What are the conditions and reasons of the primary and secondary real estate markets in Beijing?

The primary market of real estate, also known as the primary market of land, is a market for transferring land use rights, that is, the state expropriates urban state-owned land or rural collective land through its designated government departments as state-owned land and then transfers it to users. The transferred land can be uncultivated land or cultivated land that has been developed and realized "seven connections and one leveling". The real estate level is a market monopolized by the state.

The situation of Beijing's primary real estate market

Beijing, which is about to become the first city in China to introduce the bidding method for primary land development, can be said to be the city with the highest enthusiasm for primary land development enterprises.

At present, the bidding policy for the first-level land development in Beijing has been approved by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources. An insider of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources told the reporter: "The document is being submitted to the main leaders of Beijing for approval." . "If this policy is officially introduced, it will be the first such regulation in China." She explained that although this document is only a departmental regulation, it must be reviewed by the main person in charge of the Beijing Municipal People's Government before it is promulgated and implemented. This mainly considers the sensitivity and creativity of the content.

If there is no change, this policy will be introduced soon. The person in charge said.

Get ready for

The so-called first-level land development refers to the land development behavior that the government organizes land acquisition compensation, demolition and resettlement, land leveling, land use planning and design, ground and underground municipal infrastructure and social public facilities construction according to the requirements of urban planning, urban functional orientation and economic development, and meets the land transfer standards on schedule. The first-level development right will determine the development enterprise through bidding.

In the past, the first-level land development in Beijing, like other cities, was mainly done by the government. Both the first-level land development after the conversion of agricultural land and the development of state-owned land into cultivated land were done by the competent government departments.

With the acceleration of land marketization in China, the first-level development of land in many cities has also changed. Qu Weidong, an associate professor in the Department of Land Management of Renmin University of China, said that the first-level land development monopolized by government departments has become three situations: First, it is still dominated by local governments, which still exists in many small and medium-sized cities with low marketization; Second, the land reserve institutions of state-owned enterprises or institutions do, and the government and enterprises or reserve institutions have land revenue sharing, such as Shanghai and Hangzhou; Third, the government entrusts enterprises to do it, and the government is responsible for management and supervision.

In recent years, the pilot of marketization of primary land development in Beijing has made rapid progress. The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources told the reporter that from the perspective of development mode, the first-level development of land in Beijing is mainly the latter two types: Beijing Land Consolidation and Reserve Center, as a direct institution of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources, does some first-level development of land; In addition, more and more development enterprises are gradually participating in the first-level land development, which has become a market trend. In this process, the government departments and enterprises involved in the first-level land development have accumulated some experiences and achievements, which is also the background of Beijing's bidding policy for the first-level land development.

Judging from the nature of Beijing's first-class land development projects, there are two situations in Beijing's current first-class land development projects: first, the projects that failed to pass the customs after "8.3 1" in 2004, according to the government documents at that time, these lands were still first-class land development by the original project owners, and after the development was mature, they entered the Beijing Land Consolidation and Reserve Center for public sale, and the original project owners could participate in the competition; The second is the land level agreement signed by the district and county governments and development enterprises. "If there is no big difference between the agreement signed by the district and county governments and the development enterprises and the forthcoming policies of the Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources, these development enterprises will continue to carry out these land-level development projects." The relevant person in charge said.

"Marketization of primary land development will be the direction of development," said the main person in charge of Beijing Land Consolidation and Reserve Center. "In the future, the government will control two aspects: one is which land can enter the primary market for development, and the other is which land has been developed and can enter the trading market. The Beijing Land Consolidation Reserve Center is more representative of the government's management and supervision role. "

At the same time, she also stressed that at present, the first-level development of two types of land is not suitable for enterprises to enter the market: first, the first-level land development projects designated by the government, such as subway lines, government key land use projects, new town development, and urban village reconstruction projects. These projects are sensitive to land or society, or of great significance, and will still be operated by government departments or designated by large state-owned development enterprises for a period of time; Second, the first-level development of land owned by some state-owned enterprises is actually done by enterprises themselves.

The test has just begun.

For development enterprises, participating in the first-level land development is not only profitable, but also a way for enterprises to take land in a curve. A number of business leaders said this in an interview with reporters.

"Now many development companies are aiming at the first-level land development." Fan, the executive deputy general manager of Beijing Sunshine 100 Real Estate Development Company, told the reporter that although the land will still be taken to the secondary market for normal bidding, auction and hanging after the completion of the primary development, the developers are quite clear about all aspects of the land, especially the land cost accounting.

