"One shop for three generations" has become "one shop for three generations". Is the investment in shops completely cold?

In fact, it is not entirely correct to insist that "one store has three generations" has become "one store has three generations".

65438+At the end of 2007, my family opened a shop, millions of which was still second-hand. The developer rents it, and the annual rent is about 70 thousand, which is much more cost-effective than saving it in the bank. Moreover, the location is good, there are elevated roads around, and the subway is within1000 m. In the next two years, there will be a subway station within 500m, a large supermarket RT Mart and even many buildings around, and there will be no shortage of people. Personally, I feel ok.

Personally, I think there are several points to consider when choosing a store:

1, traffic accessibility

Traffic is a major factor that determines the flow of people. If you consider opening a shop, you should first look around for subways, trams and buses.

2. Population density

The so-called population density refers to whether there are many people in the surrounding residential areas and factories, and whether there are large supermarkets to drive people.

3. Is it in a prime location?

In prime locations, shops near subway stations and hospital bus stops will have more people and less risk.

It should also be noted that there are two kinds of shops, one is the shops rebuilt from residential buildings along the street, which can be used as shops or houses, and the other is the shops in department stores, which can only exist as shops. If you want to buy a shop, you'd better choose the first one.

"One shop for three generations" is the experience left by the older generation, but today it has become "one shop for three generations" due to changes in the economic environment and our own concept of stealing.

1, shops will do, especially old shops handed down from the family.

2. The shop is commercial real estate.

People today are mainly interested in the second kind. It seems that if they buy a shop, they can collect rent for three generations.

Nowadays, because the rent is not high enough, the income of investment shops is not enough to repay the loan.

At the same time, because the rent is too high, there is nothing to make money in the shops. Some of them are rented out after three years, and some are closed within six months.

In fact, if shops buy their own stores, even if house prices fall and costs rise, I am afraid the family will not go hungry.

Little girls don't go shopping nowadays. Everyone buys online and orders takeout at noon. As a result, the value of commercial real estate declined and house prices fell. Originally, people who simply invested in commercial real estate not only didn't get excess returns, but lost a little bit of assets, which is the origin of "one shop for three generations".

Commercial real estate needs to change with the business environment. Many commercial districts have changed from selling goods to new experience stores, and many new commercial stores such as fitness clubs and health cultural centers have emerged. But such a business does not necessarily need the ground floor property along the street.

The return on investment has a general scope, including three parameters:

1, general industry rate of return

2. Risk premium

3. Discount of market supply and demand

What is the general investment income?

It varies from 3% to 30%, with an average of about 10%. But this different industry is not easy to define, and I think it can be compared with the risk-free income in society. Risk-free income is the yield of national debt and the yield of Yu 'ebao. Today, it's about 3.6%. Let's call it A, and the income of general private investment mostly changes in 2-4 years.

Risk premium. That is, high risk should be high return.

Pure real estate investment is not too risky, so the income is less than 2 years. In the past, the rental income of shops was probably a little more than 6%, which was close to the bank loan interest rate. It is approximately equivalent to 1.5A. If1.5a is still used today, the annual rent of the store should be 5.4% of the property value.

market supply and demand

Due to the impact of online stores, merchants' dependence on stores has declined, coupled with the bad economic environment, most stores have no desire to expand, but need to reduce.

However, there are many shops in the world. Especially a few years ago, a large number of new shops were built and sold at high prices.

The contradiction between supply and demand leads to the discount of shop rents, and in some places the rent is only 3% of the house price.

From the transaction point of view, if the market rent drops, the newly acquired owner will maintain the lease value of 1.5A when the second-hand house of commercial real estate is sold, and the purchase price will be reduced. If the new owner buys at a 60% discount, his future rental income will return to more than 5%. This is the impact of the rise and fall of rent on the rise and fall of house prices.

