Risk management of real estate projects

Risk refers to the possibility that the actual output of the system deviates from the expected target output due to the uncertainty of the system itself and environmental conditions.

2, the relationship between the three elements of risk.

Risk factors-factors that can produce or increase the frequency and degree of losses. The increase of risk factors will increase the possibility of risk accidents, which is the potential cause of risk events and the indirect and internal cause of risk losses. .

Risk event-refers to the direct cause or external cause of loss. Only through the occurrence of risk accidents can losses be caused, and risk events are the medium of losses.

3、

Risk factors can be divided into:

A. Substantial risk factors (tangible material conditions);

B, moral hazard factors (intangible, generally malicious, bad, intentional);

C psychological risk factors (intangible, usually subjective negligence, negligence or ignorance).

Losses are divided into direct losses and indirect losses.

A. Direct loss: the fact that the subject matter itself is damaged due to a risk event.

B. Indirect loss: the fact of destruction caused by direct loss, including loss of extra expenses, loss of income and loss of responsibility.

4. Risk classification

According to the nature of risk: static risk and dynamic risk.

According to the risk scope: basic risk and specific risk.

Causes of risk: natural risk, social risk, economic risk and political risk.

According to the potential loss forms: property risk, personal risk and liability risk (liability for compensation).

5. Guidelines for comprehensive risk management of central enterprises

Article 3 The term "enterprise risk" as mentioned in these Guidelines refers to the influence of future uncertainty on the realization of business objectives of enterprises. Enterprise risks can generally be divided into strategic risks, financial risks, market risks, operational risks and legal risks. Risk can also be divided into pure risk (only one possibility of loss) and opportunity risk (two possibilities of loss and profit coexist), as a sign of whether it can bring profits to enterprises.

6, the process of risk identification

1) Confirm the objective existence of uncertainty;

2) establish a preliminary list;

3) establish various risk events and speculate their results;

4) Develop a risk prediction chart;

5) Risk classification;

6) Establish a risk catalogue summary.

7. Program subsystem

Risk identification (where there are risks; Reasons, etc. ); Risk estimation (probability; Loss size); Risk assessment (impact; Cost benefit analysis); Risk decision (risk management measures; Scheme selection); Risk treatment (risk management plan; Organize implementation); Inspection summary (supervision, inspection and coordination; Sum up experience and lessons).

7. Method subsystem

Methods of risk identification: expert investigation, fault tree method, flow chart analysis, insurance investigation, policy comparison, on-site inspection, financial statement analysis, etc.

Methods of risk estimation: subjective estimation, objective estimation, loss estimation, break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo method and correlation effect estimation.

Risk assessment methods: cost-benefit analysis method, adjusted discount rate method, proper quantity method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.

8. Risks in real estate development

1. Risks in the investment decision-making stage;

Development area and risk, development property type and risk, development opportunity and risk.

2. Risks in the stage of land expropriation;

Land risk; Market risk; Risk of land acquisition and demolition; Financing risk.

3. Risks in the project construction stage;

Bidding mode and risk, contracting mode and risk, contracting contract risk, natural condition risk, construction delay, project quality, development cost risk, construction claim risk.

4. Risks in the management stage of renting and selling.

Sales opportunity risk, lease contract risk, natural disaster risk and accident risk.

9, construction claim risk

The owner's behavior has potential claim opportunities; The behavior of the owner's representative has potential claim opportunities; There are potential claims for design changes; There are potential claims for changes in construction conditions and methods; Changes in national policies and regulations have potential claims opportunities; Force majeure events have potential claims opportunities; Unforeseen factors have potential claims opportunities; Potential claim opportunities for defects in contract conditions; The subcontractor's breach of contract has potential claim opportunities.

10, the content of project risk assessment

1) estimation of the possibility of risk events; 2) Estimation of the severity of the consequences of risk events; 3) Estimation of the influence range of risk events; 4) Estimation of the occurrence time of risk events;

1 1. Objectives of risk assessment and tasks of risk assessment decision:

Goal:

Judge whether the risk management measures are economically feasible;

Judge whether the project risk level is within the scope of enterprise risk management objectives;

Choose the best development plan that meets the enterprise management objectives.

Task:

Establish an objective and scientific evaluation index system;

Select an appropriate evaluation method and calculate the values of each evaluation index;

Choose a comprehensive evaluation method and make a comprehensive evaluation decision.

12. When the risk is uncertain, the "infeasible rate" can be used to compare the risks.

Infeasible rate, i.e.:

P (income

=P[(R- expected return R0)/ standard deviation d)

= P[(R-R0)/D & lt； (L-R0 )/D]

= P[X & lt； (L-R0 )/D]

= 1-P[X & lt； (R0- L )/D]

= 1-φ[(R0-L)/D]