Hainan Free Trade Port "refuses real estate" overseas funds still look at commercial properties.

The overall plan for the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port was released on June 1, but it has little to do with real estate.

With regard to real estate, the "Proposal" has only one sentence, that is, "supporting the innovation and standardized development of housing leasing financial business and supporting the development of real estate investment trusts".

This is similar to the Hainan property market that has been trapped under the "freezing" policy for more than two years. Taking the construction of a free trade port as an opportunity, Hainan is experiencing a real estate movement in the past two years with the determination to "break the wrist of a strong man". In the first quarter of this year, Hainan's non-real estate investment increased by 14.8% year-on-year, accounting for 62.2% of the province's total investment, exceeding 60% for the first time since 20 1 1.

On June 8, Liu Cigui, secretary of Hainan Provincial Party Committee, talked about Hainan's strict implementation of real estate control policies, saying that real estate would be strictly controlled. Hainan's real estate should not be built as much as it wants outside and become a real estate processing factory. Land is limited, and there have been lessons in history. The construction of a modern industrial system cannot be single.

A person in charge of sales of a TOP5 real estate project in Hainan revealed to the reporter of Securities Times E Company that after the introduction of the free trade port policy, local residents just need to feel the potential of Hainan, and the number of people who come to see the house has indeed increased; Non-Hainan residents began to consult commercial real estate such as office buildings and pay close attention to the future appreciation space.

Purchase restriction plus code

On June 6th, a reporter from Securities Times E Company came to the west coast where Haikou Municipal Government is located. New buildings are stacked on top of each other, but there are few pedestrians and vehicles on the well-planned roads. Except for the Yuanda City Shopping Center in the regional center, there is still some popularity, and the other streets are quite deserted.

After ten years of development, the west coast of Haikou still needs to gather popularity, which is due to the long traffic and insufficient employment opportunities, and is also the crux of the real estate being dominated by migratory bird investors. According to market analysis and investigation, 65-70% of buyers are pension and holiday customers and investors, which leads to a very low lighting rate in the west coast.

At that time, the pain left by the super-high-speed development of Hainan real estate is still vivid. However, from April 20 18, the route for foreign investors to enter Qiong was directly banned. On April 22nd, 20 18, the General Office of Hainan Provincial Party Committee and the General Office of Hainan Provincial Government jointly issued the Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate Market, which imposed a global purchase restriction on Hainan real estate.

During the epidemic, Hainan implemented the "existing home sales" policy in March this year. From March 8, the policy of restricting the purchase of multiple sets of housing by local residents will be strictly implemented, and the sale of affordable housing and commercial housing to households with household registration and permanent residents in this province who already own two or more sets of housing will be stopped.

Under the constant overweight of regulation, the market has steadily cooled down. "Especially in March this year, Hainan first promoted the existing home sales policy. This was during the epidemic period, and the reaction in the industry was relatively large, showing the determination of the Hainan government to regulate housing prices. " Wang Lu, secretary general of Haikou Real Estate Association, said.

In 20 17, the sales of commercial housing in Hainan province reached a record high, reaching 2.7137 billion yuan, up 82. 1% year-on-year. But in 20 18, this index dropped by 23.2%. By 20 19, the sales of commercial housing in Hainan continued to decline by 38.8% year-on-year; In the first four months of this year, the sales of commercial housing in Hainan shrank again by 45. 1% to 22.438+billion yuan. The year-on-year decline in sales has expanded year by year.

Looking back on the process of real estate regulation and control in Hainan, Liu Cigui, secretary of Hainan Provincial Party Committee, said on June 8, "Starting from 20 15, we put forward' two suspensions' for real estate, one is to suspend land grant, and the other is to suspend the approval of land acquisition by real estate developers. Because at that time, real estate developers had mastered hundreds of thousands of acres of land resources that could be used to build commercial housing. At that time, there were more than 20,000 real estate developers in Hainan. Many cities and counties rely on real estate to sell land to build houses to obtain tax revenue and investment in fixed assets. Later, two-thirds of the cities and counties canceled the assessment of fixed assets investment and fiscal revenue. In fact, in order to implement the concept that houses are used for living, not for speculation, the real estate industry in cities and counties has been fundamentally restricted. "

Xia Feng, a researcher at the School of Politics and Management of Hainan University, believes that history has proved that it is unsustainable for any region or city to rely entirely on real estate development. Insisting on "housing and not speculating" is to set the tone for the construction and development of Hainan Free Trade Port and get rid of real estate dependence.

Frozen state

"After the global purchase restriction, there are few qualified buyers in the new markets of other cities and counties, and the sales volume and sales volume have shrunk to less than 30% before." A person in charge of real estate project sales of TOP5 in Hainan area talked about it.

