In the era of black iron, how to go to real estate in 2022?

Three main trends are preliminarily revealed.

At the beginning of the Year of the Tiger, Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke's Board of Directors, sounded the alarm for the real estate circle.

This time, Yu Liang defined the current era of the real estate industry as the "black iron era", and proposed that 2022 will be the year of Vanke's "cross the rubicon": whether it is dead or alive, there is no intermediate state.

Behind this remark, it stems from the cold current of the real estate industry that lasted for nearly 1 year. Now real estate has been shrouded in pessimism and fragility, and the stock market and bond market are jittery. It is undeniable that the real estate market in 2022 has undergone qualitative changes.

However, amid the vicious words, the warm wind of recent policies has frequently blown to real estate, and credit has also ushered in a long-lost window period. Under the alternation of "cold" and "hot", where will the real estate in 2022 go?

The discount for housing enterprises to "grab" is greater than before.

Since the beginning of this year, personal housing loans have accelerated, interest rates have been lowered, and signs of recovery are obvious. At the same time, the financing environment of real estate enterprises has improved.

According to the latest data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in June 5438+ 10, and the monthly data reached a record high, which ushered in a "good start" for credit. Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 2 1 trillion yuan.

Citic Securities pointed out that with the recovery of infrastructure and the relaxation of housing-related loans, the credit window is expected to gradually open. However, this window period is very short. It believes that the first quarter will be the high point of credit supply for the whole year. At present, the bond market has entered the oxtail market, so we need to be alert to the adjustment after the data picked up at the end of the first quarter.

According to Lu Wenxi, chief market analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate Consulting Co., Ltd., the current rescue policy is warm and the market sentiment is warm. It is feasible to exchange the price for "blood return" within this time window. "It is expected that real estate enterprises will take active measures in marketing actions."

In fact, many real estate enterprises have started the action of "grabbing people". On February 14, Jinke Shaanxi Guan Wei announced that 0 yuan, a project of xi Jinke Cuibo Tianchen, snapped up the qualification for purchasing special parking spaces; Xianyang Jinke Jimei jiayue Project grabs a good position every day 13.3 yuan; Ankang Jinke Jimei County Project, with a down payment of 60,000 yuan, gives away a house 10 square meter. On the same day, the three cities in the northeast of Longhu jointly launched preferential activities, with project discounts ranging from 9.3 to 9.9 fold.

According to incomplete statistics, the current discount promotion list includes more than 10 large housing enterprises such as Longhu, Sunac, Vanke, Xuhui, Poly, Jindi, Rong Sheng Development (002 146), Country Garden, R&F, China Resources, China Shipping, Agile, Yuexiu and Jinke.

For example, Jinmao Beijing International Community Spring Festival special housing will be reduced by 20,000 sets in a limited time; Agile Sky 7 15 offers nearly 50% discount; On the basis of "one-price" preferential housing, China Shipping Global Vision can get a five-year property fee when the old owners recommend new customers to clinch a deal, and new customers can also get benefits such as a certain reduction in the total housing price (except preferential housing).

Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of RealData, told.

At present, housing enterprises are under great pressure to repay debts. It is estimated that the debts due by housing enterprises in 2022 will be about 960.3 billion yuan. Housing enterprises have a high demand for sales rebates. After the improvement of housing credit environment, it is conducive to the demand for housing. Housing enterprises with high debt repayment pressure will adopt a promotion strategy, and the discount will be greater than in previous years.

The turnover of second-hand houses is expected to quadruple.

Although developers offer real money as a means of promotion, consumers do not show a strong willingness to buy.

This year's Spring Festival holiday, the peak of returning home in previous years, the performance is very low. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, during the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, 959 sets of new houses were sold in 15 key cities, hitting a five-year low, down 42. 1% compared with last year. In the same period, the monitoring data of the Central Index also showed that the transaction area of newly-built commercial housing in key monitoring cities decreased by 5 1% compared with the Spring Festival last year.

Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, explained that the current market is very depressed, and consumers lack confidence, so they will worry about unfinished business and substandard quality. Therefore, under the pressure of falling house prices, consumers' trading psychology will tilt towards prospective existing houses, existing houses and second-hand houses. "The proportion of second-hand housing transactions is expected to increase significantly this year."

