Liu Luanxiong and his 76 Hermes.

Author

Author | Tao Yihang

Editor | Han

In the month since the beginning of 2023, Liu Luanxiong, a Hong Kong billionaire, has boarded two hot searches.

The first time is 65438+1October 3. On this day, Liu Luanxiong appeared in a 90-minute press conference. When talking about love, betrayal and money, he also clarified that he has nothing to do with his ex-girlfriend Lv Lijun at present. At the end of last year, the media photographed him and Lv Lijun "shopping", and there were rumors that Liu Luanxiong would meet for the second time.

Another hot search is 65438+1October 30th. On this day, it is reported that Liu Luanxiong will auction his 76 Hermes bags. This is not the first time that the Liu Luanxiong family has auctioned their collection. But the point is that everyone is familiar with the Hermes bags in this auction. Later, some media reported that they all belonged to Liu Luanxiong's ex-girlfriend Lv Lijun.

All this seems to have nothing to do with the name "stock market sniper" in Liu Luanxiong, just to attract people who eat melons to watch the secrets of the giants and stir up a pool of spring water in the luxury market. "The current situation in Liu Luanxiong should be said to be more subtle. The past investment activities have not been done. It is obviously difficult for people who have made too much money in the stock market and investment to calm down and do very hard work, so it remains to be seen how Liu Luanxiong will go next. " Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG in China, told the Financial Times.

Luxury games for fanatics.

This time, Liu Luanxiong, a Hong Kong tycoon, boarded a hot search with his Hermes bag.

654381October 30th, Liu Luanxiong cooperated with Sotheby's to open the first part of "Collection Way: Liu Luanxiong Treasured Handbags". In this auction, Liu Luanxiong will auction 77 top handbags, including 76 Hermes and 1 Chanel, with a total value of over160,000 Hong Kong dollars (about RMB13.77 million yuan), and the proceeds from the auction will be donated for charitable purposes.

Sotheby's official website shows that this auction is the largest single collector's handbag auction in Asian history. This series includes several Kelly bags and Birkin bags with different colors and sizes, all of which are important limited editions in the history of handbags in the past twenty years.

(Hermes bags with different valuations, source: Sotheby's official website)

It is worth mentioning that Liu Luanxiong is a die-hard fan of Hermes, with a collection of more than 65,438+0,000 bags. 65438 The auction of 76 animals scheduled for/kloc-0 from October 30th to February 9th is only a part of it. The second part will be held in July this year. On June 365438+1October 3 1 day, many people watched Liu Luanxiong's luxury show online, and at the same time, the discussion about luxury bags soared. Some netizens said: "I thought rich people threw away their bags. It turns out that they also deal with idleness, but people play with high-end idle fish. "

It is worth mentioning that in addition to Liu Luanxiong, some ordinary people are also considering the feasibility of using luxury goods for financial management. In recent years, with the strengthening of economic strength, people's cognition of luxury goods has changed from a term with a sense of distance to a commodity with high added value. Luxury goods are no longer exclusive to high-net-worth people, especially in the recent financial market volatility, many users have been gearing up to try to realize wealth appreciation by buying big-name bags.

They turned their attention to some brand-name bags with the function of maintaining and increasing value. Looking at the high price of luxury goods, some people even regret it because there is no layout in advance. "The yield of financial losses last year made me often regret not buying big-name bags at that time, and the price increase appropriately outperformed the decline of the fund." Recalling his investment experience, Xiao He sighed.

"Investment is better than buying a bag". On the social media platform, Li Ting also shared his experience: "I bought a LV bag for10.5 million, took it home for maintenance, and changed hands at the price of10.8 million three months later. The monthly yield is 6.6%. I can't think of what kind of wealth management products can achieve such a rate of return. " But not everyone is as lucky as Li Ting.

Xiao Chen, a bag lover, has repeatedly called on everyone to "buy bags rationally". "I buy bags every time my head is hot, but when I deal with idleness, I find that each bag will probably lose 2000-6000 yuan. Even the big names like Lu and Lu, the difference is only a little less loss. I hope that the second-hand reselling will increase the price, unless I am fortunate enough to buy a classic big explosion. "

Analyst Lu Yao confirmed this view. "Although some products show a trend of popularization, this is not the real attribute of luxury goods. Packages with value-added functions are often limited or individually tailored models. Because it is scarce and precious, it is its core. As for the usual luxury bags, because the core assets are weak, the ability to maintain value is very limited. "

In real life, it is not easy to buy a limited number of bags. Take Hermes as an example, if you want to put a limited edition bag in your pocket, you must first meet its distribution requirements (referring to the bundled sales of brands, users have to buy clothing, jewelry, shoes and other products, and only after reaching a certain consumption quota can they qualify for purchase). Such a set of down, probably need hundreds of thousands or even millions.

