World union real estate: why give it a dynamic 25 times-reiterate, the next "blue label model"!

At present, the company's fundamentals are good and it continues to maintain optimistic judgment. The company has completed the national layout, and its main offices cover 4 municipalities directly under the central government and 32 major central cities. At present, the company is in the core period from the capital expenditure stage to the interest rate embodiment stage. At the same time, we are optimistic about the supporting role of the company's three major innovations in the company's future advantages: 1) big data platform. "O2O(Online To Offline)" mode based on customer information; 2) Standardized production. Effectively bind large customers and ensure consistent service quality; 3) Derivative business. Asset management and microfinance. The company is not a real estate developer focusing on asset turnover, but an integrated service provider based on human resource management, experience export and undertaking business outsourcing. At present, the company has abundant cash, and the completion of the national layout has brought the stability of the company's fixed costs. Mainly explain why we think the company can copy the "blue label model" and realize the integration of the industrial chain and the expansion of new business through mergers and acquisitions of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 20 13 and 20 14 will be 0.83 yuan and 0.99 yuan respectively. As of September 6th, the company's share price was 14.84 yuan, which was 17.88 and 14.99 times that of PE of 20 13 and 20 14. At present, the company is the comprehensive service provider with the lowest valuation, giving the price-earnings ratio of 2065438+25 times in 2003, corresponding to the stock price of 20.75 yuan, and maintaining the "buy" rating.

Main contents: 1. Complete the nationwide layout-from the capital expenditure stage to the profit recovery stage: at present, the company has built four strategic regions, namely North China, Shandong, Southwest China and East China, covering all regions of the country except Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia. At present, the company's main offices cover four municipalities directly under the central government and 32 major central cities.

From the perspective of the company's development, we believe that the company's national layout has been successfully completed. The sustained growth of costs and expenditures brought by the early expansion period will gradually enter a stable period. The company has entered the profit embodiment stage from the capital expenditure stage. In the future, through premium competition and mergers and acquisitions, if the business volume of the company continues to expand, it is expected to enter an oligopoly period.

In addition, from the empirical data, the branches of intermediary branches can have stable profitability and enter economies of scale as long as they keep the annual agency fee income above 50 million.

The company has been expanding since 20 10. 20 1 1 year, there are only 10 branches with a profit of more than 50 million. At present, 20 13 has more than 50 million profitable branches for 13. Considering the annual data, we think that the characteristics of the company's "profit embodiment period" are beginning to appear.

According to the current development trend, we expect the company to achieve 300 billion agency sales revenue in 20 13, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48% and a market share of 4.05%. It is estimated that the agency income will reach 405 billion in 20 14 years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35% and a market share of 4.97% (it is estimated that the national commercial housing sales amount will be 20 15 trillion years).

3. Three innovative service models support the company's growth: 1) Big data platform: the starting point of "O2O (online to offline)" model based on customer information.

At present, the domestic real estate information system providers are mainly SouFun and Easy Home Kerri. The above two systems mainly collect developer information and macro data of real estate, and attract buyers to buy houses by displaying the above data on their own network platform. In the above ways, developers are passively waiting for buyers to buy a house. In the past, when the competitive sales market was not fierce, it was hard for buyers to find a room, and the policy changed little, this traditional online to offline can really attract customers effectively. However, at present, the market is gradually entering a period of information explosion, dissimilation of consumption differences in different regions and intensified market competition. The above passive methods are not conducive to developers to actively understand customer information and formulate strategies.

Different from the traditional e-commerce field, the customer information management system (CIM) jointly developed by World Union and IMB is mainly based on strategic consulting and brokerage business. The biggest difference between the system and the first two systems is that the data comes from the buyer, and the World Union strategic consulting and sales platform is introduced to analyze the data and then convert it to the developer. The core of this innovative online to offline is still to promote offline transactions through data platform analysis; But the core benefit is that developers can actively adjust their design and sales strategies according to the situation of regional customers. In the increasingly fierce market competition in the future, Shilian Customer Big Data Platform will help the company to have stronger strategic consulting and sales promotion capabilities.

According to the company's annual consignment of 300 billion yuan, assuming that the average sales price of each suite is 2 million yuan, the company can collect 1 50000 sets of actual transaction data in1year. Considering unsuccessful visits (assuming that there are 10 for every 1 0 visiting customers), second-hand houses, leased customers, etc. We expect that the company's system can collect nearly 6.5438+0.5 million groups of buyer information a year. Considering the current national layout of World Union Real Estate, the data platform will become a sharp weapon for the company's development in three to five years.

At present, the company has fully introduced the new Barker "apron system" and achieved good results. Every employee (below the middle level, including the case manager) will receive a pocket manual before joining the job, which contains all the systems, processes and operation methods related to his own business, and everything is completely standardized. Employees will not feel confused after joining the company, and all possible problems can be found in the search manual.

The above manual is closely integrated with the cultural and enterprise system framework of the World Federation. Employees can take the manual with them when they change jobs, but the operating procedures and entrepreneurial spirit in the manual cannot take root in enterprises outside the World Federation. At present, more and more enterprises, such as Vanke, Evergrande and China Merchants, are striving to build standardized production processes. The standardization adopted by the World Federation can effectively connect developers and enjoy the same quality of quality services in any city. Standardization has become an important advantage for companies to bind customers.

