Chengdu property market: the strong are strong and the weak are out.

In the process of anxiety, hesitation, change and breakthrough, the wheels of Chengdu property market are rolling forward, and in the game of fire, ice and life, it has gone through an uneven first half year. The phenomenon of "the strong are always strong and the weak are out" is even more cruel and obvious in the first half of the year. In Chengdu's sales list, Blu-ray, Poly, Greenland, Longhu, Vanke and other real estate enterprises still stabilize the general trend and set the main tone for the market. The appeal of high-quality products and excellent brands is particularly prominent at this time. At the same time, there are also many "dark horses" who are brave in innovation and determined to break through. Lanrun, Ocean Shipping, Swire, Hongzhan and other enterprises performed well, injecting fresh vitality into the property market. Who dominated the market in the first half of the year? Who is setting the tone for the property market? Which companies win market recognition and deserve industry respect? Which sectors are facing difficulties and struggling? Huaxi Dushi Bao and Ruili Data exclusively published the "20 14 Semi-annual Report on the Property Market", which deeply analyzed the changes in the property market in the first half of the year.

Sales characteristics

Blu-ray Poly continues to lead the "dark horse" top 4.

On July 1 day, Chengdu Transparent Real Estate Network released the List of Chengdu Property Market in the First Half of 20 14. Judging from the TOP20 list, Blu-ray Group, a local housing enterprise, still takes the lead, followed by Poly Group, a state-owned enterprise, and the performance of Confidence Group and China Railway Second Bureau was remarkable. It is worth mentioning that the ranking of filing area of trust group rose from the 4th place last year to the 3rd place this year, and the ranking of filing amount rose from 10 last year to the 7th place. The ranking of the filing area of China Railway Second Bureau rose from the 7th place last year to the 4th place, and the ranking of the filing amount rose from 13 place last year to the 5th place. The market performance of these two companies has been relatively low-key, but their slow and steady style has successfully dealt with the sudden changes in the market. It is worth noting that in the first half of this year, some new faces were added to the top 20 list, namely, Lanrun Group, Ocean Land, Swire Land and Sichuan Wenzi Real Estate Development and Investment Co., Ltd. rose strongly and entered the top 20 list one after another, becoming the dark horse that attracted much attention in the first half of this year. From the sales performance of a single project, in the first half of 20 14, Intercontinental Spring Plaza ranked first in Chengdu with 1464 sets of transactions; Fantasy Flower City ranks first in Chengdu with a transaction area of 1 18400 square meters; The Green Center ranked first in Chengdu with a total turnover of 957 million yuan, and the Longhu Qingcheng Courtyard ranked first in Chengdu with an average turnover of 26,265,438 yuan +09 yuan /m2. Most of these are large-scale markets developed by brand real estate enterprises, which have become the core of the region with high-end quality and perfect supporting facilities, and naturally show super gold absorption ability. However, according to the vertical comparison of the data of Chengdu Transparent Real Estate Network in previous years, the performance of listed companies generally declined. 20 14 in the first half of the year, the filing area of the top 20 real estate enterprises in Chengdu was 4,383,900 ㎡, down 10% year-on-year. The sales amount * * * was 360.1600 million yuan, down 65.438+03% year-on-year. Such achievements also seem to confirm the downturn in the property market this year. There are many reasons: for example, the credit policy is tightened, the threshold of mortgage is raised, the cost of buying a house by loan is increased, and the wait-and-see mood of buyers is stronger; Moreover, although the central bank asked banks to guarantee the demand for the first home loan in mid-May, it was difficult to land and the mortgage policy was still tight, which failed to stimulate the property market transaction.

Residential market

The pace of pushing is slow, and Huayang in the south of the city has a large inventory.