According to statistics, the proceeds from this Liu Luanxiong auction exceeded HK$ 6.5438+0.6 million, which is already sky-high in the eyes of ordinary people. But compared with his huge collection kingdom, these are just dwarfs.

The floating world tycoon loves investing.

Since the age of 27, Liu Luanxiong has been partial to collectibles, including works of art, furniture and red wine. , with an estimated total value of over HK$ 20 billion. For example, Gauguin's painting "Morning" in Tahiti was bought by Liu Luanxiong for a record price of $39.2 million. Behind Liu Luanxiong's huge collection value is the floating world tycoon's alternative investment view.

When Liu Luanxiong first bought collectibles, he didn't care. As long as they were good and beautiful, he was happy to buy them. But as time went on, he found that the value of these things was amazing. /kloc-a piece of porcelain bought from 0/10,000 to 2 million has risen to 40 million to 50 million in a few decades. "Office buildings can't go up so much!"

Liu Luanxiong's eyes are really vicious. For example, from 2003 to 20 13, the auction price of this pair of exquisite porcelain increased from 1576 thousand dollars to 4 197 thousand dollars. In ten years, the price has risen by more than $2 million. Because of this, Liu Luanxiong made no secret of his intention to use these collections as investment tools.

His estimated return on his investment in various artworks is: China porcelain is at least 100 times, Chinese painting 10-20 times and western painting is 5 times, which decreases with the length of investment. "Most of the appreciation is 20 to 65,438,000 times." However, in the past two or three years, Liu Luanxiong has frequently "given up love" and auctioned private collections of famous paintings, fine wines and fine porcelain. In 2020 alone, the harvest exceeded 654.38 billion yuan.

Although he loves collecting, he also loves investing. Liu Luanxiong, who has never received systematic investment education, is obviously an investor who likes to "find another way". Summarizing Liu Luanxiong's investment career for decades, Dennis Huang, co-founder of Xiezong Strategic Management Group, commented on the city as "low suction and high throw". This kind of play was not only used by Liu Luanxiong in collectibles, but also won him the title of "stock sniper" in his early days.

During the three years from 1985 to 1987, Liu Luanxiong successively challenged four well-known family businesses in Hong Kong-Nengda Technology, Chinese Home Purchase, China Gas and Hong Kong Hotel. The families behind these four listed companies are well connected. The courage to "dare to break out of the lion's den" made him a "fledgling" person with both fame and fortune.

For example, attacking Nengda Technology made a profit of HK$ 6.5 million, China Gas made a profit of HK$ 34 million for Liu Luanxiong, and Hong Kong hotels made a profit of HK$ 6.5438+36 million. However, with the exception of Chinese Real Estate and Zhonghua Entertainment Real Estate, which are still listed flagship companies, most other companies have been sold back to major shareholders by Liu Luanxiong at high prices. The benefits are so great that ordinary people can hardly imagine. The stock market is like this, so is real estate.

Although Liu Luanxiong led the company into the real estate market after 1986, such as jointly building Regent Garden in Beijing and Hilton Hotel in Beijing with Poly Group, due to the change of Liu Luanxiong's physical condition and some external reasons, China Real Estate gradually divorced from reality and turned from a real estate platform to real estate investment and securities investment.

The same formula, played by Liu Luanxiong. It was also during the downturn of the stock market that Liu Luanxiong bought many high-quality assets, such as Wanchai Computer City, Shanghai Qiaofeng and The one, the highest shopping mall in Hong Kong at that time. Many projects in Beijing and Shanghai "were bought when the land price was very low in more than ten or twenty years. The land for the Chengdu project was bought seven years ago, and the land alone rose four or five times." Liu Luanxiong once recalled.

(Source/vision china)

In this way, Liu Luanxiong not only escaped the financial storm, but also realized the soaring assets against the market. His net worth rose from 2 1 billion dollars before 2007 to 6.5 billion dollars in 20 1 year, and by 20 17 years, Liu Luanxiong's net worth became 155 billion dollars. Even when the market went down in 2022, his value on Forbes Hong Kong Rich List was still $654.38+03.7 billion, ranking sixth in Hong Kong.

For many years, it was not enough for Liu Luanxiong to maintain his huge wealth by investing in real estate and collectibles. He also bought shares of companies in crisis, which usually have high-quality assets. When the stock value is lower than the share of the property value, it can be profitable through privatization. After the successful privatization, the property was sold and the money recovered was much higher than the cost of privatization. Dennis Huang told the Financial Times that Liu Luanxiong not only likes to privatize the company, but the company he wants to privatize will also own a lot of real estate.

Take Bai, a financial consultant at 65438-0998 as an example. Bought 64.29% of the shares of Guangzhong from bankrupt white hands at a very low price. In June, 2004, 165438+ 10, when the stock market was depressed, China home buyers and shareholders would be privatized at the price of 1.25 yuan per share. "Guangshengxing has many properties, including high-quality assets such as Guangshengxing Building." Dennis Huang was recalled to the city.

