Will the financial crisis really make many people unemployed?

Banks all over the world want gold. Is it possible to make gold coins as a global unified trading tool in the future?

Please look at the following article. If we draw inferences from others and make continuous efforts, I think a global unified single currency system may eventually emerge in Asia, Africa, Europe and America, but it is a long historical process.

The Historical Changes of Global Monetary System and the Prospects of Regional Monetary Integration in Asia

The century-long history of the change of the international monetary system is also the history of human beings choosing the credit order expressed in money. After various forms of gold standard, Bretton Woods system and Jamaica system, the international monetary system developed to the middle and late 1980s. Under the background of global financial integration, there is a trend of regional exchange rate coordination and currency regionalization. The successful introduction of the euro in the European Union, the monetary cooperation between North America and North America and the dollarization of Latin American countries are all concrete manifestations of this trend. In 2030, the world will form two major currency areas-the European currency area and the American currency area. Asia is an important pole of the world economy (Note: Asia here includes China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province of China, China, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. It is necessary for countries (or regions) to strengthen financial coordination and cooperation in the region, and the Asian regional currencies are facing the necessity and trend of re-integration. This paper holds that the degree of economic and financial integration in Asia has been continuously improved, and the main economic indicators of major countries and regions have gradually converged, but the foundation of monetary cooperation is still weak, which does not fully meet the standards of the optimal currency area. The trend of regional monetary integration in Asia in the future is single currency and sub-currency, but this evolution process is gradual and gradual. Its evolution can be divided into three levels: first, the establishment of regional financial cooperation organizations; The second is to establish an Asian exchange rate mechanism; The third is the final transition to the Asian single currency area. Although the establishment of Asian monetary union and Asian dollar is difficult, it is still worth looking forward to.

I. Historical changes of the global monetary system

Monetary system, that is, monetary system, is the general name of a series of standards, international agreements, rules and regulations, organizational mechanisms and the resulting coordination mechanisms that govern the monetary relations of various countries. Throughout the century-long changes in the international monetary system, it can be roughly divided into five stages:

1.1870-1914 is the "golden age" of the gold standard. Gold coins can be freely cast, circulated and exchanged, and can be freely transferred between countries, thus ensuring the stability of domestic and foreign currency values of gold coins. The "gold delivery point" rule also enables the international gold standard to freely adjust the balance of payments, thus ensuring the stability of exchange rates among currencies. Therefore, the global economy and trade developed rapidly during this period, and the international monetary order and exchange rate remained stable for a long time. However, the international gold standard still inevitably faced disintegration at the beginning of the 20th century, mainly because the contradiction between gold production and demand became increasingly prominent, and countries could only increase the paper money in circulation, which created material conditions for its disintegration. Secondly, in the absence of strict international supervision mechanism, surplus countries tend to freeze their surpluses to obtain more profits, so it is difficult to maintain the free convertibility of paper money and gold. In addition, using gold as currency requires a lot of human resources. American economist triffin pointed out: "If gold is once again used as the world currency, the fate of mankind depends on the profits of gold miners, and mankind will become slaves of gold miners."

2. After the outbreak of World War I, the participating countries imposed a gold embargo and stopped the exchange of paper money for gold, and the gold standard collapsed. After the war, people rebuilt the gold standard system. In addition to the American gold standard, countries such as Britain and France implement the gold bar standard, and most other countries implement the gold exchange standard. Therefore, the international monetary system after the First World War experienced the coexistence stage of the gold standard and the gold exchange standard and the disintegration stage of the gold standard. The gold exchange standard is a kind of "virtual gold standard", which makes China's foreign trade and finance controlled and influenced by the gold standard countries, and it is a vassal monetary system. 1925 and 1933, Britain and the United States abandoned the gold standard one after another, and capitalist countries formed relatively independent monetary groups, strengthening foreign exchange control for their own interests, which had a great destructive effect on world economy and trade. There was no unified monetary system during this period, which lasted until the end of World War II.