In the first half of the year, due to the shrinking market turnover, buyers' wait-and-see mood increased, and the tone of the housing market was to slow down supply and destocking. Whether in the main city or suburban counties, developers have slowed down the pace of pushing. The supply area of commercial housing in Chengdu decreased by more than 40% month-on-month and year-on-year, mainly due to destocking. According to Sharp's data, 20128,000 sets of commercial housing were sold in Chengdu in the first half of the year. The transaction area was119.73 million ㎡, down 8.7% from the previous month and 10.8% from the previous year, down 19.3% and 22.4% respectively. From the supply and marketing trend, in the first half of 20 14, the supply and marketing ratio in Chengdu was above 1. 1 in April, and below 1 in the other four months. The overall supply-marketing ratio is 0.7, and the market is in a state of destocking. In terms of plate competition, judging from the regional plate supply and marketing data provided by Ruili data, in terms of supply, the Yuan Wah-Zhanhua plate in High-tech Zone is a hot supply area in the south of the city, the transaction volume of Guanghua Avenue in the west of the city and the old town of Pixian County continues to increase, and the Chengbei 198 plate is the main supply area; At the same time, in terms of transaction volume, Shuangliu City and Yuan Wah-Zhanhua Plate are still the leading cities in the south of the city, Dafeng and Xindu Old Town are the hot spots in the north of the city, Guanghua Avenue Plate is the hot spot in the west of the city, and Sansheng Township and Sleeping Bed Plate are the hot spots in the east of the city. Therefore, in the first half of 20 14, the supply of suburban Shuangliu ranked first in Chengdu with1313000m2. It is worth noting that among the "hot areas for inventory filing", the areas with high inventory in the Greater Chengdu market are mainly Huayang Section and Yuan Wah-Zhanhua Plate of the South Extension Line, and the inventory of large plates in the east of the city is also around 8 million ㎡. From the perspective of product structure, it is worth noting that the turnover of 70-90 ㎡ products has the smallest decline, and the proportion of transactions has further expanded. According to the analysis of the real estate industry in Midtown, the release of the 90㎡ apartment purchase restriction policy stimulated the transaction of this type of products. From the perspective of product types, the transaction volume of small-sized products just needed by the top management was relatively less affected by the depressed market, and the sales proportion increased; The transaction volume of improved large-sized units dropped more, and the proportion of sales decreased.

Commercial market

Commercial projects expanded outward, and new capital jumped to the top.

Chengdu IFC IFS, Wenjiang Ito, Sunshine Industrial, Xiong Fei Center, China Railway Xicheng, Suning Plaza and Shi Hao Plaza. In the first half of 20 14, seven large-scale complex projects opened in Chengdu, which brought a lot of commercial supply and further intensified the competition in the commercial market. In the case of huge stock and depressed market, the new supply of commercial properties naturally decreased significantly, down 49.5 1% year-on-year, with the largest decline in the new supply in the outer suburbs, down 77% year-on-year. It can be seen that in the case of market downturn, the suburban counties with weak commercial facilities are the most affected. In the layout of the project, the commercial property shows an obvious outward expansion trend, which is gradually reduced by the restrictions of the ring area, and the third ring road-ring city has the largest increase. Judging from the new supply of commercial properties in various regions, in the first half of 20 14, the new commercial properties in the main city were concentrated within the Third Ring Road, which was also the region with the largest increase in the proportion of new properties. In terms of product form, LOFT has always been a commercial product that has attracted much attention. From the data analysis, the new products and transactions in Chengdu LOFT market dropped sharply in the first half of the year, and the overall supply-demand ratio was 0.6 1, which eased the pressure of destocking. At present, the accumulated inventory in the market has reached 558,000 ㎡, with the average monthly turnover since 20 13, and it will take 24 months for the future turnover. From the administrative point of view, the volume of Chengdu LOFT market and high-tech zone LOFT in the first half of 20 14 is far ahead, and the inventory has decreased, but the volume is still huge. The competition in this region will further intensify in the battlefield of the main city, and commercial properties will continue. Judging from the new supply of commercial properties in various places, due to the southward inclination of government planning, large-scale complexes gather in the south of the city. In the first half of 20 14, the new supply of commercial properties in the main urban area mainly came from the south of the city, accounting for174,000 ㎡, accounting for 47% of the total supply. Commercial property transactions are mainly concentrated in high-tech zones and new capitals. Judging from the transaction volume of commercial properties in each administrative region, in the first half of 20 14, the transaction volume of high-tech zones in the main city ranked first, with the transaction area of1kloc-0/6000m2, accounting for 13.48% of the total transaction volume, followed by chenghua district; Xindu benefited from the favorable plan of "Northern Reform", and its transaction volume continued to rank first in the city, reaching 1 1. 1.8 million ㎡, accounting for 14.84% of the total transaction volume. This edition of the manuscript was written by Li Xiong, a reporter from Huaxi Daily.

