Analysis on the listing process of Jinmao Real Estate

China Jinmao's action to buy back shares of the company has lasted for three trading days.

On the evening of February 1, China Jinmao announced that the company repurchased 4.54 million shares of the company at a price ranging from 3. 1 1 to 3.2 1 HK$ at a cost of HK$14.46 million.

65438+1On 28th and 29th of October, China Jinmao repurchased120,000 shares and 6.26 million shares of the company, which cost HK$ 36.32 million and HK$19.06 million respectively. Therefore, listed companies bought back 22.8 million shares at a total cost of HK$ 69.84 million.

The repurchase for three consecutive trading days finally reversed the recent decline of China Jinmao. On February 2nd, after a morning's shock, China Jinmao turned red in the afternoon and closed at HK$ 3.27, an increase of 1.87%.

The starting point of China Jinmao's share price decline is the 2020 annual performance warning announcement.

654381On the evening of October 25th, China Jinmao issued a profit warning, predicting that the profit attributable to the company's shareholders in 2020 will decrease by 40%-50% compared with that in 20 19. Affected by this, on June 26, 65438, China Jinmao's share price opened lower by more than 13% and continued to fall, closing down by 16.54%.

China Jinmao said that this was due to the regulation of the real estate market and other reasons, which led to the project price being lower than expected, and it was necessary to make provision for impairment of properties under construction and held for sale. According to Guotai Junan's estimation,

The market generally believes that the reason for China Jinmao's one-time provision is that the land king who won it in a big way before buried the "thunder".

Xie Haoyu, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, believes that the sales growth rate (up by 44% in 2020) and average price (above 20,000 yuan/flat) of China Jinmao in recent two years are better than those of other enterprises in the same echelon, but the impairment is still accrued, which shows that it is not the sales end problem, but the land acquisition price in the historical open market is too high, which meets the strict price limit.

According to public information, during the hot period of 20 16-20 17, China Jinmao won Wang Di projects frequently in many places such as Ning, Shen and Xia. For example, from 2065438 to May 2006, China Jinmao robbed two landlords in Hexi with a floor price of about 37,000 yuan/square meter and Nanjing with a floor price of 36,900 yuan/square meter, while the average selling price of second-hand houses in the surrounding area was only 30,000 yuan/square meter.

The hot market was followed by a round of strict regulation and control, and policies such as "price limit" were introduced one after another, and the problem that China Jinmao faced with the profit margin was gradually revealed.

The data shows that from 20 16 to 20 19, the net profit of China Jinmao reached 2.536 billion yuan, 3.978 billion yuan, 5.2.1/kloc-0 billion yuan and 6.452 billion yuan respectively.

While the profit growth rate gradually narrowed, the gross profit margin of China Jinmao also fluctuated. In 20 18, its overall gross profit rate reached a high of 38%, and in 20 19, it dropped by 9 percentage points irresistibly, and its overall sales gross profit rate was 29%.

This is mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin of urban operation and property development. According to the annual report, in 20 19, the gross profit margin of urban management and property development in China Jinmao decreased by 9 percentage points to 27% compared with 20 18.

In the middle of 2020, the downward trend of China Jinmao's gross profit margin temporarily eased, and the overall gross profit margin was 32%, which was higher than the growth at the end of 20 19. However, by the end of September, 2020, its overall gross profit margin dropped to 22.47% again, which was almost halved compared with 40.69% in the same period of 20 19.

It is worth mentioning that China Jinmao has opened up a variety of land acquisition methods and gradually reduced the cost of land acquisition. Guotai Junan Research Report shows that in the first half of 20 16-2020, the proportion of land acquisition in Jinmao's urban operation mode increased from 7% to 50%, driving the floor price to drop from 17274 yuan/square meter to 8024 yuan/square meter; The accumulated soil reserve in Jinmao is as high as 90.69 million cubic meters, of which 3 1% is contributed by urban operation mode.

However, it will take time to test how much space this can bring to China Jinmao's future performance growth.

It is reported that most of China Jinmao's urban operation projects are located in the third-and fourth-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta, which is sinking compared with its previous urban layout.

Editor Shen Yujie

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