Why did the real estate price in China continue to soar in recent 10 years?

Since the implementation of 1998 housing reform policy, China has gradually abolished welfare housing distribution and promoted housing marketization. The reason for the continuous rise of real estate prices is naturally inseparable from its supply and demand factors.

Supply factor

The characteristics of real estate development and construction and the limited land supply lead to limited real estate supply. In the context of increasing housing demand, house prices have risen.

1.？ The characteristics of real estate development and construction make the supply of real estate limited and can't keep up with the demand in the same period. The development time of a real estate generally takes 3 ~ 5 years, and it costs hundreds of millions of yuan. This makes the supply of real estate need a long time, and the supply is limited, which can't keep up with the growth of real estate demand in the same period, and it has also become a factor of rising house prices.

2.？ Limited land supply leads to limited real estate supply. Real estate development is mostly concentrated in or around towns, occupying a lot of excellent cultivated land, which is often the same as China's "65.438+08 billion mu of cultivated land"

The policy red line conflict of "shake". Coupled with the expropriation and compensation of agricultural land, the bidding, auction and hanging of state-owned land is time-consuming and labor-intensive.

3.？ The real estate industry has a semi-monopoly nature, and real estate developers often reduce housing supply and hoard prices in disguise. In order to safeguard monopoly interests, real estate developers often reduce the supply of housing in disguise by means of covering the plate and covering the land, which intensifies the rise of housing prices.

(b) demand coefficient 1. housing need

China is in a period of rapid urbanization, and a large number of working people enter the city every year. These newcomers will form the housing demand of their cities and drive the demand for supporting service facilities and commercial and residential buildings. Real estate prices have a lot of room to rise.

China's affordable housing system started late, and it takes a long time for the construction of affordable housing to gradually play its role, affecting the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market. Some low-and middle-income people who have no ability to buy houses are forced to join the army of buying houses when the market rent is too high.

From 2004 to 20 1 1, the real estate price in China continued to rise. Especially since the second half of 2009, the central government has issued a series of strict real estate control policies, but the results have been minimal. On the contrary, there has been a strange phenomenon of "more control and more skyrocketing". Some residents who are not in a hurry to improve their housing buy houses in advance, which leads to the "panic buying army" formed by rising house prices year after year, and even some families buy houses headed by minors. These premature and advanced real estate consumption behaviors have increased the demand for real estate in disguise.

2.？ Investment and speculative demand

In addition to the residential consumption demand of real estate, there are huge domestic real estate investment and speculative demand, which also boosted the rise of real estate prices.

Due to the lack of diversified investment channels, a large number of social idle funds flock to the real estate industry. In the past 10 years, the investment demand of real estate in China has been rising, pushing up the house price, which in turn leads to the increase of investment demand, forming an accelerated upward cycle of house price and investment demand.

At the same time, the expansion of speculative demand is the direct incentive to promote the continuous rise of real estate prices in China. After the global financial crisis in 2008, exports declined, domestic funds lacked suitable real economy investment fields, and a large number of them turned to the real estate economy with rising prices. Individual depositors also flow into the real estate economy through bank wealth management products with higher yield under the condition of negative interest rate on deposits.

In addition, after the financial crisis broke out in 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, western developed countries issued more money to keep interest rates close to zero for a long time, and funds flowed into China's real estate market through various channels. ?

Second, macroeconomic factors.

(A) the inflation background of the currency excess, which forms the basis and inducement for the continuous rise of real estate prices.

Mainly in the following aspects:

1.？ In the case of scarce land, the natural appreciation of real estate is easy to attract capital inflows and induce real estate prices to rise. Housing is a person's most basic survival needs, and the improvement of production conditions and office conditions related to the development of enterprises and institutions is also directly related to real estate. Due to the limited land, people have been optimistic about the rise of real estate prices. When the economic development is on the rise, many non-real estate enterprises and private investors invest heavily in real estate, which promotes the hot transactions in the real estate market.

2.？ Long-term inflation will lead to the upward trend of real estate prices. A country's period of high economic growth is often accompanied by high inflation. With the rapid growth of China's economy during the period of 10, inflation is naturally rising. In addition, due to the lack of effective market economic means to fight inflation, real estate continues to appreciate, attracting more and more investors to enter the real estate market and pushing up the real estate price. However, at present, China's market control measures are not perfect. In many cases, administrative orders are still used to regulate the real estate market, such as restrictions on purchases, prices and loans. These administrative control measures are often distorted in the implementation process, and their effects are greatly reduced.

