The edible oil market is in turmoil again. After Indonesia's suspension of exports, Canada is also facing production cuts! What's the matter?

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This year's market is doomed to be unsettled.

With the continuous evolution of geopolitical conflicts and sanctions, the energy market fluctuates repeatedly; The grain market is affected by the change of supply and demand pattern, and the supply and demand are tight; The edible oil market has been fluctuating at a high level.

Not long ago, Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of vegetable oil, suddenly announced a suspension of vegetable oil exports, causing a thousand waves.

Subsequently, Canada, the world's largest exporter of rapeseed oil, also said that it would reduce rapeseed planting by 7%, which made the edible oil market turbulent again.

1. Indonesia suspends exports and Canada faces production cuts.

Indonesia is the world's largest producer of palm oil, and the international palm oil price rebounded from 5438+ 10 in June this year after a short decline.

The main reason for the rebound is that Indonesia is affected by labor shortage, and the export supply of palm oil is expected to decline.

In fact, this kind of worry is not unreasonable.

Not long ago, Indonesia announced that it would ban the export of edible oil and palm oil products on April 28, just to stabilize the impact of high oil prices on China.

The data shows that in 2020/2 1 year, Indonesia's palm oil production reached 43.5 million tons, accounting for 59.70% of the global total production, ranking first in the world; The global palm oil export volume is 47.94 million tons, of which Indonesia's palm oil export volume is 26.87 million tons, accounting for more than half.

Therefore, after Indonesia's export ban was announced, the global edible oil market was shocked.

Indonesia's heavy news market has not been digested, and then Canada recently said that under the tight global grain supply and demand pattern, farmers in the country tend to plant more grain, which may reduce the amount of rapeseed sown or lead to a 7% reduction in rapeseed sown area.

Rapeseed is the main raw material of rapeseed oil. If rapeseed is facing a reduction in production, it means that the output of rapeseed oil will also decrease accordingly.

Canada is the world's largest exporter of rapeseed and the second largest producer of rapeseed (second only to the European Union), but since last year, Canada's rapeseed has also been "troubled". First, the extremely dry weather reduced rapeseed production by nearly 1/3, and recently suffered from floods, which also increased the difficulty of spring sowing in May this year.

Second, the price of edible oil is running at a high level

Compared with the drastic fluctuation of energy market and food price, the price of edible oil has been high.

Looking back at the data of global food price index released by FAO, this year, the global food price index has shown a continuous upward trend, with an average of 135.7 points in June, up 1. 1% from the previous month. It rose to 140.7 in February, up 3.9% from the previous month; It rose to 159.3 in March, up 12.6% from the previous month, setting a new high in 30 years.

In this continuous rise, the category with the biggest increase is vegetable oil.

The data shows that the global vegetable oil price index in June 5438+ 10 was 185.9 points, up 4.2% from the previous month, the highest increase among all categories;

In February, the biggest increase in the food price index was still the vegetable oil price index, up 8.5% from the previous month.

In March, the vegetable oil price index rose by 23.2% month-on-month, a record high.

The vegetable oil price index rose sharply continuously, reflecting the global vegetable oil price increase.

In addition to palm oil and rapeseed oil mentioned above, soybean oil and sunflower oil also rose sharply.

The increase of soybean oil price is mainly affected by the reduction of soybean production in South America, which makes the soybean export expectation decline and the supply and demand are tight.

On the other hand, although American farmers tend to plant more soybeans, the weather is still an unstable factor. Weather speculation goes hand in hand with soybean prices, which increases the supply and price risk of soybeans.

Sunflower seed oil was directly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and its export volume dropped sharply.

Because Russia and Ukraine are both big exporters of sunflower oil, the sunflower oil exports of the two countries together account for more than 70% of the world's total exports. With the outbreak and continuation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of sunflower oil soared.

In addition, with the high price of crude oil, the demand for biodiesel has become strong, which also makes the global supply and demand of edible oil tight, which has contributed to the rise of edible oil prices.

Third, what is the impact on China?

The global rise in edible oil prices will inevitably affect China.

China's edible oil is highly dependent on foreign countries, and the domestic and international markets are strongly linked, so the domestic edible oil price is also under pressure.

Judging from the increase, the price of edible oil in China rose by 8.6% last year, far lower than the 65.8% increase of international edible oil, but higher than the increase of domestic food price 1. 1%.

However, in the follow-up, it is expected that the probability of a big increase is not great.

The first reason is that the consumption of edible oil in China is mainly soybean oil, vegetable oil and peanut oil, while palm oil and sunflower oil are relatively few, so the impact is relatively small.

Second, under the policy of "expanding soybean and oil crops" this year, domestic soybean and oil crops will increase greatly, which will alleviate part of domestic demand and reduce external dependence.

Third, with people paying more and more attention to healthy diet, the overall demand for edible oil is gradually declining.

However, with the increasing uncertainty of the global edible oil market, it takes a process for China to comprehensively upgrade its oil industry. Therefore, although the domestic edible oil market does not have the basis of substantial price increase, it is still inevitably affected by the global market, and oil bottles will still fluctuate at a high level.

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