The current situation is that the investment threshold of good shops is getting higher and higher, and it is no longer an era of closing your eyes and buying casually. Maybe a good store can't "support three generations in one store" as before, but "support one generation in one store" is more than enough, but there are many poor stores at present, and it is reasonable to be reduced to "support three generations in one store"!

Therefore, investment shops should keep their eyes open, look at lots, and be optimistic about the rate of return and future investment prospects for layout!

Judging from the two sets of shops I have invested in, I think the shops in the center of first-tier cities and second-tier cities that meet the rate of return of more than 7% are qualified good shops! There is a simple reason. Shops are originally an investment that looks at the rate of return, not at the rate of appreciation of output value. Because the high transaction costs of shops are doomed to low appreciation income, the rental return rate is the investment value!

At present, the financial management in the market can generally reach about 6.4%, and the inflation rate is about 7.5%. Therefore, the return on investment of shops must be kept above 7%, and it will barely pass if it approaches or exceeds inflation! !

1. You must be able to pay attention to catering, because e-commerce has a great impact now, but catering and experience consumption are still inseparable from entities, so shops that can pay attention to catering will directly determine your occupancy rate and rental return rate!

2. Shops along the street on the first floor, from the rental rate and rental return rate, shops with good lots will be more popular than relatively poor shops! Buying a store is no better than buying a house. Sometimes the difference is ten meters, and even the price of a floor is a world of difference!

Don't buy a store in the form of charter, there are too many tricks in it!

4. The store near the buyer is more convenient to manage. If you have any questions, you can come as soon as possible!

Try not to buy shopping malls and shops. If you must buy it, remember to buy a powerful big brand! Otherwise, it is easy to become a "ghost town"!

I don't think so. Take Shanghai where I live as an example. Almost all the shops in the street are full. If some shops are still vacant, the probability of renting out after a period of time is also great!

In addition, developed countries like Japan also kill e-commerce, so e-commerce has a strong impact, but it is impossible to replace the status of entities. Ten years ago, e-commerce hit the entity. Who can guarantee that the entity will not make a comeback after 10 years?

So I think if you have a certain capital reserve and a set of suitable and good shops in front of you, you can invest! Because the original intention of investment is: well, things are looked down upon by most people now and feel worthless, but everyone will think it is valuable in the future. Before that, you have to learn layout first!

In the 1980s and 1990s, due to the shortage of materials and commodities, the demand for commodities, whether factory products or daily needs, showed an "explosive" state of sudden increase.

At that time, the storefront along the street became a hot commodity, and it was also known as "grab and earn" and "one shop is rich for three generations". Of course, this also benefits from the background of the sudden increase in daily life needs in special times. Businessmen, in particular, have no storefront, so it is difficult to properly manage their business dealings.

But in the 20th century, with the advent of the Internet era, all this has changed. Internet has penetrated into thousands of households, and e-commerce has gradually been accepted and recognized by people. "Buy at home all over the country" has become the focus.

Of course, this new model also affects the business and value of the store. In the past, when buying goods, whether wholesale or retail, the buyer had to go to the store or ask someone to help him buy them. Therefore, in those days, where the population was concentrated and the passenger flow was at the lowest point, the value of shops increased, and even a shop could be earned back in one year.

Therefore, in the face of huge commercial profits, there is a saying that "one shop raises three generations".

Although e-commerce has penetrated into people's lives, the store business has begun to fall from the "peak" and the business is gradually divided by e-commerce. This online shopping method has gradually been liked by people, and even created the "Double Eleven" shopping festival. Singles' Day becomes Chopper's Day.

Under the background of e-commerce "buying all over the country without leaving home" and even now developing to "buying all over the world", the actual value and role of stores are getting lower and lower. The original "one shop for three generations" was gradually changed to "one shop for three generations" by investors who invested in shops.

So, is the investment in shops completely cold?

Personally, I think there are still opportunities for shops, but if you want to invest, you need to be cautious.

First, although the value of shops has decreased, they are still valuable.

