Shenzhen property market is now periodically adjusted to solve the supply problem. Is there a time difference?

There are indications that the regulation of the New Deal is immediate, and the Shenzhen property market has entered an adjustment period. The temporary adjustment has not scared investors who continue to be optimistic about Shenzhen. Most people still think that this is an opportunity to live or even invest in housing, and you can find "bamboo shoots"; In the future, housing prices in Shenzhen will rise. But will Shenzhen become a healthy and orderly market after the recent proposal to increase land supply?

Our reporter Zhang Xiaoling intern reporter Wu Shenzhen reports.

When the wind reverses, the fastest response is always those investors and second-hand housing owners.

In April, the quotation of second-hand houses in several districts of Shenzhen was lowered, and the hope of investment purpose hurried away; In the circle of intermediaries and developers, the bearish index and atmosphere are getting heavier and heavier, which is reflected in the market performance, that is, the transaction of new houses has declined for five consecutive weeks and the price has stagnated.

Those who were accidentally injured were those who just needed and changed tenants. As the "March 25th" New Deal requires that the down payment of those with loan records be increased to 40% in the past two years, many people just can't afford the extra 10%, so they are blocked from the property market, and buyers' defaults suddenly increase.

Last year's "March 30" gave birth to the fiery heat, and now it has been brought into adjustment by "March 25", and the Shenzhen property market still cannot get out of the strange circle of policy fluctuations. Behind this, the fast knot of the property market supply has not yet been opened.

The market cooled down and the transaction fell.

The "3.25" control policy was implemented, and the Shenzhen property market with strong wait-and-see mood further cooled down.

Shenzhen Zhongyuan said that due to the obvious increase in the threshold for entering the market, some just-needed customers who lost the qualification to purchase houses had to temporarily slow down the purchase plan or turn to Linshen District, while other customers were more cautious about the market.

According to the monitoring of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, according to the data of Land and Resources Planning Bureau, last week (March 28th-April 3rd), 652 sets of first-hand houses were sold, with an area of about 70,500 square meters, down 16% and 15.7% respectively from the previous month. The transaction area of new houses has declined for five consecutive weeks, less than half of the transaction volume before the Spring Festival.

Last week, the first-hand transaction price was about 49,600/square meter, down 7.6% from the previous month. However, the average transaction price is affected by the transaction structure, and the reference significance of one-week price is limited.

Judging from the push, three projects entered the market last week (3.27-4.3), selling a total of 395 suites, significantly lower than last week's 1520 sets. In fact, since the "March 25 New Deal", the speed and volume of new houses entering the market have dropped significantly, and the market has cooled significantly.

Many intermediaries in Shenzhen believe that the first-tier property market is expected to enter the adjustment stage in the future. In the case of sustained economic downturn and external economic shocks, the transaction volume and volume of the new housing market will continue to be at a low level.

The second-hand housing market is more obvious. Last week (3.28-4.3), 4,799 sets of second-hand houses were sold, up 33.27% from the previous month. However, this is due to the blowout of the transfer volume in the last week before the upward adjustment in April 1 day, and the average daily transfer volume in the last two days exceeded 1000 sets. With the implementation of the New Deal, it is expected that the transaction volume will be adjusted in the future.

More obviously, second-hand housing owners continue to lower their quotations, and Shenzhen Zhongyuan quotation index has dropped to 32.5 1% last week, down 5.6% from the previous week. According to 30% of the trunk line. The sentiment of buying houses in the market has gradually faded, and the Shenzhen Zhongyuan Managers Index fell below 50% this week.

More than 60% of the second-hand houses in the city are lowering their quotations, and owners in all districts are stepping up their price reduction and selling. Among them, Nanshan South District and Nanshan North District decreased by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. The Futian Zhuzilin area lowered its offer for four consecutive weeks, with a drop of 3.4% last week; The construction area of the Great Wall is reduced by 6. 1%. At the same time, Longhua District, which had a large increase in the previous period, lowered its offer by 0.2% and has lowered its offer for five consecutive weeks; The owner's quotation in Bantian District has also been lowered for four consecutive weeks, and the decline has expanded to 1.7%. Judging from the proportion of the houses quoted by the owners, nearly 30% of the houses were reduced by 1%-5%.

Periodic adjustment has arrived.

There are indications that the regulation of the New Deal is immediate, and the Shenzhen property market has entered an adjustment period.

Shenzhen Zhongyuan pointed out that in the past month, international rating agencies have successively downgraded China's rating outlook. In early March, Moody's downgraded China's sovereign credit rating outlook and 7 1 corporate rating outlook. At the beginning of April, Standard & Poor's also downgraded China's sovereign credit rating outlook to negative, and at the same time downgraded Hong Kong's rating outlook to negative.

