Is Tesla worth buying?

If all goes well, Tesla is worth buying.

The mark has dropped by 23%.

The price of bare car is 299,050 yuan, exempt from purchase tax of 26,465 yuan, and pay a little license fee, vehicle and vessel use tax and insurance premium. The estimated price is within 365,438+0 million. Although it is a bit far from Musk's claim that "it will be about one-third lower than the price of imported cars", this price is indeed quite competitive.

Competitiveness depends first on who you compare with.

In 20 18, the median per capita disposable income of China residents was 24,000 yuan, and that of urban residents was 36,000 yuan. In 20 18, the median per capita income in the United States was $33,000, which was almost RMB 228,000 according to the latest exchange rate. The price of Model3 in the United States is $39,990, less than 290,000 RMB, which is basically the same as the price of domestic Tesla.

Take BMW 3 Series as an example, its starting price is similar to that of domestic Tesla. The latter must pay at least 340,000 yuan. In Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu, the purchase of Tesla can also enjoy the discount of directly licensing new energy vehicles without bidding, saving 65,438+0.3 million to 89,000 yuan.

In this way, Tesla is still cost-effective.

Secondly, whether it is cost-effective depends on the cost of use.

Taking driving 65,438+10,000 kilometers as an example, we make a simple calculation of the use cost of Tesla Model3 and BMW 3 Series.

According to the official introduction of Tesla Model 3, if a household charging pile is used, it will cost 7.5 yuan electricity every 100 km. If you use Tesla's self-built "super charging pile", you need 36 yuan every 100 km. So the total cost of 654.38 million kilometers is between 7500 and 36000 yuan. Calculate the maintenance cost again. Tesla is currently carrying out a 4-8 year warranty for the whole vehicle, and the maintenance is on demand. According to the estimation of some car owners, the maintenance cost per 20,000 kilometers is 3,000 yuan, and the total maintenance cost is about 6.5438+5,000 yuan. The total amount shall not exceed 5 1 1,000 yuan.

If the fuel consumption of a BMW 3 Series is 10L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers is 8 1 yuan according to the current Shanghai oil price of 8. 1 yuan. Assuming that the oil price will remain stable in the next five years, the total cost of 65438+ 10,000 kilometers will be 865438+ 10,000 yuan. The estimated maintenance cost of "Aika Auto" website is 2 1 1,000 yuan. Total102,000 yuan.

According to this idealized algorithm (regardless of maintenance or replacement of parts, etc. ), the cost of using Tesla model3 is only half that of BMW 3 Series.

Of course, Tesla is not without its shortcomings. Because of battery life, electric cars depreciate quickly. On the second-hand car platform, a BMW 3 Series that has traveled 34,000 kilometers since 2065,438+2007 costs 228,000 yuan, which is about 60% of the new car price. The Tesla Model S, which also travels 30,000 kilometers in three years, sells for 390,000, which is only 50% of the price of new cars.

The head-on conflict between Tesla and ABB

In fact, the real concern about buying Tesla is not the cost of money: there should be a place to install charging piles in the community, the charging station should wait in line for several hours, long-distance travel should be carefully planned, the mileage in the cold winter in the north should be 20% off, and the battery warranty only guarantees 70% battery life. ...

Let's take a look at the comparison of sales of Model 3 and ABB competing models in China before the price reduction: the traffic insurance data shows that 20191-kloc-0/10,000 Model 3 vehicles were sold in China, and Audi A4, BMW 3 Series and mercedes benz c Class totaled 397,000 vehicles, with a sales ratio of 0.073. Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong have the highest proportions, which are 0.3 1, 0.24 and 0. 14 respectively, but they are still far below the average of the United States (10.5) and Europe (0.4).

Even if the car price has dropped to 300,000, consumers in Beishangguang may still think about "the same price, buy Tesla or buy Mercedes-Benz BMW?"

When Tesla drops to 250,000 yuan, at least for middle-class consumers in first-tier cities, the question may become: "Do you buy Tesla or a fuel car?"