After the arrival of the e-commerce era, the value of shops has indeed decreased a lot. In particular, many customers have become accustomed to online shopping, which has reduced the turnover of the store and reduced the business of the store.

However, why do many stores still survive after 20 years of e-commerce? It is because the characteristic value of some stores is irreplaceable by e-commerce.

Of course, in this context, Lei Jun first put forward the concept of "new retail", and later when Ma Yun talked about "new retail", it was widely recognized.

It is to integrate the advantages of online data with the advantages of offline experience, integrate online and offline, and propose the reform of "new retail".

Therefore, although the value of shops has become lower and lower in the e-commerce era, it is still valuable. And this value is beyond the reach of e-commerce.

For example, the advantages of e-commerce include speed, staying indoors, presentation, information, simple experience and data, but it has no advantages of experience. What about the store? Intuitive, experiential and communicative.

The advantages of shops are valuable.

Since there is this value, it cannot be said that the investment in shops is completely indifferent. What is important is how to integrate online data and information, and then combine the experience of offline stores to better present brands and services.

The city is a third-tier city. Through understanding, the total price of 100 square meter shops in the market is about 2 million to 5 million, with different prices in different regions. However, the rental return rate of 100 square meter shops is about 2%-5%.

And what is the annual rate of return of low-risk grades in market wealth management products? 3.5%-5.5% level. In other words, the annual rate of return of investment shops is actually similar to that of low-risk wealth management products on the market.

Then, will property prices rise or fall in the future? Judging from the law of real estate prices in China, it is difficult for real estate prices to rise sharply in the next three to five years.

The law of real estate price is summarized as "rapid rise, long-term high sideways". In 2009 and 20 10, real estate prices rose sharply, and then restrictions on purchases and loans came, which inhibited real estate transactions to a certain extent, reducing transaction volume and demand. Of course, this method is effective.

From 20 1 1 to 20 15, the real estate market price did not fluctuate greatly, showing a "high position sideways".

During 20 16 and 20 17, real estate prices rose sharply again, starting in second-tier cities and finally sweeping the country. Of course, restricting purchases and loans will once again reduce the volume of transactions and reduce demand. On the one hand, it will increase the supply of real estate, on the other hand, it will increase public rental housing and property rights housing.

Under the multiple influences, the real estate market price stabilized at 20 18, showing a "high sideways".

Judging from the trend characteristics of real estate prices, it is difficult for real estate prices to continue to rise sharply in the next three to five years. The greater probability is "high sideways".

Not only is the annualized rate of return low at present, but there is no possibility and space for price increase in the next few years. Therefore, if you buy a shop for the purpose of investment, you need to be cautious.

What if it is for your own needs and use? If this is the case, investment shops are still a good choice. After all, it is for your own use, which can maximize the use.

First of all, let's analyze who the general shops are rented to. There are generally several types of enterprises that rent shops, such as clothing stores, restaurants and convenience stores. These stores are also the industries that have the most serious impact on e-commerce. For example, we first bought clothes at Tmall and Taobao, and later included takeout. These enterprises, which are basically closely related to the Internet, are tired.

The enterprise that rents the most shops is such an enterprise. However, with the difficulties of these enterprises, the income reduction is naturally unsustainable in the face of high rent, so this is also the reason why many shops are difficult to rent (low rent).

Many people regard the impact of e-commerce and the Internet as the cause of bad business. I was puzzled for a long time. Is that really the case? Personally, I think that in fact, e-commerce and the Internet have only infinitely expanded some weaknesses of some traditional domestic enterprises. Imagine, if there were no e-commerce and internet, would you know that a dress could be half cheaper than a physical store? Do you know that there is no reason to get a refund for seven days? Do you know that payment can be evaluated first? No way! ! ! It can only be said that the Internet and e-commerce have amplified some business weaknesses of many enterprises (mainly some small retail enterprises) in China in the past. However, it must be said that many small enterprises can't adapt to this new environment, and naturally there will be many bankruptcies or business failures.