3. 1944 In July, the "United Nations International Monetary and Financial Conference" was held in Buffton Woods, USA, and the Bretton Woods Agreement based on the White Plan was signed, which stipulated a series of rules and regulations for member countries, such as exchange rate arrangement and balance of payments adjustment mechanism. The Bretton Woods system is actually a "dollar standard of convertible gold", but it is completely different from the gold standard, because the gold standard is linked to the domestic money supply, which will lead to monetary contraction, unemployment and depression. Now that this link has been cut off, deficit countries can get help from the IMF without having to implement monetary tightening at home. However, the establishment of this system is the result of the dispute over the dominance of British and American currencies. The dollar is linked to gold, and other countries' currencies are linked to the dollar, and the exchange rate is fixed, which essentially makes the United States almost monopolize the rules of the game in the field of money and finance. More importantly, the Bretton Woods system implies profound internal contradictions, that is, "Triffin dilemma"; If the United States maintains a surplus in its international payments, the shortage of dollars in the international financial market will inevitably affect the normal development of the global economy; If the balance of payments of the United States continues to be in deficit, although it can meet the growing international demand for US dollars as a means of payment and reserve, the expansion of the deficit means the flood of US dollars, the decline or even collapse of international confidence in US dollars, and the foundation of the Bretton Woods system will be shaken. In 1960s, when the dollar crisis broke out, it renounced its obligation to maintain the gold and the dollar ratio. Other countries announced that they would not continue to fulfill their monetary parity obligations, and the Bretton Woods system collapsed. The Bretton Woods system is essentially an international monetary system of "hegemonic cooperation". All peripheral countries must obey and maintain the dollar. Countries can't flexibly use exchange rate as a tool to adjust the balance of payments, but only passively import and export dollars in the market to offset or stabilize the surplus or shortage of dollars. When other countries are less and less able to benefit from this institutional arrangement, the systematic collapse will inevitably break out.

4. 1976 The Jamaican Agreement and the Second Amendment to the Constitution of the International Monetary Fund declared the end of the Bretton Woods system and the starting point of the post-Bretton Woods system. Its main characteristics are: first, a large number of monetization is an established fact, and the dollar has become the main standard currency without institutionalization; Second, with the collapse of the global fixed exchange rate system, exchange rate regulation relies more on the spontaneous role of the market mechanism; Third, the lack of institutionalized monetary cooperation among big countries is actually an international laissez-faire system.

This kind of system, which has neither standard moderate growth constraint nor balance of payments coordination mechanism, is usually called "non-systematic system". During this period, global inflation began to spread and various regional financial crises broke out frequently. Therefore, the European Union began its initial attempt to move towards monetary union, while most developing countries chose to peg to a single currency or currency basket, and rarely let the exchange rate float freely. The "unsystematic" system can not solve the two core problems of balance of payments and moderate growth of solvency. It overemphasizes the unilateral autonomy of exchange rate and the non-institutionalization of coordination mechanism, which makes coordination counterproductive. At the same time, due to the lack of institutionalized supervision mechanism, countries can't form a general agreement on coordination and restriction in money supply and fiscal policy, which leads to the weakness that liquidity can't grow moderately.

5. Monetary Union in the era of globalization. At the end of 1980s, some new features appeared in the international monetary system. First, under the background of economic and financial integration, there has been a trend of currency collectivization around the world, resulting in many regional monetary organizations such as West African Monetary Union, China-Africa Monetary Union and Arab Monetary Fund. However, these monetary groups are still in the stage of low integration and have little impact on the international monetary system. The establishment of the European Union and the successful launch of the euro have pushed monetary integration to a new height. Second, the American economy has been prosperous for a long time, and some countries and regions in North America and South America have experienced the phenomenon of "regional dollar", that is, dollarization. Third, regional financial crises frequently break out, and all countries are seeking effective ways to form regional monetary union in order to maintain world financial stability. It is predicted that by 2030, there will be two major currency areas in the world-the European currency area and the American currency area.

Second, Asian regional monetary cooperation is an inevitable requirement of global regional monetary integration.