After the implementation of the bidding, auction and hanging system, the primary and secondary development markets of land are expected to be truly independent, and the possibility of realizing primary and secondary linkage through primary development is greatly reduced. It can be said that land marketization is unstoppable, but it does not mean that it will be achieved overnight. When development enterprises actively participate and government departments actively explore, experts and entrepreneurs also clearly see its disadvantages.

Fan said that to make people realize the importance and necessity of marketization of primary land development, the change of concept is crucial. "This is not a simple preaching question, but a very urgent matter." Fan believes that the rhythm, price and success or failure of the first-level land development market play a crucial and decisive role in land transfer. "The concept can't keep up. Many things in the marketization of first-class land development can only stay on the surface, and black-box operation cannot be fundamentally eliminated."

In the eyes of Qu Weidong, things are far from simple. "First of all, the first-level land development is not a simple process, and it may also involve social issues such as farmland conversion and demolition compensation; Secondly, the first-level development also involves issues such as land function planning and coordinated regional development, and is not a simple engineering concept. "

Qu Weidong has always stressed that the first-level land development should be a systematic project, and this issue should be treated comprehensively. "The return on investment in affordable housing is 3%, and the return on primary land development is 8%. Therefore, it should be a very scientific thing to formulate the profit margin of development enterprises. " He even suggested that development enterprises can be explicitly rewarded to participate in primary development through land supply.

Real estate secondary market

The secondary market of real estate is the market where land users sell and rent new real estate after development and construction. That is, it generally refers to the market formed when commercial housing enters the circulation field for the first time. The secondary market of real estate also includes the secondary market of land, that is, the market where land users will reach the required transferable land and enter the circulation field for trading.

Beijing real estate secondary market situation

It's been a month since the New Deal of nine ministries and commissions was introduced. To use an exaggerated metaphor, this hot and rainy summer is like a cold winter for the second-hand housing market. In the throes of "collecting 5.5% transaction tax within five years", the second-hand housing market suffered the bad news that Yizhuang took the lead in collecting 20% personal income tax on individual housing sales. The newly booming second-hand housing market has been hit hard. The momentum of falling transaction volume, listing volume and consulting volume has not only cooled down the second-hand housing market again, but some brokerage companies have been unable to resist the strength of the New Deal (see photo) and have shrunk their stores to varying degrees or simply.

It can be said that the second-hand housing market in Beijing was once again involved in the ice age after last year's "6. 1".

5.5% business tax and 20% individual tax are easily confused.

Who will be affected by the 5.5% five-year business tax?

The New Deal stipulates that for those who have purchased houses for less than five years, business tax will be levied in full according to the proceeds from the sale of houses. What impact has this had on the market?

2 1 century real estate experts said that the impact of business tax on the market can basically be divided into three echelons: in the low-end market, because most of the houses are built earlier, the construction life even exceeds 10 years, which is basically unaffected by the five-year business tax, and the transaction volume and price have not changed significantly; The main housing in the mid-market is the second new house in five years, which is the object of the New Deal, so the supply and price of the mid-market have changed to varying degrees; The high-end market performed well, especially the apartments with mature lots continued to rise steadily, while the price of villas increased greatly.

20% tax has been "rotten eggs" by many parties.

It is reported that Yizhuang has started to levy 20% personal income tax on individuals selling houses, which caused an uproar in the second-hand market.

Last year, the detailed rules of seven ministries and commissions were just issued, and June 1 became the starting point for paying business tax on second-hand housing transactions within two years. Beijing immediately began to levy personal income tax on second-hand housing transactions in Chaoyang, Haidian and other districts, and the market transaction volume fell. In June, the transaction volume decreased by 27% compared with that in May, and the transaction volume of second-hand commercial housing shrank by 3 1%. This incident was dubbed by the industry as ". However, the compulsory tax collection was ultimately anticlimactic. After two weeks of implementation, it was changed to self-declaration, and the trial of this policy in Hangzhou, Nanjing and Qingdao also went away.

Hua Guoqiang, general manager of 10 million real estate agents, believes that "the second-hand housing tax collection policy has never been effectively implemented for various reasons in the past. Last year's compulsory expropriation was finally abandoned because of strong market opposition. It is impossible to collect taxes in Yizhuang this time. " Mr. Lin, who is going to sell a townhouse in Yizhuang, said: "As a seller, I definitely don't want to reduce my income because of individual tax, business tax and other factors, so I can only transfer the loss by raising the selling price, but I don't understand why Yizhuang has to impose a separate tax, which is unfair." The secondary market is in the growth stage and is more sensitive to policies than new houses. Statistics from beautiful homeland show that since the middle and late June, the number of property transfer and tax exemption procedures for several days in a row is 2-3 times that of weekdays. Both parties to the transaction said that they had heard the news of compulsory tax collection and hoped to go through the transfer procedures as soon as possible to avoid the increase in transaction costs.