Nowadays, shops in many cities are used for investment, and it is difficult to make up the mortgage with rent. Simple calculation, taking ordinary second-tier cities as an example. At present, the price of shops in second-tier cities is around 30,000 yuan, so shops with a square meter of 100 need 3 million yuan. Besides the down payment of 50%, they need10.5 million yuan, and then they need to repay the mortgage monthly according to the benchmark interest rate (ten-year loan for shops). The rent of shops in second-tier cities is basically around 65,438 yuan. 46536.66666666666

First, the vacancy rate of shops in most cities is quite high. Statistics show that the vacancy rate of shops and office buildings in most second-tier cities has reached more than 30%. This means that at least 30% of the shops will not be rented out except for mature business districts. Generally speaking, it takes about 3 years for a mature business circle to take shape.

Second, just like housing investment, shops need to be cautious when investing. Friends who have read my article know that my view has always been that you just need to buy and have your own needs. As for investment, it is not recommended.

Today is just the advertising slogan of real estate developers, who dug the pit. If you jump in, you will be trapped.

According to statistics, the total value of real estate in China has reached 65 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 450 trillion yuan, which is more than the total value of real estate in the United States, Japan and Europe. It's really unimaginable.

How did such a huge amount of wealth come from? It's completely fried, and there is no gold content at all. Real estate has become one of the few investment targets, and piles of bricks and tiles have wonderfully become financial instruments, which are out of control.

The high housing price and the big bubble have gone far beyond people's tolerance, and home ownership has become the dream of many people.

Especially commercial real estate, because it is more suitable for investment and speculation, the house price is not the highest, only higher. At the same time, it also stimulates real estate developers to continuously increase investment, resulting in a serious surplus of commercial real estate. Many people who spend all their money on commercial real estate are trapped in it. One store for three generations has become one store for three generations. The main reasons are as follows:

1. There is a serious surplus of commercial real estate, which leads to lower and lower rents and a great mismatch between investment and income.

Commercial internet replaces traditional commerce, which makes it difficult for traditional commerce to operate and shops to rent.

3. The economy is in the downward cycle, all walks of life are depressed, people's income is generally reduced, which leads to limited consumption, and it is even more difficult to rent shops.

When this situation will end is unknown. It may take two or three generations or even four or five generations to digest this $65 trillion real estate. It's not just three generations who may be cheated!

First, online instead of offline, the commercial value has shrunk seriously.

I don't think shops have no investment value at all, but investment risks are great.

If it is a shop in a prime location with a large flow of people and a strong business atmosphere, I suggest you hold it for a long time, because the monthly rent is excessive, a good shop is equal to the pension of retired teachers, and it will provide you with rent for a long time, so there is no need to rent a good location. Moreover, although shops say that they only have a service life of 50 years, in fact, like real estate, the core area will not exist after 50 years? For example, Nanjing Road in Shanghai! Nanjing's Dongjiekou Scenic Resort Scenic Area and so on.

But in fact, the valuable areas of shops in good lots have long been bought by people of insight, which was many years ago, because these shops in good lots in the central area have long been built.

But why are shops risky? It means that the business circle of a good lot has long been carved up, but the development of commercial real estate continues and expands to the periphery of the city. The value of shops in these lots is questionable. If you buy a shop that is difficult to rent in a new business district with little traffic, you are basically a crab eater. Once this business district can't be rented out, you will have no income except paying the property fee every month, and all the funds are trapped here, and in such a lot. Basically became a catcher. Moreover, due to the influence of online shopping, it is more difficult to develop the new business district. Be careful.

High-quality shops in good locations, if they have spare money and good prices, can buy and rent, which is also a strategy of constantly maintaining the value of assets. If they are restricted from buying a house, they can't buy it.

The dividend era of "one shop for three generations" has passed, but it is not "one shop for three generations". However, investing in shops is similar to buying stocks, and the win is not great. It is impossible to lose money and make money.