From the external factors, regional monetary integration will become a new trend, and Asia cannot be isolated from the trend forever. Under the development of economic and financial globalization, in order to avoid financial turmoil, regional monetary union is most likely to appear, and regional monetary integration will form a new trend. With the expansion of the influence of the euro, it is possible to form a euro group centered on the European Monetary Union, including other EU member States, the Fallon region of Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean and the countries of Lomé Agreement. In the new world monetary system, there is a dual phenomenon between the euro and the dollar, which makes Asian countries (regions) feel a sense of crisis. If we don't strengthen the monetary cooperation in this region, it will be placed in a very disadvantageous position. 1997 since the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, Asian countries with very close economic ties have realized more deeply that it is difficult for the currencies of small and weak economies to withstand the impact of international hot money alone. In order to counter the impact of international hot money, local currency is no longer a vassal of big country's currency. Asian countries must strengthen financial coordination and cooperation in the region and create a stable Asian unified currency, thus stabilizing Asian financial markets and promoting the healthy development of Asian economy.

From the perspective of exchange rate system, the exchange rate arrangement that depends on the US dollar has threatened the stable development of Asian economy. Most countries in Asia implement fixed exchange rate systems such as Hong Kong dollar and Thai baht pegged to the US dollar. When a large number of international hot money hit Asia, the currencies of Asian countries were forced to depreciate sharply against the US dollar. The sudden devaluation of their currencies brought economic panic in the region, and the huge drop in stock prices severely hit economic development. The only way to eliminate the exchange rate risk linked to the dollar and reduce the uncertainty of economic exchanges is to eliminate the influence of the dollar, get rid of the exchange rate that relies too much on the dollar and create a unified currency in Asia.

From the perspective of the costs and benefits of monetary cooperation, the implementation of regional monetary cooperation and single currency will greatly reduce the transaction costs among member countries, further stabilize the exchange rate and completely eliminate the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, thus expanding the scale of intra-regional trade and investment and promoting economic development. The main cost of monetary cooperation is that members lose their sovereignty over monetary policy, but with the continuous improvement of regional economic integration, this cost will become relatively small.

Third, the current situation of regional economic development in Asia and the feasibility of monetary cooperation.

1997, Japan put forward the idea of establishing an Asian monetary fund and promised to provide it with 1000 billion dollars. From May 6 to 8, 2000, the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank and the meeting of finance ministers of China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN *** 13 countries were held in Qingliao, Thailand, marking the beginning of the pragmatic stage of Asian monetary cooperation. However, whether these ideas can be realized mainly depends on whether the degree of economic integration in Asia has reached the standard of the optimal currency area for implementing a single currency.

(1) From the perspective of regional economic integration, Asian countries have strong economic complementarities, developed intra-regional trade and investment, and strong interdependence among countries. East Asia has a vast territory and abundant natural resources, but they are unevenly distributed and highly complementary. Chinese mainland and the "Four Little Dragons of Asia" are very rich in natural resources, while Japanese and the "Four Little Dragons of Asia" are relatively lacking in natural resources. Therefore, due to the strong complementarity between import and export products and resources, trade and investment between East Asian countries and regions are very developed. Judging from the volume of import and export trade in East Asia, the degree of interdependence between them is very close (see table 1).

Table 1 Interdependence of East Asian Countries and Regions

Unit: USD 100 million

Exporting country (region) Importing country (region) Japan, Asia, Asia and Chinese mainland.

"four little dragons" and "four little tigers"

Japanese version-779.3311.8161.8

Asian "Four Little Dragons" 315.8 392.6291.2319.8

Asian "Four Tigers" 234.2 307.5 52.6 3 1.5

Chinese mainland110.1.419.3

Source: Four-Level Economy in Asia by Lin Huasheng, Economic Management Press, 1997 edition, P 1 1.

At the same time, investment and cooperation in Asia have gradually increased. The "flying geese" model of Asian economic development has opened up broad prospects for regional economic cooperation and technical exchanges. After the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, with the economic recovery of East Asian countries, emerging industrial zones in East Asia have gradually become the largest investors in East Asian countries. From 65438 to 0998, Japan's total direct investment in Asia increased to 835.7 million yen, accounting for 16% of the world. By the end of May 2000, more than 80 countries and regions in the world had invested more than US$ 623.3 billion in China, among which the top five countries were all Southeast Asian countries and regions except the United States. Long-term trade cooperation and developed trade and investment in the region show that the degree of economic integration in Asia is constantly improving, and the Asian economy is gradually moving towards "self-reliance", which brings full feasibility to monetary cooperation, monetary union and single currency.

