Real estate is a pillar industry.

First, the outcome of the mine explosion in housing enterprises.

Second, the real problem of real estate market recovery.

Third, the hedging strategy of real estate investment institutions.

The author emphasizes:

65438+February 1 1, at the "20021-2022 China Economic Annual Meeting", Ji Ningzhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said, "Real estate is a pillar industry, and housing is the consumption of residents."

I thought that the above statement of the regulatory authorities could at least restore the industry's confidence, but I didn't expect that on Monday and Tuesday (12, 13- 14), real estate stocks suffered a continuous collective plunge, but in the past few days, there are still well-known real estate enterprises that have successively exploded their positions, and the real estate enterprises that have exploded their positions are also surrounded by investors, suppliers and buyers every day.

First, the outcome of the mine explosion in housing enterprises.

Many colleagues in real estate investment institutions say that they have never had a good sleep since stepping on thunder. After the explosion of real estate enterprises, investors, banks, trusts, private equity, financial control, small loans, bond guarantee companies, and various real estate financing products all rushed to run, which also triggered a more serious run, including lending, loan suspension, prosecution, seizure and other institutions. Sadly, if the debt scale of housing enterprises reaches hundreds of billions or hundreds of billions, other financing paths are unsustainable, and banks can't afford to save even if they want to, so it is better to give up directly. The market generally believes that if the property market can't stabilize and pick up before the Spring Festival in 2022 (that is, the sales market can't pick up), most private housing enterprises will face life and death, and they will be eliminated by the market.

For the "three highs" housing enterprises with high leverage, high debt and high turnover, after the strong regulation of the property market broke the expectations of buyers, it first affected the sales end of housing enterprises. After the sales were difficult to overlap and the payment was difficult, housing enterprises slowly turned to suppliers and investors, and then the secondary market caused a double blow to stocks and liabilities. After the bears came up, the rating agencies immediately downgraded the housing enterprises and products, and then there was overwhelming negative news. Subsequently, the stock and debt further fell sharply, eventually causing customers to dare to buy houses and financial institutions to dare to lend, eventually forming a vicious circle. The sales cash flow and cash flow from financing of real estate enterprises have stopped. After a long time, real estate enterprises will naturally die.

On February 9, 2002165438, Huaxia Happiness announced that "the debt restructuring plan has been voted by the Debt Committee". Judging from the debt plan, it is mainly as follows: first, sell some assets and use them for debt repayment and project development after returning funds; The second is to sell some good projects and plots, and at the same time bind the corresponding debts; Third, give priority to paying off financial debts in 5-8 years; Fourth, after setting the share of trust beneficial right with the holding property with stable cash flow, directly offset the debt with the share of trust beneficial right; Fifth, other debts are gradually paid off by Huaxia Happiness through extension, interest rate reduction and subsequent operations. The market believes that extending the main financial liabilities of Huaxia Happiness for 5-8 years will buy some time for its subsequent recovery of hematopoiesis, and at the same time enhance the confidence of enterprises in coping with debt pressure. However, the debt crisis has not been lifted in essence, because the debt itself has only been agreed by creditors in terms of repayment methods, repayment dates and interest rates, and it remains to be seen whether it can finally raise funds to pay off the debt. For example, at present, the sales side of Huaxia Happiness is basically silent, which casts a thick shadow on the debt repayment plan.

It is worth mentioning that for large-scale housing enterprises, the above-mentioned debt resolution scheme is indeed remarkable, and may even become a debt resolution scheme for reference and replication. However, for small and medium-sized housing enterprises, the above scheme is difficult to implement, which may be the essential difference between large and medium-sized housing enterprises after the mine explosion (perhaps it really has great benefits). Of course, from a realistic point of view, the above scheme can only be accepted by real estate investment institutions. Housing enterprises need time to change space, investors can only wait slowly, whether it is to extend the term and reduce interest, interest-free and principal discount, at least there is hope. As for how long various institutions such as trusts and private placements can last for themselves, it may depend on their own liquidity.

Second, the real problem of real estate market recovery.