Its background is the vigorous rise and development of e-commerce, which no one can foresee. E-commerce has completely subverted the traditional business model and affected the investment of shops. A large number of shops along the street or subway built by openers have diluted the gold content of shops, making them as oversupply as new shares in the A-share market.

Regrettably, there are still a number of speculative funds speculating on new shares in the A-share market. However, newly-built shops may not be rented out immediately; The "articles of association" promised by various developers may be good in the first few years. If the business environment changes negatively, build a new urban complex nearby. Or because urban planning has weakened the market of shops, investors may face the trouble of renting houses.

However, when e-commerce develops to a certain extent, it will also encounter the ceiling. Now the e-commerce unicorn company has turned its attention to offline sales; Face-to-face traditional business still has its unique vitality, even in developed countries in the world.

Investment shops should upgrade simple investment to parallel leasing and partnership operation; Or buy a single-family shop, in case the whole shopping mall can't be rented out, it will bring trouble to individuals and collectives.

Investing in shops in the future will test investors' vision; See if they have a prior understanding of the local urban development planning. There is a higher demand for investors' ideas and patterns. Shops can still invest in gold by doing more homework to understand the market situation.

Finally, remind investors that many things are unpredictable. For example, the depreciation of shops caused by demolition and urban transformation. It's like buying stocks and stepping on performance mines. There is no way out if you are unlucky, so investors must be psychologically prepared and tolerant of all kinds of risks.

(Full of dry goods ~) The first thing to say is that shops and commercial real estate are different concepts.

Shops generally refer to properties facing the street or commercial market, while commercial real estate also includes properties entrusted by office buildings and parking spaces, such as shopping mall properties and tourism real estate. Unlike housing, both are investment properties.

Due to the influence of e-commerce and economy, the shops that have been chasing sticks have finally cooled down. Presumably, the boss who has been a tenant knows that when signing a contract, it should be paid at least quarterly, and the annual increase rate of the transfer fee should be agreed. When transferring, the landlord must agree to divide the transfer fee one by one, otherwise thousands of investments will be wasted.

There are even more disgusting shopping malls, jealous bosses with good business, and they are reluctant to save their popularity when their contracts expire in three or five years. They should continue to operate and pay the transfer fee for nothing when renewing the contract, otherwise they can't rent it out anyway. The rising rent year by year is really a lifetime investment, and "one shop is rich for three generations" is not groundless.

Jiangyang proprietress Chen took over the house to pay off debts. 1988, she bought a 50-square-meter shop in dashanping, less than 20,000 yuan. In three years, she got her capital back. By 20 10, the market value is 3 million, not counting the annual rent of nearly 100000.

However, with the cooling of the real estate market, compared with the people who just need it, the investment in shops is cold. Especially in the third-and fourth-tier cities, the concentrated trade centers and the XX market have caused an oversupply. The positioning is wrong, and the consumption level is low. Obviously, a small county has to build a trade city of tens of thousands of square meters, claiming to be the largest in a province, and usually rich people list their purchases in the city or the provincial capital.

Developers are eager for quick success and instant benefit, no matter whether there is business in the future, they will try their best to speculate. Buying a shop is not buying cabbage. There are many problems to consider, but it needs a lot of money, and it is a 50% down payment.

Many small and medium-sized investors, due to the lack of relevant experience in buying a house for the first time, think that buying a house is better than deposit insurance, but they don't know that it is different from deposit and national debt insurance, which is a high requirement for venture capital.

In the days of high housing prices, buying is earning. Once the market is weak and the price is reduced, the hard life of buyers fooled by developers begins. Especially for people with more loans, once they can't rent out, or the rent shrinks, there will be great pressure to repay the loan. (Don't worry about chartering, the pit is bigger inside)

Shoppers face the problem that they can't sell (many conjoined stores have complicated property rights disputes, but street stores are better), can't rent out, and the loan interest is high, so they can't breathe. After years of hard work, it can be regarded as "three generations and one store" to change such a difficult situation.