(2) According to the theory of optimal currency area, countries with the following characteristics are suitable to form a currency cooperation area: high economic openness, strong mobility of labor and capital, flexible wages and prices, similar monetary policy objectives and so on.

1. Opening to the outside world

Economic integration is accompanied by the integration of investment and financing activities. Therefore, the degree of a country's opening to the outside world should be measured not only by the proportion of foreign trade in GDP, but also by the comprehensive degree of openness, so as to reflect the degree of integration of a country's trade, investment, finance and the world economy. The comprehensive openness of East Asia is very high, but there are great differences among countries. China, Hong Kong and Singapore are regional trade centers and financial centers, with a high degree of opening to the outside world. However, the comprehensive opening indicators of China, Japan and South Korea are low. On the average, the openness of East Asia is higher than that of Western Europe, which shows that the export-oriented "Four Small" Asian countries and ASEAN countries are basically open economies, which are very sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations and urgently need to stabilize exchange rates and carry out monetary cooperation.

2. Wage price elasticity

Three characteristics of East Asia make wages and prices more flexible. First, the eastern and western regions are developing regions with a high growth rate, and some countries have just completed industrialization. While other countries are in the process of industrialization. The process of industrialization is accompanied by the large-scale transfer of rural labor to cities, which not only meets the huge demand for urban labor in the process of industrialization, but also ensures the full flexibility of the labor market. Second, East Asian countries and regions generally do not formulate laws and regulations such as minimum wage law and employment security law, so that wages are basically determined by the supply and demand relationship in the labor market, and the labor market is not distorted. Third, the strength of trade unions in Asian countries is weaker than that in Europe and America, and their bargaining power is lower; The unemployment insurance system is also imperfect, resulting in weak wage rigidity. Wage is the most important part of enterprise cost, and its high elasticity ensures the high elasticity of product price.

3. Flexibility of factor market

The more flexible the factor market, the higher the mobility of capital and labor, and the greater the degree of fiscal transfer of member countries, the more likely these countries are to form an optimal currency area. There are many factors that restrict the labor mobility in Asian countries and regions, including language barriers, legal barriers, cultural barriers and political barriers. This makes the labor mobility in East Asia very low.

The liquidity of capital can be reflected by the degree of financial deepening, because financial deepening is the characteristic basis of full capital flow. The degree of financial deepening can be evaluated from two aspects. One is the degree of government control over finance, such as interest rate control, foreign exchange control, capital flow management, financial industry access control and so on. The other is the degree of development of financial markets, such as the number of financial mechanisms, the richness of financial instruments and international financial facilities.

Asian countries (regions) have different levels of financial development, which can be divided into three categories: the first category consists of China, Hongkong and Singapore. These countries and regions have a high degree of financial deepening and are regional financial centers, and there are basically no obstacles to capital flow. The second category includes China, Taiwan Province Province, Malaysia, Thailand and Japan. These countries and regions are in the process of financial deepening, the government's financial control has been greatly relaxed, and the financial market has also developed to a certain extent. The third category includes China, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines. In these countries, financial liberalization started late, the government still has many controls on finance, and capital flows face great policy and market obstacles. Due to the financial repression of some big countries in Asia-China, South Korea and Japan, there are some obstacles in capital flow, which leads to low liquidity in the whole Asian region.

4. Level and consistency of economic development.

After the financial crisis, GDP in East Asia has increased year by year, but there are also some differences. Unemployment rate is 30%-6%, and the consumer price index fluctuates greatly; Basic interest rates Except for the Philippines and Indonesia, interest rates in other countries are relatively close; The ratio of foreign debt to GDP is lower than 60% set by EU countries except Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. Exchange rate fluctuations are also small. All these fully show that the main economic indicators of ten countries and regions in East Asia have gradually become consistent, and the level of economic development has also become consistent, which has taken a very crucial step on the road of unifying the currency.

