The Matthew effect of net profit in the first half of the year was outstanding: the number of large housing enterprises increased and the number of small housing enterprises lost more.

Following the release of sales performance, various housing enterprises have successively released profit forecasts for the first half of 20 19. Wind data shows that as of July 30, 34 listed real estate enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have issued express reports, of which 14 are expected to achieve profit and loss, and 20 are expected to achieve profit growth; Among them, the growth rate of 15 housing enterprises is negative, and the growth rate of 19 housing enterprises is positive. According to the Beijing News reporter's observation, most housing enterprises with positive profits or growth rate are large and medium-sized housing enterprises. In the eyes of the industry, in the down cycle of real estate, the Matthew effect of the real estate industry is becoming more and more obvious, and the total profits of large and medium-sized housing enterprises are getting higher and higher.

The overall profit growth rate of housing enterprises slowed down

At the same time, according to Kerui's statistics, as of July 15, among the 50 housing enterprises in the A-share and H-share real estate development sectors, 20 are expected to make profits and losses, and 7 are expected to see a year-on-year decline in net profit. 2 1 real estate enterprises expect profit growth, accounting for less than 50%.

Ke Rui believes that overall, compared with the high trend in the same period last year, the profit growth rate of housing enterprises has generally slowed down. On the one hand, the price limit in major cities has led to lower-than-expected sales revenue of housing enterprises; On the other hand, in the first half of 20 19, the market financing environment became tighter, and the survival pressure of real estate as a highly leveraged industry intensified.

But specific to various housing enterprises, the Matthew effect of the strong and the strong has become more and more prominent. Among the 34 listed real estate enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen that have disclosed their profit forecasts, Greenland Holdings, Poly Real Estate, Jinke, Joy City, First Capital, Taihe Group, Blu-ray Development and Financial Street are all large and medium-sized real estate enterprises.

In the profit forecast of 50 housing enterprises in the A-share and H-share real estate development sectors, 15 housing enterprises expect profit (excluding losses) to increase, of which 1 1 is the top 100 housing enterprises, and the profits and losses are basically small housing enterprises outside the top 200. In addition, the growth rate of net profit of large real estate enterprises such as Greenland and Jinke increased instead of decreased; However, under the impact of adjustment, the growth rate of net profit of most small and medium-sized housing enterprises dropped significantly.

Among them, Poly Real Estate achieved a total operating income of 765,438+065,438+060 million yuan in the first half of 2065, a year-on-year increase of 438+09.52%; Operating profit was 654.38+07.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%; The total profit was 654.38+07.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.55%; Due to the increase in the proportion of rights and interests of carried-over projects, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 654.38+0.0353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 596.5438+04%.

Greenland Holdings achieved a total operating income of 2010.60 billion yuan in the first half of 20 19, a year-on-year increase of 27.54%; The total profit was 654.38+0.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4654.38+0.72%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 8.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.67%. Greenland Holdings said that in the first half of this year, the carry-over income of the company's main real estate business increased steadily year-on-year, and the gross profit margin continued to increase; The intercity space station project is selling well against the market, and the proportion of new goods in first-and second-tier cities has steadily increased, and health technology residential products have fully landed.

In addition, in the first half of 2065438+2009, Jinke expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to increase to 2-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 200%-290%. For this profit growth, Jinke shares said that it was mainly due to the increase in the scale of house delivery and overall sales gross profit in this period.

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Sunac China's net profit in the first half of 20 19 increased by more than 45% year-on-year. In this regard, Sunac China said that it was mainly due to the increase in the delivery area of the company in the past six months compared with the same period last year.

The core net profit of China Aoyuan in the first half of 2065438+2009 is expected to increase by more than 50% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the total construction area of properties delivered by the company to buyers and the increase in the average selling price during the reporting period.

It can be seen that the main reason for the profit growth of large and medium-sized housing enterprises is the increase of delivery area and sales gross profit.

For a long time, whether to scale or profit has become the focus of debate in the real estate industry, especially some housing enterprises do not hesitate to sacrifice profits on the scale track. However, it is undeniable that with the scale becoming bigger and stronger, the profit advantage of housing enterprises is gradually presented. Taking China Shipping as an example, it has been dubbed the "king of profit" for many years, but it has been surpassed by Evergrande and Vanke in recent two years. At the moment when the market concentration is getting stronger and stronger, the larger the scale, the more advantages housing enterprises have in financing cost, land market and leverage, which ensures the sustained growth of profits.