Since the implementation of business tax has increased the seller's cost, the second-hand market has generally shown wait-and-see signs since June.

Housing in the second-hand market plummeted.

The biggest impact of the New Deal on the second-hand market may be to curb the amount of housing. It should be said that from the original intention of this policy to extend the business tax collection period from 2 years to 5 years, the main purpose is to curb demand by reducing the income of real estate investment, thus alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand; But this is based on the premise that there is only an incremental housing (or commercial housing) market in the real estate market, because this policy will not affect the supply of real estate. However, the current real estate situation in Beijing is that the second-hand housing market needs to be actively revitalized, with the focus on increasing the effective supply of second-hand housing; The extension of the business tax collection period will inevitably curb demand and hinder the supply of second-hand housing.

Jin, the marketing director of "Chain Home Real Estate", believes that the extension of the time limit for business tax collection has increased the cost of some real estate sellers, reduced the willingness to sell, and led to a decrease in housing transaction volume; Especially in the current second-hand housing market in Beijing, about 50% of the houses in stock are within five years, of which 80% are second-hand commercial houses within five years, accounting for a considerable proportion. With the increase of the selling cost and the decrease of the selling intention of this part of the owners, the decrease of this part of the housing will cause a fatal blow to the turnover of the whole second-hand housing market, and the turnover will drop seriously.

According to the statistics of beautiful homeland, since June, the number of listed houses has been decreasing at an average rate of 15% per week, and the number of customers' inquiries about policies and market trends has increased significantly, making it dignified to wait and see with money. In June, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market dropped sharply, down nearly 40% from the previous month.

There was a slight correction in the fourth week.

Although all kinds of data generally show the downturn of the second-hand market, there are gratifying signs in the data of beautiful homeland: from the weekly statistics, we can see that the secondary market has not got rid of the influence of policies, but from the monitoring data in the fourth week of June, the market has begun to loosen and there are signs of slow recovery. Since the fourth week, the housing quantity, customer quantity and transaction volume of second-hand houses have rebounded to varying degrees, although the rebound rate is not obvious, and it is concentrated in 1% ~ 4%. However, it is gratifying that consumers are more calm in the face of this sudden market change than the market downturn caused by the introduction of the New Deal by seven ministries and commissions in the same period last year. Compared with the same period of last year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses increased slightly in June this year, mainly because people's sensitivity to policies decreased, rigid demand still dominated the market, and investment and consumption accounted for a relatively small proportion. Most home buyers still have demand potential for second-hand houses.

Hot emerging areas have been hit hard.

For this policy, the second-hand housing market in different regions has different subtle changes. The affected areas are mainly emerging hot spots of commercial housing transactions, such as Wangjing, Wanliu and Shuangjing. Most of the second-hand houses in these areas are within the scope of business tax collection, and most homeowners hold a wait-and-see attitude or sublet them for sale to avoid reducing their income.

From the analysis of the current transaction data of real estate in 2 1 century, the number of people in the wait-and-see period in hot areas has increased, and the overall housing volume has decreased by about 30%. Another market phenomenon is that in addition to waiting or turning to the rental market, some mid-range buyers have turned their attention from second-hand to new properties, especially those outside the Fourth Ring Road.

There are fewer houses in Shuangjing area.

The transaction price rose by 265,438+Ms. Liu (see photo), the regional owner of the real estate CBD in the 20th century, said that according to the transaction volume in the first half of June, compared with April, the transaction volume decreased by about 20%, the housing volume decreased by about 20%, and the demand did not change significantly. This is because in the second-hand housing transactions in R&F city, 70% of customers pay in one lump sum, indicating that there are many people who need to live in their own homes, so the demand has not changed much since the New Deal. Generally speaking, prices are still rising steadily. After the New Deal, the average house transaction price rose from 1 1000 yuan/square meter in April to 12000 yuan/square meter. This confirms the view that "second-hand housing transactions in mature hot spots will continue to rise" predicted by real estate experts in 2 1 century.

Both buyers and sellers in Wangjing Asian Games Village declined.