3.？ Poor financial supervision makes macro-control easy to lead to excessive lending. Excessive lending by financial institutions is the direct catalyst for the real estate bubble. Adequate financial support is a necessary condition for the long-term sustained rise of real estate prices. Without the cooperation of banks and other financial institutions, there will be no long-term rise in real estate prices.

After the financial crisis in 2008, China's exports began to decline, making it difficult for the real economy to survive. Driven by interests, the financial industry began to turn to the real estate industry, and increased loans to local financing platforms, developers and individual buyers of real estate-related businesses such as land transfer and park development of local governments, and regarded these loans as high-quality assets with high returns and low risks. These loans are actually long-term loans with the risk of house price fluctuation, but banks use short-term deposits of bank depositors, resulting in a maturity mismatch of bank credit assets-short-term liabilities are used for long-term assets. The long-term capital investment of the banking industry in the real estate industry has objectively boosted the continuous rise of real estate prices.

(2) The financial industry evades loan supervision and uses sufficient financial support to boost real estate prices.

20 10 after the government issued the relevant credit policies for real estate economic regulation, the financial industry maintained the original real estate loan profit.

Renewing loans at maturity, using financial innovations such as bank wealth management to evade relevant policies and financial supervision, indirectly investing a lot of money into real estate-related fields through off-balance-sheet business of banks, and issuing real estate business loans in disguise, which has formed huge off-balance-sheet business risks of banks at present.

(3) Some unscrupulous real estate developers raise house prices in disguise through various means.

Some real estate developers use wealth management business and trust business to evade the financial supervision of the real estate industry by regulators. At the same time, they use the "Yin-Yang contract", false propaganda, the decline of the actual delivery quality under the pre-sale system, the increase of the pool area and other means to calculate the construction area, cover the plate and hoard the land, raise the price of newly purchased land near the old building and raise the price of the built building. Even spend a lot of money to hire "economists" and media celebrities to defend the rise in real estate prices and make suggestions for the real estate industry to escape government supervision.

Third, institutional factors.

Real estate prices continue to rise, there are still some institutional factors. The existing land system creates obstacles and rent-seeking space for real estate land supply. Farmland can not directly enter the market, and farmers' land interests can not be effectively protected, which provides space for local governments to "land finance". In addition, institutional factors have the following problems.

(A) the lack of personal real estate tax system, a large number of non-standard tax and fee policies, resulting in strong demand for real estate, real estate costs and prices continue to rise.

There are many taxes and fees for the acquisition, transaction and circulation of real estate, which are often passed on to property buyers. The lack of tax on holding real estate is not conducive to cracking down on real estate speculation and can not effectively curb the long-term abnormal rise in housing prices.

European and American countries implement relatively perfect real estate laws and regulations, implement private ownership of land, recognize the legitimate ownership of land and real estate by individuals, and have sufficient supply of land and real estate. In these countries, the real estate industry is a competitive industry, and residents can freely enter the real estate industry without huge profits. Even in the high housing price period from 200/kloc-0 to 2005, the yield of real estate industry is still lower than the average yield of high-tech industry and financial industry. At the same time, European and American countries implement real estate retention tax system and real estate transfer tax system. These real estate-related taxes increase the holding cost and transfer cost of real estate, compress the speculative space of real estate, especially civil housing, and limit the investment space and the rising space of real estate. At present, although the house price in the United States has fallen to a historical low, the high property tax has become a mountain in front of buyers.

(B) local government land finance, pushing up land prices and housing prices.

Under the background of tax-sharing system, local financial resources are reduced, and underdeveloped areas are in financial difficulties. Land revenue has become an important financial resource for local governments. In 2008, the economic growth slowed down, and local finance relied more on land finance. As a result, there has been a phenomenon that the implementation of the central policy is not active, or measures to offset the effectiveness of the policy have been introduced in disguise. This is also an important reason for the failure of regulatory policies. In addition, the long-term lack of the construction of affordable housing system has also forced people who should have entered the affordable housing to enter the army of commercial housing purchases, which has increased the demand for real estate and boosted the price increase.

(3) At present, there are no measures to control rents and protect the rights and interests of renters, which leads to soaring rents, forcing some low-and middle-income people who have no ability to buy houses and originally planned to rent houses for a long time to join the army of buying houses.