3) Derivative business has begun to take shape: asset management and small loan business.

The company's asset management business is mainly located in high-end businesses and high-end residences, including property management, office leasing and administrative outsourcing. The company has acquired Anxinxing and Qingdao Yayuan and other property companies. At present, there are about 40 billion residential markets and 80 billion non-residential markets in domestic property management. In the future, the scale of property management will be around 654.38+050 billion.

From the net interest rate, the interest rate of residential property management is 3-5%, the comprehensive business is 5-7%, and the office building is 8- 10%.

Judging from the composition of CBRE's business income in China, property management income accounts for 20%, overlapping leasing, evaluation, administrative outsourcing and financial business (bulk transactions) account for 80%.

But the above three items are completely derived from the huge scale of property management. The company hopes to seize the high-end property market by entering the high-end property management business.

The company's small loans mainly support the agency business of World Union Real Estate. At present, the main business scope of microfinance focuses on supporting people with insufficient down payment to buy a house. Because the relevant credit information work of buyers can rely on the banking system, the company's small loan risk is small and the profit return is high.

4. In the future, the "blue label model" will be copied: the company is not a real estate developer with heavy asset turnover, but an integrated service provider based on human resource management, experience export and business outsourcing. At present, the company has abundant cash, and the completion of the national layout has brought the stability of the company's fixed costs. We believe that the future development of the company will copy the "blue standard model" of the capital market, and realize the integration of the industrial chain and the expansion of new business through mergers and acquisitions in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

At present, there are three main types of corporate mergers and acquisitions, namely, industry mergers and acquisitions, resource mergers and acquisitions and capacity mergers and acquisitions. Industry mergers and acquisitions are mainly based on the upstream and downstream expansion of the industrial chain, pursuing synergy; Resource-based mergers and acquisitions are mainly to gain the strategic advantages of the other party in the region, mostly to acquire competitors and realize regional monopoly; The competency-based model is mainly integration and inconsistency, and business expansion is realized through independent operation of different brands.

2) World Union Real Estate has the quality of "blue standard mode". At present, through the merger and acquisition of World Union Credit, Shengze Guarantee, Anxinxing and Yayuan, World Union has realized the upstream and downstream expansion of microfinance, guarantee and property industry. According to the development law of global intermediary banks, the company's future expansion direction should also include evaluation banks, design institutes and commercial operation teams.

In terms of resource acquisition, the company previously acquired Jinan Xinli Gao Yi and Wuhan Jing Tian Di Wei, and expanded to Shandong and Wuhan. We believe that the steady development of the company's traditional brokerage business will provide support for the future mergers and acquisitions of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the integration of the industrial chain and the expansion of new business.

5. Optimistic, reaffirming the "syllogism" of intermediary bank valuation: We officially upgraded the company rating to "Buy" in the report "Optimistic, the company enters the second stage of syllogism of intermediary bank valuation" on August 25th, 20 13. At present, the company's fundamentals are good and it continues to maintain optimistic judgment. The World Union Real Estate Report put forward the syllogism view of intermediary bank valuation for the first time; It is believed that the improvement of the company's future valuation comes from the following three points: 1) the unexpected growth of agency business (corresponding to the dynamic10/5 times valuation, similar to the growth of real estate stocks), 2) the improvement of gross profit margin, the stability of the settlement cycle of agents, the average rate of agency fees, and the beginning of mergers and acquisitions of upstream and downstream companies in the industry (corresponding to the dynamic/kloc)

6. Investment suggestion: maintain the "buy" rating. On August 25th, 20 13, we officially upgraded the company's rating to "buy" in the report "Optimistic, the company enters the second stage of the valuation syllogism of intermediary banks". At present, the company's fundamentals are good and it continues to maintain optimistic judgment. The company has completed the national layout, and its main offices cover 4 municipalities directly under the central government and 32 major central cities. At present, the company is in the core period from the capital expenditure stage to the interest rate embodiment stage. At the same time, we are optimistic about the supporting role of the company's three major innovations in the company's future advantages: 1) big data platform. "O2O(Online To Offline)" mode based on customer information; 2) Standardized production. Effectively bind large customers and ensure consistent service quality; 3) Derivative business. Asset management and microfinance. The company is not a real estate developer focusing on asset turnover, but an integrated service provider based on human resource management, experience export and outsourcing. At present, the company has abundant cash, and the completion of the national layout has brought the stability of the company's fixed costs. Mainly explain why we think the company can copy the "blue label model" and realize the integration of the industrial chain and the expansion of new business through mergers and acquisitions of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. It is estimated that the performance will increase by 80%-13 years10-September. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 20 13 and 20 14 will be 0.83 yuan and 0.99 yuan respectively. As of September 6th, the company's share price was 14.84 yuan, which was 17.88 and 14.99 times that of PE of 20 13 and 20 14. Give the company a price-earnings ratio of 2065438+25 times in 2003, corresponding to the stock price of 20.75 yuan, and maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk warning: the industry faces two major risks: interest rate hike and policy regulation.