In Wangjing area, because the second-hand houses in Wangjing are mostly mid-range properties, which are generally 1998-2000, the supply is sufficient, which is greatly affected by the five-year new property policy. 2 1 Century Mr. Cao, manager of Wangjing Lantian New Town, a real estate, said: After "6. 1 New Deal", the total number of sellers decreased by 40% and the number of buyers decreased by 20%. Most of these people entered the rental market from buying and selling.

Beijing Asian Games Village, as a hot spot of Olympic economy, is 10 years old or older. However, due to frequent transactions, the title certificate of the transaction subject is mostly collected within five years. Take the overseas Chinese apartment as an example, more than 50% of the properties are traded many times, so the five-year business tax has also had an impact on the region. According to Ms. Liu, business manager of 2 1 century real estate Beijing Tiandinglong franchise store, the overall consignment volume of the store decreased by 50% and the number of buyers decreased by 70%.

The performance of old residential areas is stable.

In Anzhen, Tuanjiehu, Xueyuan Road, Beitaipingzhuang and other traditional trading hotspots where public houses have been purchased for more than five years and the secondary market is relatively mature, the market performance is relatively stable. With good living facilities and commercial facilities, these areas are still the hot spots of consumer demand, and the transaction volume has only declined slightly, which is mainly related to the impact of policies on people's psychological expectations.

Most of the second-hand housing transactions after the "New Deal" are transferred by the buyers, which is similar to the market after the "New Deal" last year. At present, the transaction price of second-hand houses has increased by about 6%. Among them, the phenomenon of price increase is not only reflected in the field of secondary new houses within the scope of business tax collection, but also in the price of houses that do not fall within the scope of business tax collection, which is mainly due to the homeowner's psychology of following the trend and comparing with others. Therefore, this policy has promoted the overall rise of second-hand housing prices in disguise to a certain extent.

Four types of real estate highlight the purchase value

Low-cost housing in urban areas: strong toughness.

An unchangeable rule of real estate investment is "lots", and the advantages and disadvantages of lots determine the rising space of real estate value or the resilience of real estate. It should be said that the real estate in Beijing's Third Ring Road has the scarcity of real estate investment lots, especially the scarcity of low-priced real estate with a total price of less than 400,000. Although the nine ministries and commissions stipulate that the proportion of new commercial residential buildings with a construction area of less than 90 square meters should not be less than 70%, it means that the supply of small and medium-sized houses will increase in the future; The supply of new commercial housing is mostly concentrated outside the Fifth Ring Road, which will not form a strong substitute with the demand for small-sized housing in urban areas. Most importantly, with the support of the city commercial center, the small-sized housing rental market in the Third Ring Road will be active for a long time.

A sharp turn: investment opportunities should not be missed.

A sharp turn house refers to a house that the owner needs to sell in a short time for some special reason. According to a recent survey of second-hand housing consumers by Chain Home Real Estate, 9% of the owners sell their properties in order to urgently need money, especially in view of the current tight real estate market environment, which means that there are a large number of rapidly changing houses for investors to invest in. "Chain Real Estate" believes that if there are owners who are eager to sell their properties, don't miss the opportunity. We should try our best to seize the trading opportunity at the first time, and the investment opportunity of the sharp turn house should not be missed. Because in general, due to the owners' eagerness for financing, considering the time and opportunity cost of financing and the difficulty of realizing it, they have to discount the value of their own property, so the price of the sharp turn house is lower than the market price. It can be said that the moment when investors buy a house with a sharp turn is the moment when investors begin to make profits.

Auction house: sell when it is time to sell.

At present, auction houses are on the rise. At present, the bank is carrying out enterprise reform, one of which is to dispose of and revitalize bad credit assets as soon as possible. In order to speed up the clean-up, banks auctioned off some mortgaged properties belonging to non-performing loans. Judging from the market supply of auction houses, there are still many auction houses for investors to choose from. Moreover, the second-hand mortgage business is involved in the field of mortgage real estate auction, and ordinary citizens with mortgage conditions can apply for this business, which makes more people participate in real estate auction and reduces the threshold and cost of investing in auction houses. The biggest advantage of buying a second-hand house by auction is that investors can set their own prices, which means that investors can take the initiative in their own investment costs and investment decisions, which is the basis for successful investment. Usually, because banks are eager to clean up non-performing assets and want to realize collateral as soon as possible to eliminate liquidity risk, the price of second-hand real estate obtained through auction is about 10% lower than the market price. At present, the auction market competition is not very fierce, which is beneficial to home buyers. Moreover, because the second-hand mortgage business has just begun to participate in the field of mortgage real estate auction, cash payment is still the mainstream, which is a good opportunity for investors with surplus cash on hand.