At the same time, Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jing Hui think tank, believes that another tipping point of second-hand housing transactions is coming, that is, the levy of real estate tax. This year, real estate tax will land in some cities in China, and it is likely to be levied on many owners who hold a large area. The consequence is undoubtedly to increase the number of houses sold and rented.

Hu Jinghui emphasized that under the general principle that the overall tax burden will not increase, the tax on holding links will be increased while the tax on trading links will be reduced accordingly. "There will be more houses, more customers and less transaction volume."

Taking Beijing as an example, he pointed out that in recent years, the average annual turnover of second-hand houses in Beijing is16-170,000 sets, which is only 1.6%- 1.7% compared with the stock pool in the United States.

From the data point of view, the current second-hand housing transaction volume has shown a warming trend. According to the data of RealData, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in popular areas in Beijing has been increasing month by month since 20211,and the corresponding houses are also increasing.

According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing last year was 9340 sets, 1 1 set and 14265 sets respectively. Since June 65438+ 10 this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing has maintained a recovery growth. According to the Securities Daily, from June 65438+1October 65438+1October 23 to June 65438+1October 23, the daily average transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing chain homes increased by about 5% compared with the daily average level in February last year.

The wave of asset transfer will continue.

Although the market credit is relaxed, not all enterprises can seize this window period. For thunderstorm housing enterprises, financing channels are blocked, and consumers and investors lose confidence in them. Even in the policy window, it is difficult to change their own situation, and they still have to rely more on the transfer of assets to "return blood".

As Pan Jun, president of Fantasia, said: "The group has no function of' returning blood' and no function of financing, so it can only rely on changing its selling point."

At the beginning of 2022, a number of housing enterprises also joined the army of selling assets to supplement cash flow. According to incomplete statistics, some real estate enterprises such as Evergrande, Shimao, Zhongnan, Yuzhou, Agile, Fantasia and Blu-ray Development (600466) have transferred some assets.

"Land-based enterprises are not willing to make large discounts and promotions at present, because the price will be kept very low now." Lu Wenxi said that housing enterprises are not willing to release too many assets at present, because the market price is very low now, but enterprises are more willing to return blood through sales rather than sell assets at a big discount. However, in another quarter to two quarters, enterprises will realize that there is really no way to "return blood", and they will accelerate the pace of selling assets, and the tide of asset transfer will continue. At this time, the price can only be "slaughtered at will", and the buyer has more say. It is expected that local city investment, state-owned central enterprises, Vanke, Longhu and other private enterprises with abundant cash flow will be at the bottom.

Although these well-funded peers are like killers waiting for opportunities, trying to kill "bloody" projects at high prices, in Bai Wenxi's view, the high probability of transferring assets at a very low price will not be realized, because if assets are disposed of cheaply in a large area, enterprises with high debt ratio and poor cash flow will go bankrupt directly, so the discount on asset disposal of real estate enterprises will not be too great. "General mortgages are 4-7 fold, and assets are transferred for money, so the discount will not be higher than the mortgage interest rate."

Now the existing housing enterprises obviously will not sell assets cheaply. On the sixth day of Lunar New Year, Xu Jiayin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Evergrande Group, held a mobilization meeting for the opening of the 2022 New Year. At the meeting, he bluntly said that it is absolutely not allowed to sell company assets at a low price. "We should pay attention to prevent loopholes in the process of asset disposal, and we cannot pay off debts by selling assets at low prices, otherwise it will be difficult to pay off debts after selling assets at low prices."

However, whether housing enterprises are willing to admit it or not, the pressure of debt repayment can not be ignored. According to Cree data, in 2022 100, the maturity of overseas debt financing of typical real estate enterprises was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, of which 1 was as high as 62.7 billion yuan, the highest in the past two years; In addition, March, April, June and July are all small repayment peaks of overseas debt financing.

The beginning of 2022 is more complicated than in previous years. Next, waiting for housing enterprises will still be a bloody melee. Who can be invincible in the end will test the judgment and decision-making power of the decision-making level.