5. Similarity of policy objectives

The higher the similarity of policy objectives, the easier it is for monetary cooperative countries to coordinate their policies in response to economic shocks, and the easier it is for monetary cooperation to succeed. An important indicator to measure whether the policy objectives of various countries are consistent is the inflation rate. Comparing the consumer price indices of East Asian countries 1992 to 1998, it is found that the low inflation rate group includes Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China. The high inflation group includes Indonesia, China and the Philippines. The standard deviation of inflation rate in all countries is 5.2%, which is greater than that in nine western European countries (1970- 1980). The obvious differences in inflation rates among East Asian countries have brought certain difficulties to policy coordination after the establishment of a unified currency area.

To sum up, the degree of integration in Asia is constantly improving, but the theory of optimal currency area is still not fully satisfied in terms of the mobility of production factors and the consistency of policy objectives. Therefore, at present, the Asian region is far from establishing a unified currency-Asian dollar, and it does not have the conditions to establish a real monetary cooperation mechanism with institutional guarantee and exchange rate target area as the main body, like the European monetary system. To be exact, it is currently in the preparatory stage of monetary cooperation. This period mainly has the following characteristics:

First of all, it is bilateral. Although trade and investment liberalization has improved, it is still in the middle stage, and monetary integration has not been put on the agenda. Some countries with close economic and trade ties and relatively smooth economic integration have the will and possibility to take further actions in monetary integration, but the degree of economic integration in the whole region is different, and monetary cooperation is often carried out between two or three countries in the form of agreements signed by two or more countries.

Second, there is no strict framework agreement on exchange rate stability, but only tentative cooperation on exchange rate stability, such as establishing bilateral or multilateral government currency swap agreements, emergency monetary assistance agreements, and intervention in market exchange rates. , and the exchange rate target area plan has not yet been formed.

Third, the liberalization of trade and investment has not yet entered an advanced stage, the internal correlation between trade and investment has not yet reached a higher stage, and there is still a distance from the conditions of the optimal currency area.

IV. Future Prospects of Asian Regional Monetary Cooperation in the 2nd/Kloc-0th Century

Under the background of globalization, the evolution path of monetary union as the infrastructure of monetary system has many possibilities. At present, there are at least three forms: single currency union, multiple currency union and dominant currency regionalization. The future Asian dollar belongs to the second evolution path, that is, multi-currency union, and its evolution can be divided into three levels:

The first is to establish a crisis relief agency in the region. Such as the Asian Monetary Fund (AMF). Judging from the current situation in Asia, it is this level. The establishment of AMF can draw lessons from the successful experience of the International Monetary Fund and be designed in combination with the characteristics of Asian financial structure. The basic framework of AMF should be easy before difficult, and implemented after full consultation and discussion in relevant countries and regions. In view of the close economic ties and small economic differences between East Asian countries and regions, it can be brewed and implemented within ASEAN first, and other mature Asian countries and regions can gradually join later. As the research center of regional financial markets, AMF should play the following functions: First, it should conduct routine monitoring of member countries and put forward analysis reports and opinions and suggestions on financial supervision and policies. Second, study and formulate standards and rules of conduct of member countries to improve the transparency and supervision effectiveness of member financial operations. Third, establish a financing mechanism to disperse and resolve regional financial risks and stabilize the financial market. Fourth, give play to the role of lender of last resort and provide timely emergency assistance to members caught in financial crisis and economic difficulties, so as to stabilize their financial situation, avoid all-round social and economic crisis, prevent regional financial crisis and economic turmoil, and reduce the systemic risks of financial globalization.

