt that only the ingenuity of that year would make such products.

Not only is the lot scarce, but the surrounding new houses are newly cut and the product strength is surprisingly strong.

Give two examples of projects.

Jinqiao Ruishi Garden, many people will think that it is an old project 12 years ago, whether it is product, apartment type, internal supporting and maintenance.

Are they all out of date now?

I have the same idea, but after stepping on this project on the spot, I found that I may have misunderstood the definition of having the ability to become a plate benchmark.

In addition to the slightly outdated apartment type, the product strength, internal supporting maintenance, greening rate and other conditions of the project, from my personal point of view, it is not too much to say that the new house is now crushed.

Just give you three points:

1, and the greening rate is 60%

2. The building spacing is near 100m.

3. Eternal facade and spacious balcony.

The plot ratio of 1.45 is only low density in foreign houses, but it will actually appear in high-rise projects with 2 1 floor.

Let's look at the perspective of an overhead view.

Look at another real picture of the ground I took.

There are such landscape gardens everywhere in the community, lush and lush. What is a house planted in a garden? this is

The facade of more than ten years, after the precipitation of time, is still timeless.

It's hard to believe that such a spacious balcony will appear on an 84-flat apartment in Shanghai.

Let's take a look at Xujiahui's old star plate, Yongxincheng.

Three stairs and four households, the 6-meter-high foyer and facade are brand-new, just like new ones.

Shanghai's new houses have a rare occupancy rate of 80%, and the internal space scale is also wide enough.

And this corner balcony, you can see all the bustling night scenes of Xujiahui.

After reading these two projects, to be honest, I was shocked.

The same is true of other established projects that have already entered the market. In addition to the damaged year, the product strength is not inferior to the current new house.

So for these projects, location and product strength are definitely no problem. The only problem may be that the apartment will be older. We all know that 90 square meters was used for two bedrooms and one bathroom before 20 10, which is very different from the current product planning concept.

Of course, it is also because of time that many excellent designs can be made. The current building code may not allow you to make such a corner balcony, which was the only possibility in the previous building code.

So each has its own advantages and disadvantages, and everyone can judge for themselves.

In addition, the overall decoration, no matter how high it was at the beginning, has now depreciated badly.

In addition, everyone needs to pay attention to the property. After all, after such a long time, good real estate will make the house depreciate more and more slowly.

Finally, it depends on the price. The price is right and the area needs to match. This kind of house can't be bad.

04

Well, finally, why is this happening in Shanghai?

This just shows the success of Shanghai's overall property market regulation. In fact, whether it is Shenzhen as a first-tier city or Hangzhou and Nanjing in the Yangtze River Delta, the property market is far hotter than Shanghai.

Two days ago, I went to Jinji Lake in Suzhou, where ordinary apartments are always as high as 100 thousand. A friend told me to sell an apartment in Jinji Lake to Cuihu Tiandi at a low price. I don't know what it feels like after listening to it.

In contrast, the Shanghai property market, in fact, regardless of various objective factors, the overall house price is still low.

The key is that users' expectations of the market are relatively calm, and buyers really feel that the property market will not fluctuate particularly, which is very rare.

Property market management is nothing more than expected management. Many developers who own properties are now selling, indicating that their expectations for the future are relatively dull.

There are 10,000 ways to prop up the property market and 10,000 ways to suppress the property market, but it is really difficult to make the property market feel stable and flat.

Looking at today, only Shanghai has done it.

This is why many people will say that Shanghai's housing prices are undervalued. Of course, it doesn't matter whether Shanghai is undervalued or has a bubble. The important thing is whether people living in this city can buy their favorite house.

Finally, as usual, I still give some advice.

1, sideways for 3 years, the trend of volume and price is improving this year. If you are the first in Shanghai, do not hesitate. The first set of Shanghai is friendly and relaxed, and it is still the best time.

2, the replacement should also speed up the pace, and the quiet market is the best time to change houses.

Recently, the boss is speeding up the pace of changing rooms. For ordinary individuals, I would like to believe this veteran's knowledge of the market.

In Shanghai this year, you can choose popular lottery events, but don't stick to your own opinions. The supply of new houses is quite large this year, and there are many good projects in the next New Year. For buyers, they can choose and choose within the budget.

These frequent point-like changes and trends, connected in series into the fundamentals of the Shanghai property market, slowly unfolded in front of me. It is expected that with good management, the product strength will begin to improve, and the model of more yuan will begin to appear slowly.

If you are looking for a house recently or are planning to buy a house in the near future, you'd better talk to a knowledgeable friend. Lu Jun's friends are real estate developers and property consultants with over 10 years' experience. Click the end of the article to read the original consultation question, and we will provide you with one-on-one service, limited to 30 per day!