Eye-catching choice of clearing room

The liquidation room is the last few suites left after the building is sold, giving people an intuitive feeling of "choosing the last". Generally speaking, the rest are not good, and developers don't sell them. It is definitely unprofitable to enter the secondary market as a second-hand house. However, the opposite is true. As long as you carefully look at and choose from the perspective of investment, the clearing room is still of great investment value. First of all, the house has been built, and there is no risk of late delivery and unfinished business. Moreover, this kind of transaction is generally represented by brokerage companies, which has a basic guarantee for the safety of property rights and transaction funds, and avoids the greatest risk for property buyers; Secondly, the price of the liquidation house has basically fallen back to reality, and the inflated price caused by the vigorous speculation in the early stage of opening sales no longer exists. After the price bubble is squeezed out, buying at this time can not only reduce the total amount of investment funds, but also avoid the embarrassment of "depreciating just after buying" and gain a huge space for real estate appreciation. Moreover, some clearing houses have superior locations, so it should not be a problem to rent or sell them in the future. In fact, for investors who want to rent a house, as long as the community in the area where the house is located is mature and the living atmosphere is strong, investors can attract most tenants by investing a certain amount of money in simple decoration, but the quality and taste of the house are not necessarily impeccable, but it is passable.

The new deal trend brings alternative vitality.

In fact, the impact of the "New Deal" on the second-hand market is still more opportunities than pressures in the long run. At the just-concluded "Innovation and Development Forum of Real Estate Service Industry" held by Hangzhou Region of 2 1 Century Real Estate for the third anniversary celebration, Zhao Hangsheng, Chairman of Hangzhou Region and Director of Real Estate Research Center of Zhejiang University, said: 5.5% of the five-year business tax will be digested and accepted by the market within a period of time, and the rigid market demand cannot be suppressed, so the market prospect is still good. In addition, the "New Deal" controls 70% of the total 90 square meters of first-hand houses, which will inevitably lead to the improvement of the second-hand housing market in terms of large-sized and high-quality housing. Zhao Hangsheng also said with his own experience that after the baptism of the property market in the Yangtze River Delta in 2005, Hangzhou still grew up and became a leading real estate enterprise in the local market, so he was optimistic about the second-hand market as a whole.

At the forum that day, Gu Yunchang, vice president of the Real Estate Association, also made it clear: "The China market is a seller's market, that is, there is strong demand. I once said that the real estate market in China is an irresistible demand, with both value-added demand and investment demand. " In such a huge market, "the real estate service industry is closely related to the healthy development of the real estate industry. The more mature the market economy is, the more developed the real estate service industry is, and the road to sustainable development through innovation will surely be the broad road for the real estate service industry. " Beautiful homeland, on the other hand, believes that with the maturity of the market, the primary and secondary linkages are more active, and the changes of both sides will inevitably lead to the overall changes of the market. Because with the introduction of "the proportion of housing area with a building area of less than 90 square meters must reach more than 70% of the total development and construction area", the supply structure of the new housing market will change greatly, and the attention angle of buyers with different needs will also change to a certain extent. Buyers who originally paid attention to small apartments in the second-hand housing market hope to have a large number of new houses of 90 square meters in the future. However, compared with the second-hand houses of the same quality, small-sized houses mean higher purchase cost, higher total price and higher living density. Moreover, most of the new houses are located in the marginal areas far away from the city center, and there are not many new houses that can really meet the buyers with limited economic ability.

Therefore, beautiful homeland predicts that a considerable number of buyers will return to the second-hand housing market with its superior geographical location, perfect community construction and relatively low transaction costs. With the decrease of the supply of large-sized housing in the future, the transaction ratio and transaction price of the second-hand housing market above 90 square meters to 120 square meters will show room for growth in the future. To sum up, people in beautiful homeland predict that although some property buyers will hold money to buy new houses in the short term, the final transaction will still be reflected in the second-hand housing market.

After the policy adjustment, both buyers and sellers are in a state of semi-consciousness and semi-hesitation, and it takes time to be rational. At this time, correct macro guidance is also needed. The original intention and purpose of the New Deal is to crack down on investors and stabilize housing prices. Short-term fluctuations cannot represent a bleak prospect. The recovery of the real market and the normal development trend prove that the second-hand housing market will not sink, but will soon shoulder the burden of real estate market transactions and become a scientific choice for consumers to buy their own homes step by step.