The land market is uneven in heat and cold, and the real estate rookie takes the land fiercely.

In the first half of 20 14, the inflection point of the land market was announced. The continuous tightening of the capital chain and the decline in transaction volume have made housing enterprises tend to be conservative in taking the landlord's tone. The cautious attitude is reflected in the data. In the first half of 20 14, the supply, transaction volume and floor price of real estate land all declined, and the land market as a whole showed an uneven state of hot and cold, and high-priced land kings still appeared. At the same time, auctions occur frequently, and the regional market differentiation is obvious. However, the faces of some real estate enterprises still left a deep impression on people in the land market. For example, the radical performances of real estate rookies Luneng and New Ou Peng have brought confidence to the property market and added some bright spots to the second half of the year.

The supply of suburban land is first of all double-flow.

According to Ruili data, the land supply in Chengdu in the first half of 20 14 was 6,777.36 mu, a slight decrease, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. * * * 9 1 clinch a deal, a year-on-year decrease of 29 cases. In the first half of the year, the land was auctioned 1390 mu, and the total transaction volume decreased significantly, down 26.07% year-on-year. The transaction area was 5357.52 mu, a year-on-year decrease of 190 1.85 mu, a year-on-year decrease of 26%. The premium rate of residential land in Chengdu reached 36.4%, down by 5 percentage points. The premium rate of residential land in the outer suburbs decreased the most, which was 15.44%. In terms of land supply, the suburbs still become the main force of land transfer in Chengdu, accounting for 45.8% of the transactions, of which Shuangliu area is the hot spot of supply and marketing in the first half of the year, with a supply of 3046 mu and a transaction volume of 1465 mu. The proportion of land transactions in the main urban area increased by 5.2%. Jinjiang District and chenghua district are located in the forefront of the main urban area, and the suburbs are in the first place for land supply, but the auction rate is 44%. Qingyang district takes the lead with the average floor price of 6 105 yuan/m 2; The floor price of Wenjiang and Shuangliu in suburban counties is the highest, reaching above 1.200 yuan/㎡, but the floor price of Shuangliu is 44% lower than that of 20 13. Data analysis shows that with the maturity of regional commercial facilities and the further release of product market demand, Shuangliu became the key land acquisition area for Chengdu developers in the first half of the year.

Sichuan developers are expanding rapidly.