Recent peripheral economic data and financial data show that China's economy is still bottoming out. In this case, strict control policies will drive a large amount of funds to leave the first-tier property market quickly, and the first-tier property market will face greater challenges in the future and gradually enter the adjustment period.

The Savills report also believes that under the tone of market regulation this year, the new real estate policy will have many influences on the real estate market; The average transaction price and volume of ordinary residential market in Shenzhen will fluctuate.

Jiang, managing director of Midland Property Shenzhen and Huizhou District, further pointed out that it is expected that after the implementation of the New Deal, the purchasing power will be reduced by one third, which will have an impact on Shenzhen housing prices within six months.

The pressure is greater in areas with large stocks and distant locations. According to Midland Property Statistics, as of March 29th, the residential inventory in Shenzhen was 32,482 units, 5,084 units less than that at the end of 20 15, and the overall inventory pressure was low. However, there are also some areas with high stocks. 20 1 14 15 sets At the end of the year, Longgang's inventory increased to 12737 sets on March 29th, 2006, accounting for 40% of the city's inventory.

It is worth noting that after the down payment ratio of the second suite of Shenzhen New Deal increased to 40%, the phenomenon of second-hand housing buyers defaulting began to increase, and buyers' expectations changed.

"The number of inquiries from buyers requesting to cancel the contract is indeed increasing, especially after the evaluation price of second-hand housing transactions rose sharply in April 1." Zhang Maorong, director of Guangdong Xinrong Law Firm, said that the phenomenon of buyers' breach of contract is that the buyers really can't afford to pay the down payment above 10%, and the buyers who have the ability to pay intend to give up buying houses with the help of the New Deal because of the expected decline in house prices.

Zhang Maorong believes that buyers don't want to buy more because of the expectation of falling house prices.

Open the knot of supply?

The temporary adjustment has not scared investors who continue to be optimistic about Shenzhen. Most people in the industry in Shenzhen still believe that the arrival of the adjustment period is an opportunity for self-occupation or even investment in housing, and "bamboo shoots" can be found; In the future, housing prices in Shenzhen will rise.

Ding Song, director of the Tourism and Real Estate Research Center of China Comprehensive Development Research Institute, pointed out that from the regulation process of Shenzhen property market for more than ten years, the demand for regulation has always been to raise the soup and stop the boiling, and after a short downturn, it has risen more sharply. The logic behind it is that supply has been too weak and demand has been too strong. The average annual net inflow of 600,000 people is only about one-half to one-third of the supply of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which is stretched.

Based on the recent New Deal in Shenzhen, Ding Song believes that the government may want to use the time window of six months to one year to control demand, stabilize the market first, stabilize the transaction volume and house price, and strive to rapidly promote the supply and supply speed through various channels and strategies during this period, so as to fundamentally reverse the long-standing serious relationship between supply and demand in Shenzhen property market and create a strategic balance between supply and demand.

How to increase supply? Ma Xingrui, secretary of Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee, put forward plans for affordable housing, new land supply and reclamation.

In the 13th Five-Year Plan, Shenzhen plans to develop 400,000 sets of affordable housing, with an actual supply of 350,000 sets. However, Shenzhen people think that it should be no problem to actually implement about 200,000 sets, with an average of 40,000 sets per year, which is the turnover of new commercial housing in Shenzhen in 20 14 years.

Ma Xingrui also announced that it will reclaim 55 square kilometers of land in Shenzhen in the future. In fact, Shenzhen has been filling the sea for many years, and Houhai area is the new city. If a huge space of 55 square kilometers is added, it will have a far-reaching impact on Shenzhen, which is seriously short of land. But this measure is difficult to achieve in the short term.

Ding Song also pointed out that over the years, due to the existence of more than 4 million square meters of illegal buildings, saying that "Shenzhen has no land" has become a lie. Nearly 900 million square meters of buildings have been built in Shenzhen for more than 30 years, of which 400 million are illegal buildings, accounting for 43%. According to the unified deployment of Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government, 200 million square meters of illegal buildings will be reduced in the next five years. Specific analysis shows that there are about 35 million square meters of illegal buildings that really belong to the residential category.

Assuming that the above measures to increase supply can be successfully realized, the Shenzhen property market may form about 200,000 to 300,000 second-hand housing transactions every year, and the balance between supply and demand in Shenzhen can be expected.

In fact, from the perspective of supply and demand, the rapidly rising housing prices are damaging the competitiveness of Shenzhen. Many manufacturing practitioners pointed out that the rising living costs of migrant workers and low-income groups and the declining marginal benefits of urban development will lead to the risk of population outflow. Shenzhen's current prosperity is based on population inflow, and housing prices are also based on population. Once the population flows out, in addition to the real estate bubble, a large number of enterprises in Shenzhen may be forced to move because of the difficulty in recruiting workers.

(The above answers were published on 20 16-04-09. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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