The income distribution in China is very different. In the absence of effective investment channels, some high-income people compete for high-end housing in prime locations, raising the price of the whole real estate market. Moreover, the housing rental market is not standardized, and there is no regulation mechanism for rent increase, which cannot protect the rights and interests of tenants. In the period of rising house prices, lessors often choose to sell houses or raise rents, which makes it unbearable for individuals who originally planned to rent a house but chose to buy a house.

(D) The special function of the real estate industry forces urban residents to bear high housing prices.

China's real estate industry bears a special function-social management in terms of household registration and social services. Household registration is often linked to housing and related residents' welfare. For example, if you want to buy a car, you need a local household registration and buy your own house before you can really settle down. Children can attend public schools in areas with their own houses. Personal social security and living security (minimum living security for local registered population), employment, education, medical care, etc. They are all linked to household registration and indirectly related to self-owned housing and real estate. In other words, self-owned housing is tied to the social management of residents by the government, and the living function of self-owned housing is tied to the social management function of residents. With the acceleration of urbanization, some low-and middle-income people who come to cities to make a living and rent houses are forced to buy expensive commercial houses in order to obtain urban household registration and urban public welfare without social security.

Compared with China, European and American countries have relatively perfect social management and security systems. Individuals have complete freedom of movement and equal right to education in China, and they can get the qualifications of living, settling down and social security and social services (such as children's education) without buying a house, which greatly reduces the demand for their own property.

Fourth, social factors.

/kloc-The real estate price in China continued to rise in 0/0, and there were social reasons besides the above-mentioned supply and demand factors, macroeconomic factors and institutional factors.

Sue.

(A) Housing consumption habits and social psychology

China has advocated the life philosophy and creed of "living and working in peace and contentment" since ancient times, and has a very strong demand for the security of owning a house. Social and cultural psychology and customs also force young people to enter the army of buying houses early.

(2) The social wealth distribution effect of real estate boosts housing prices.

The social wealth distribution effect of real estate forces some residents in China who can't afford to buy houses to borrow and invest in order to accumulate wealth, which also pushes up housing prices. As an anti-inflation value-added investment product, real estate will form the redistribution of social wealth in the period of high inflation, which will aggravate the unfair distribution of social wealth and widen the gap. In the case of persistent inflation and long-term rising house prices, owning one or more sets of self-owned properties means a rapid rise in self-owned wealth, while the class without real estate faces a rapid depreciation of its own monetary assets in the face of rising house prices. This distribution situation has aggravated the panic of low-and middle-income people, who go beyond purchasing power to borrow money to buy a house and invest.

(3) The increase and diversification of beneficiary groups brought by the rising real estate prices have formed a game between new social strata and public opinion in China, which has increased the difficulty of government regulation.

The social wealth distribution effect of real estate assets leads to the emergence of a housing class or an anti-housing price regulation class in China society, which greatly reduces the effectiveness of government regulation policies. During the period of inflation, the high-income class, even the middle and low-income class, formed different groups because of the existence and quantity of real estate. The class with housing or multi-housing, especially the group with a large number of loans to buy a house, is eager to realize their wealth accumulation through the continuous rise of housing prices, which often conflicts with the central government's policy of controlling housing prices.

High housing prices will bring a series of serious consequences. First of all, high housing prices have triggered social phenomena such as "house slaves", "humble abode", "ant clan" and "rat clan", which has led to outstanding social problems. Secondly, high housing prices will squeeze the consumption power of ordinary wage earners, which is not conducive to stimulating domestic demand. Third, high rents (including residential rents, factory rents and shop rents) under high housing prices will increase people's living costs and enterprise production costs, increase the inflationary pressure in China, attract a large number of financial resources and social capital to flow into the real estate industry, further weaken the manufacturing industry that has been exhausted due to sluggish exports, and bring about the mismatch of social resources. Fourth, the continuous rise in housing prices will continue to increase the wealth of homeowners, and wealth will increase. The savings of people without houses will depreciate, their wealth will shrink, and they can't afford to buy houses, further widening the social wealth gap and further intensifying social contradictions. To solve these problems, the government and all social strata need to reach a consensus, make joint efforts, effectively regulate real estate, break the cycle of continuous rising real estate prices, and return real estate prices to normal levels and embark on a virtuous circle.

The government should establish and improve relevant systems, policies and measures, remove the social management functions and public welfare functions that real estate should not have, improve macro-control measures, strengthen financial supervision and real estate industry supervision, establish and improve affordable housing system, and strengthen rent control policies and tenant rights protection system.

Hope to adopt