The second is to establish an Asian exchange rate linkage mechanism AERM (Asian exchange rate mechanism) similar to the European exchange rate mechanism ERM. At the initial stage of this level, it is difficult for Asia to get rid of its dependence and influence on the American economy. The exchange rate systems of all countries are basically pegged to the US dollar and linked to the average exchange rate. Therefore, at this level, AERM can be implemented by using the US dollar as an external nominal anchor, that is, countries that have close economic and trade exchanges with the United States use the US dollar instead of their own currencies, and determine the exchange rates with member countries according to the exchange rates between their own currencies and the United States. Countries have the responsibility and obligation to keep the exchange rate within a specific exchange rate target area. With the continuous improvement of regional economic integration in Asia, the Asian economy will gradually become independent and its dependence on the United States will continue to decrease. At this time, countries can choose a basket of currencies according to their own trade proportion and economic strength in the region, and implement a fixed exchange rate system (Mackinon, 200 1) that is pegged to the basket of currencies and floating uniformly. The exchange rate cooperation mechanism at this level can start from two or more countries and gradually expand to all regions in the subregion and Asia.

Third, the final transition to ACA (Asian Monetary Area). The empirical analysis shows that the exchange rate cooperation mechanism is difficult to maintain due to the lack of internal restraint mechanism among member countries, and the Asian exchange rate linkage mechanism must evolve to ACA. Regarding the construction of the Asian single currency area, it can be divided into three types:

1. Establish an Asian single currency area with the Japanese yen as the core. Japan's economic aggregate ranks second in the world, and its inflation rate has remained at a low level. The yen is also the most international currency in the region. In recent years, Japan's economic relations with East Asian countries have become closer and closer, and its importance in some countries has surpassed that of the United States. However, some defects in Japan make it difficult for the yen to play the role of a central currency. The proportion of Japanese yen in international trade and financial transactions is low, and compared with the United States, it still lacks a mature domestic financial market with a certain depth and breadth, so the position of Japanese yen in international financial transactions is even lower. In addition, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fluctuates frequently, making it one of the most unstable currencies in developed countries. In recent years, there is a serious surplus of domestic funds in Japan, the deposit and loan interest rates continue to be extremely low, the yen has depreciated sharply, and the domestic economic development is extremely unstable. Some Asian countries can't forget the sufferings brought by Japan's implementation of the "Greater East Asia Glory Circle". Therefore, to become a pillar currency in Asia, the Japanese yen faces both economic and political obstacles.

2. Establish an Asian single currency area with RMB as the core. China is one of the countries with the fastest economic growth in Asia: the overall economic scale and huge domestic market give China considerable influence and voice in East Asia and even the world. During the Southeast Asian financial crisis, China kept the RMB exchange rate stable, which made the RMB play a great role in stabilizing the international monetary system and won China an international reputation. However, China's current economic strength is still difficult to play the role of a central currency. For example, per capita GDP is still at a low level; Although we have accepted Article 8 of the International Monetary Fund, capital account control is still very strict. China's backward and strictly controlled financial system and market also make it difficult for RMB to become an international currency in a short time, and it will take time for RMB to be internationalized.

3. Imitate the euro and create a single currency area in Asia. In other words, several countries in the region have established internal anchors, starting with the unit of bookkeeping currency and eventually transitioning to a single currency. Since Japan's GDP accounts for two-thirds of East Asia, its essence is exactly the same as creating an Asian single currency with the yen as the core.

The successful experience of European Monetary Union tells us that monetary union should be backed by a political union. Compared with Europe, the difficulty of establishing the Asian dollar in the future may be mainly political. For a long time, there are differences in territorial disputes, cultural traditions, religious beliefs and values between countries and regions in East Asia, so they regard each other more as competitors than potential partners. Secondly, the establishment of a single currency and Asian dollar requires countries to cede part of their economic policy autonomy and obey a constant monetary policy. However, East Asian countries have not shown the determination to give up part of their monetary policy autonomy in exchange for the success of monetary cooperation. Therefore, how to strengthen political exchanges and cooperation among Asian countries while maintaining stable economic development is the main problem to be considered in establishing Asian regional monetary union.

Looking forward to the future prospect of regional monetary cooperation in Asia, although there are many obstacles and difficulties in establishing a single Asian currency, the Asian dollar, if Asian countries can trust and cooperate with each other, the Asian economy can develop relatively steadily, and there is still huge room for regional monetary integration in Asia.