At the "20021-2022 China Economic Annual Meeting" held on February1,Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Financial and Economic Committee Office, and Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, made authoritative interpretations of the recent Central Economic Work Conference. Zhe said, "We should strengthen the basic housing security for residents. Real estate is a pillar industry, and housing is the consumption of residents. It is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strengthen expected guidance, explore new development models, adhere to both rent and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies. " Han Wenxiu pointed out that "the real estate industry is large in scale, long in chain and wide in scope. In the national economy, it accounts for a fairly high share of fixed assets investment in the whole society, local fiscal revenue and total loans of financial institutions, which has an important systematic impact on economic and financial stability and risk prevention. "

From February 8, 65438 to February 8, 10, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The statement about real estate is: "Insist on the orientation that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strengthen the expected guidance, explore new development models, adhere to both rent and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote a virtuous circle of the real estate industry due to the city's policy. Judging from the adjustment of the Central Economic Work Conference, real estate has been adjusted from "stable market" to "stable industry". The regulatory authorities reiterated that "real estate is a pillar industry", which can be most intuitively reflected from the data. According to statistics, taking 2020 as an example, the added value of the real estate industry accounts for 7.3% of GDP, and the real estate and its industrial chain account for17% of China's GDP; Investment in real estate development accounts for 27.3% of investment in fixed assets, and investment driven by real estate and its industrial chain accounts for 5 1.5% of investment in fixed assets of the whole society. Real estate loans accounted for 27.4% of the loan balance (2021), and the increase in real estate financing in June 2002/kloc-0 accounted for 20% of the increase in social financing. In 2020, China's housing market value will account for 66.6% of the stock debt housing market value, while the ratio of China's housing market value to the stock debt housing market value is high, and most of the residents' wealth is in the house.

Many people don't quite understand why it is so difficult to return the confidence in the real estate market. In fact, it is difficult to change investors' confidence in real estate financing products or buyers' confidence in the short term before the three factors that determine the return of confidence are completely improved. Judging from the market trend, first, the sales end of the property market needs to make appropriate adjustments to the restrictions on purchases, loans, sales and housing prices due to the city. The rebound of sales volume and price is the basis for the whole society to return to confidence in the real estate market and realize the goal of "promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry by taking measures because of the city" required by the Central Economic Work Conference in June and February of 5438. Second, the loosening of credit policy. At present, bond financing and bank financing are mainly liberalized for state-owned central enterprises and high-quality private housing enterprises, but the credit policies for other housing enterprises have not been relaxed at all. Therefore, most housing enterprises are still unable to achieve normal financing and capital circulation, which will also accumulate more and more market risks; Third, the supervision of pre-sale funds. Although some cities have adopted alternative methods such as bank guarantee, under the pressure of "guaranteeing delivery", most local governments have locked in sales rebates through strong supervision, that is, housing enterprises are faced with the dilemma that they cannot get rid of even if they have surplus funds. This situation that they have money but don't use it will eventually lead to a vicious circle, especially the adverse effects on debt repayment and new investment.

Third, the hedging strategy of real estate investment institutions.

In the thunder storm of this wave of housing enterprises, the investment of real estate funds and equity trust products has been greatly hurt. Judging from the order of debt repayment after the bankruptcy of real estate enterprises, bankruptcy expenses and * * * beneficial debts >: buyer's creditor's rights > project payment priority > mortgage creditor's rights > employee's salary > tax > ordinary creditor's rights. For an institution that focuses on equity investment products, when the counterparty (real estate enterprise) breaks out, we will actually be very passive. First, the project can't be sold after the explosion of real estate enterprises, even if they are willing to cut prices and lose money; Second, new financing funds can't come in, and basically no institution is willing to continue to provide funds to replace our previous financing funds. Moreover, even if the bank has a mortgage loan, the government will firmly lock the funds in the supervision account under the principle of ensuring delivery, that is to say, it is difficult to repay our previous financing principal and interest through the sales receipt.

In order to better solve the problem that financing cannot be successfully withdrawn after it expires, we have mainly adjusted the following business strategies at present:

1. Introducing partners

For example, we communicate with the shareholders of the financing party, directly introduce the takeover party or new investors, and the original shareholders of the financing party withdraw from the project company (the continued presence of real estate enterprises in the project company after the explosion will affect the financing and sales of the project company).

Remarks: In many projects of HD in Shenzhen-Dongguan, partners (including investment institutions) directly acquire the equity of the project company held by HD, or partners (including investment institutions) directly seek a third party to acquire the equity held by HD.

2. Deal with gambling: forced to delay the sale.

In view of the disputes that may occur in the exit stage, we pay more attention to the arrangement of compulsory entrustment after the expiration of the gambling agreement before Qian Rong enters, and also pay more attention to the implementation of strong supervision in the post-investment stage, including the control of the seal and license of the project company, bank account, revenue and expenditure management and fund monitoring of the project company.

3.*** Debt treatment

If a dispute or controversial issue finally enters the bankruptcy reorganization procedure, we will generally consider introducing an agent to realize the investment of beneficial creditor's rights through the bankruptcy reorganization procedure, but only if our front-end post-investment supervision is in place (for example, SAFE has not been taken away by the financier), including the assets, creditor's rights and debts of the project company are under control.

4. Litigation handling

This method is more conventional, so I won't repeat it here.