Of course, scale is the cornerstone of profit growth, but high profits do not mean that enterprises have strong ability to make money. The control ability of financing cost, construction cost and sales cost affects the profit rate of real estate enterprises, and also reflects their ability to make money. Therefore, in the case of increased profits, limited housing prices and rising costs, how to maintain a sustained and stable net profit rate will test the profitability of housing enterprises.

Some housing enterprises sell projects to increase performance.

It is worth noting that in the first half of 20 19, the profit growth of a few housing enterprises was caused by the sale of projects or equity. In the eyes of the industry, this profit growth is unsustainable.

For example, Taihe 20 19 is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of133.7 billion yuan to15.73 million yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 40.04%-59.97%. For the reasons for the growth, Taihe said that during the reporting period, the development scale of the company's real estate projects grew normally, which can confirm that the sales revenue was higher than that of the same period last year, leading to profit growth; Some real estate projects introduced partners to carry out equity cooperation, and the investment income confirmed by equity transfer was higher than that of the same period last year.

HNA's investment in 20 19 is expected to achieve a net profit of 500,000-750,000 yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 100.58%- 100.86%. One of the reasons for the growth is equity transfer. In fact, in 2065438+2008, HNA investment realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 349 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2,682.66%. The main reason is that the company completed the transfer of the equity of Shanghai Qiantan Project Company during the reporting period, achieving an investment income of about 456 million yuan and an increase in profits.

In addition, Vantone Real Estate sold 70% equity of Xianghe Project to Shimao Real Estate in the first half of this year, and it is estimated that the investment income will be about 660 million yuan. In recent years, Yuetai shares have become an important means to achieve profitability by selling real estate projects as a whole or acquiring mature real estate projects.

Looking at the above companies, there are either problems in operation or crises in the capital chain. Selling projects to solve urgent needs indirectly improves performance.

The profit performance of small housing enterprises is poor.

If we say that on the track of profit, the living environment of some small and medium-sized housing enterprises is becoming more and more difficult. Among the 34 listed real estate enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen that have disclosed their profit forecasts, most of them are small and medium-sized real estate enterprises.

For example, Zhongzhou Holdings, a veteran real estate enterprise in Shenzhen, had a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 239 million yuan in the first half of 20 19, down 66.74% year-on-year. Zhongzhou Holdings said that the reason for the decline in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in this period was that the income of real estate projects completed and settled during the reporting period decreased compared with the same period of last year, resulting in a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to the parent company.

SZSE Ye Zhen A predicts that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 20 19 will be1870,000–229 million yuan, down 45%–55% compared with the same period last year. According to the company, the reasons for making the above forecast are as follows: due to the project carry-over cycle, it was confirmed that the investment income of cooperative development projects was relatively large in the same period last year.

20 19 The net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year is estimated to be 3150,000-3.85 million yuan, mainly due to the decrease in saleable houses and income.

In the first half of 20 19, CCCC Real Estate's estimated net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 92 million yuan, down 8,305,438+0% year-on-year. Regarding the decline in net profit, CCCC Real Estate said that first, the delivery area of houses in the first half of the year decreased compared with the same period of last year, resulting in a decrease in carry-over profits. Second, in the same period last year, Beijing United Real Estate Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, merged with Zhongjiao Shijiazhuang Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. under the same control, confirming the investment income of 236 million yuan. There was no similar business in the first half of this year.

Jaco, chief analyst of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that the increase of industry concentration is a general trend. On the whole, the share of 20 19 head housing enterprises is still increasing, and small and medium-sized housing enterprises will face greater risks if they have already acquired land at a high price on 20 17. In reality, many small and medium-sized housing enterprises seek living space by transferring project companies or actively cooperating with large housing enterprises. Therefore, for small and medium-sized housing enterprises, the sales and profit in 20 19 will face greater challenges, but more importantly, the living space will be shrinking in the future.

Ke Rui analyzed that market adjustment has a particularly obvious impact on small and medium-sized housing enterprises, while large housing enterprises are not affected by this, and the differentiation of industry competition pattern is further intensified. Based on the fact that the overall sales performance of real estate enterprises slowed down in the first half of the year compared with 20 18, the overall attitude of real estate enterprises to acquire land was relatively cautious. It is expected that the tone of slowing down the profit growth of real estate enterprises in the second half of 20 19 will continue.