In the first half of 20 14, local developers in Sichuan accelerated the pace of expansion in Chengdu, and took more active land acquisition, especially local real estate enterprises such as Lanrun and Shi Sheng Huang Chao. According to industry analysts, developers who started in secondary cities in Sichuan, such as Lanrun, Territorial, Ganges and Bangtai, have been very active in recent years, frequently taking land and taking many rounds of shots, surpassing local real estate enterprises in Chengdu. The most important reason is that when foreign developers entered Chengdu to occupy the market on a large scale, many local developers in Chengdu withdrew from the mainstream market due to lack of funds, while developers in secondary cities were completing their original accumulation at this stage. With sufficient funds and secondary city projects as the backing, these housing enterprises began to expand in Chengdu, so their performance in the land market was very eye-catching. Luneng and New Ou Peng are very eye-catching in the ranking of 20 14 Chengdu's land acquisition area and amount. In the first half of the year, they took land more aggressively, and the action of swallowing land with heavy money injected a shot in the arm into the depressed market. In addition, in the transaction area list, Xinglu Real Estate took 407 mu of land, ranking first, Tianfu New District Investment Group and Wanda Real Estate took 278 mu and 258 mu of land, ranking second and third respectively; Ranked by the amount, Evergrande ranked first with a total land acquisition amount of 2914 million yuan. Luneng and New Ou Peng ranked second and third with a total land acquisition of 2.589 billion yuan and 65.438+83.9 billion yuan respectively. In the low-price ranking of real estate, Huixin Rongtong ranked first with the floor price of 10280 yuan /m2, Yibin Luneng ranked second with the unit price of 9350 yuan /m2, and won the plot of Huaishudian in Tiaode River with 2.589 billion yuan, winning the land king of total price. However, last year, Blu-ray, Greenland, China Railway Construction, Poly and other housing companies actively took land. Because of the abundant land reserve, they got less land in the first half of the year. The performance of these traditional buyers in the second half of the year is expected.

Regional competition is fierce, and Chenghua stock ranks first.

Ruili data shows that the land stock in Chengdu is growing faster than that in 20 13 years, up by 28.3%, of which the commercial land stock has more than doubled. The areas with the largest land stock in the main urban area are concentrated in chenghua district and jinniu district. Benefiting from the "northern reform" plan, the old city has been transformed and reorganized the most land, becoming the main land supply in the main city. Among them, chenghua district ranks first in the main urban area with the total stock of 1283.39 mu. Regionally, the transformation of residential stock land in the main urban area is the most ideal, with half of the stock transformation in the first half of the year. The land stock of Shuangliu in the suburbs is the largest, with 3 1, 3 1.37 mu. The stock of residential and commercial land ranks first. The real estate market in the outer suburbs is greatly affected by the market downturn, and the land stock is increasing rapidly. The total land stock in the outer suburbs of Chengdu is the largest, reaching 12296.57 mu, exceeding that in the suburbs. Due to the poor anti-risk ability of the outer suburb market, it is extremely difficult to de-regionalize in the future. At present, the overall market is still in a downturn, and the development of Chengdu real estate market has a trend of marching from the suburbs to the main city, and the stock of residential land in the main city has decreased by more than 50%. As the regional land stock is too large, there are many land auctions in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the market competition in this region will be very fierce in the future. The chemical removal rate of high-risk plates is "red light". These areas are worrying.

According to the analysis of the supply, sales and inventory data of Chengdu real estate market in the first half of 20 14 provided by Ruili data, the following sectors are worrying about their chemical removal ability and become high-risk areas for sales. Hong Guang plate Hong Guang plate has been relatively deserted among the major plates in Chengdu property market. In the statistics of the first half of 20 14, the new supply here was 53,295.03 square meters, and the transaction record was 40,269.95 square meters, while the stock actually reached 127 138.89 square meters. This has clearly reflected that the plate's ability to remove chemicals is quite weak, the supporting facilities can't keep up, and the low heat of the plate has caused the dilemma that the housing is difficult to sell. Yongning plate added 40572. 1 m2 in the first half of the year, and the sales record was only 229 12.76 m2. At present, the stock is as high as 129776.56 square meters. This data also makes people worry about the chemical conversion rate of this plate. Villa is the main product of this plate. Due to the decline of the overall villa market, the sales in this region are facing difficulties. In 20 14, the Huafu Plate 1 * * 17 project was on sale. According to the sales target set at the beginning of the year, the total sales amount of the projects on sale in Huafu plate this year is about126.5 billion yuan. According to the average filing price of Washington 6 1 3 in 20129 yuan /m2, if the real estate enterprises in the sector want to complete the annual sales task of 20 141265 million yuan, the filing sales area of the Washington sector must increase by nearly 250% in1year. However, putting down astronomical figures, the plate has to face the reality of "skinny". At present, there is a serious lack of support, lack of popularity and rampant marketing. How to take the volume has become a difficult problem for many developers.