Walking on the streets of Haikou, most of the dense intermediary pavements in the past are no longer open, and some shops that are open for business are empty. There are many properties for sale in Haikou, and the huge marketing center is empty. "The purchase restriction policy has not left any room for investors on and off the island. Only some Hainan locals just need customers to come to see the house, but such demand is limited after all. " The person in charge of the aforementioned project sales said.

According to the statistics of Hainan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in the first four months of 2020, among the 9 cities and counties in/kloc-0, there are 9 cities and counties whose sales area is less than 10000 square meters; There are 8 cities and counties with sales below 1 100 million yuan, most of which are concentrated in the central and western parts of Hainan.

In Haikou, a major town in Hainan's property market, although the purchase restriction is overweight, local supply and demand customers and improved local demand are still strong. On June 6, a new existing house was built in a building near Jiangdong New District in Haikou, which was basically sold out that morning. "As long as the location is good enough and there is a location advantage, it is still not for sale in Haikou and Sanya."

In 20 19, the annual sales area of Haikou reached 4,405,600 square meters, up by12% year-on-year; Sales were about 67.78 billion yuan, up 30.2% year-on-year. The person in charge of the above-mentioned project sales said that due to the existence of the first-hand floor price limit, the new site with good location still needs local customers in Hainan.

However, similar "bamboo shoots" are a minority after all, and more small and medium-sized real estate developers are facing the pressure of de-transformation after the purchase restriction.

In addition to the decrease in buyers, the supply of new commercial housing in Hainan has been very small in the past two years. For example, according to the report of the Financial Research Institute, in 20 19, only 790 mu of commercial residential land was supplied in Haikou and Sanya, and the average de-chemical cycle decreased to 1 1 month. Without new supply, the current inventory can only support sales for less than one and a half years. Wang Lu revealed that the inventory of new houses in Haikou has bottomed out at present, and the inventory is about 5 months.

More land, changed to industrial land. According to the investment plan of key projects in Hainan Province in 2020, Hainan will arrange 105 provincial key projects in 2020 with a total investment of 377.2 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 67.7 billion yuan. It can be predicted that the construction of Hainan Industrial Park will be accelerated in the future.

In addition, the overall planning of the free trade port has given great policy inclination in cultural tourism. It is clear in the plan that we should vigorously develop tourism, support the construction of cultural tourism industrial parks, develop characteristic tourism industrial clusters, cultivate new tourism formats and models, create a global tourism demonstration province, and promote the pilot project of securitization of high-quality tourism assets with stable cash flow. Support the innovation and standardized development of housing leasing financial business and the development of real estate investment trusts (REITs).

"The free trade port is to attract more enterprises to enter, and it will resolutely take the road of living and not speculating." Wang Lu said that in the future, Hainan will increase the supply scale of industrial land and commercial property land, and the supply of residential land will decrease accordingly. Hainan will embark on the road of "de-housing", and the main track will also switch from residential real estate to commercial real estate and industrial real estate.

Future dividend

"Hainan's real estate industry is similar to Xiong' an, and Hainan may follow the development law of Xiong' an. In the last two years, Hainan has properly controlled housing prices. It is expected that Hainan will maintain its current attitude towards real estate-the house is not speculation, and this red line will not be removed because of the particularity of Hainan. " Chen Hao of Zheshang Securities believes that the reason why Hainan's housing prices are not emphasized in this plan is that Hainan has achieved remarkable results in controlling housing prices in the past two years, and it is more appropriate to maintain the current control.

With the recent announcement of the "Overall Plan for the Construction of Hainan Free Trade Port", Hainan's real estate sales are active again. "The dividends brought by the Plan are visible. Hainan's population and economic aggregate will grow steadily in the future, which is the potential of property market appreciation. "The person in charge of Hainan real estate project sales said.

After the introduction of the free trade port policy, more and more people are watching some popular properties in Haikou. The person in charge of the above-mentioned Hainan real estate project sales said that local residents in Hainan have already felt the potential of Hainan, and the number of people who come to see the house has indeed increased; Non-Hainan residents began to consult commercial real estate such as office buildings and pay close attention to the future appreciation space.

"The construction of a free trade port requires a lot of investment and development in infrastructure and urban construction, which are inseparable from real estate. Including commercial buildings, including office buildings and financial buildings. " Han Shitong, executive director of Guangdong Real Estate Research Association, told the reporter of Securities Times E Company that if the Hainan Free Trade Port scheme is put forward, it will definitely fail if it becomes a new wave of real estate development boom.

The purchase restriction lasted for two years, which limited the supply of land development. 20 17 the supply of foreign real estate in the central ecological green heart is permanently stopped, which restricts the development of coastline. There won't be much new supply in Hainan in the future, and the value of the existing stock land may be revalued.

"I don't think we should expect too much from the construction of a free trade port before 2025, but we should not expect too little from the future." Wang Lu said that the free trade port before 2025 is in the period of system construction, and more is trial and error; Five years later, with the maturity of the free trade port system, Hainan will usher in the great development and change of the system dividend.