However, as a major listed company and investment platform in Liu Luanxiong, the road to privatization of China Real Estate is not smooth.

A century-old shop with ups and downs

His wealth is still rich, but his business is facing challenges.

Since 20 19, after the real estate assets were gradually divested from listed companies, the real estate business of China buyers has hardly increased, and their profits mainly depend on investment income. Most of their commercial real estate projects only have the right to manage and operate. Only Xiamen Mansion, Xingwei Center, Guangjian Trade Center, Hongtu Road 1 in Hong Kong, and Oriental Mansion and Hilton Hotel in Beijing have the right to control.

To make matters worse, China property buyers' investment in domestic stocks and bonds has also suffered from waterloo in recent years. Take Evergrande, which once allowed China home buyers to get a dividend of HK$ 65.438+RMB 95 million, as an example. Since 202 1, Evergrande has experienced a liquidity crisis and its share price has been falling all the way. China Real Estate has sold its Evergrande shares many times. At the end of the same year 1 1, Chinese real estate announced that if all the remaining shares of Evergrande were sold before the end of 20021,Chinese real estate's shareholding in Evergrande would lose more than 100 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Investing in real estate bonds also hurt Liu Luanxiong's heart. 202 1 semi-annual report shows that Chinese real estate holds 27 bonds, involving Evergrande Group, Caesar Group and COFCO Holdings. In the first half of this year, the bonds held by China property buyers brought an unrealized loss of HK$ 309 million.

After a series of setbacks, Chen Kaiyun (Gambi), the wife of Liu Luanxiong, the new helm of China Real Estate, also made great moves on 202 1, such as giving away employees' houses and shares to save the company, but this failed to reverse the performance of China Real Estate. In 20021year, when this old store was 99 years old, Gambi tried to return to the market through privatization, and the reasons for seeking delisting were: low stock trading circulation and continuous decline in performance.

When the stock price is cheap, retail investors may feel that it is cost-effective and actively buy it. But for a capital hunter like Liu Luanxiong, this is a godsend opportunity and the most vulnerable. With a small amount of money, we can absorb some China HOS shares in the market and then propose to buy back all the share capital. This leveraged buyout technology is Liu Luanxiong's best.

In the early years, 1989 and199/kloc-0, which actually controlled Chinese home ownership in Liu Luanxiong, proposed privatization twice. Behind every privatization proposal is the fact that Liu Luanxiong's bid is lower than the company's net asset value per share at that time. This is also the characteristic of Gambi when he controls Chinese home ownership.

(Source/vision china)

Take the privatization plan disclosed by China Real Estate in early 2002110/0 as an example. According to the plan, China Real Estate plans to buy back about 25% of the public shares in the open market at HK$ 4 per share, with a total consideration of HK$ 6,543.8+90.8 million. The repurchase price of this privatization scheme was slightly higher than the share price of China Real Estate at that time, but it was nearly 70% lower than the net asset value of HK$ 65,438+02.99 at the end of June.

Wind data shows that as of June 28th, 2023, the suspected actual controllers of 65,438+Chinese home ownership are Chen Kaiyun, Liu Zhongxue (son) and Liu Xiuhua (daughter). From the perspective of ownership structure, the largest controlling shareholder of China real estate is Sunshine Co., Ltd., a trust fund controlled by Chen Kaiyun.

According to Caixin, the stocks of China property buyers are all registered in the names of minor children in Liu Luanxiong, and Chen Kaiyun is the trustee of these children. If the privatization is completed, Solar Bright Limited will fully own the assets of China, and all the shares will be controlled by Chen Kaiyun. However, this time, most shareholders still don't buy it.

On 200211217, Chinese real estate held a planning meeting and an extraordinary shareholders' meeting to vote on the privatization proposal. Of the 74 shareholders present, only 10 was in favor of the plan and 64 were against it. This means that more than 80% of shareholders voted against it. "This is the best opportunity for privatization (poor performance and low valuation), but it is a pity that it was missed." Dennis Huang sighed.

Today, where should China property buyers go? "What we have to do in the future is passive investment. It will gradually sell its property, recover cash, and then distribute it to shareholders in the form of profit distribution. With the sale of enterprises and real estate, China buyers will increasingly become a cash-based company. " Dennis Huang's analysis of urban boundaries pointed out that.

The circulation of capital never stops because of a person or an enterprise, but Liu Luanxiong rarely speaks because of a person. At the 90-minute press conference on October 3rd, 65438/KLOC-0, Liu Luanxiong talked about money and affairs, not investment, nor his business. At this moment, Liu Luanxiong, who is over 70 years old, has only one wish, "Leave me alone, I want to live a quiet life now."

Now, on the occasion of China people's centenary birthday, although Liu Luanxiong once again boarded the hot search because of 76 Hermes bags, I'm afraid he will never return to those big days.

(Except Bai Wenxi and Dennis Huang, others are pseudonyms. )