Is Silver City going out of business?

Perhaps, as a rising star in Hong Kong's capital market, the performance of Yin Cheng International (0 1902). HK)20 19 surprised investors. Not only missed the sales target of 20 billion yuan again, but also increased income without increasing profits, and the profitability was worrying. At the same time, the long-term liquidity risk faced by Yin Cheng International has not been completely solved after listing. In addition, with the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic, if sales are blocked, the liquidity of Yin Cheng International will further deteriorate.

: 1, did not break through the sales mark of 20 billion in two years, and lowered the sales target for 2020. In terms of qualification, the history of Yin Cheng International in the real estate industry can be traced back to 1993, but its scale expansion has never made substantial progress. Different from many peers who embarked on the road of scale, Yin Cheng International started late. 20/kloc-in may, 2008, Yin Cheng international announced that the first sales target of the company's five-year plan was 20 billion yuan. In the words of President Ma, "the sales in 20 18 will be around 20 billion, and it will stand firm at 50 billion in four or five years". Unfortunately, the sales of Yin Cheng International in 20 18 was only 9.54 billion yuan, and the target completion rate was 48%, which was less than half of the sales target. A year later, Yin Cheng International missed the sales target of 20 billion yuan again.

2. According to the data, in 20 19, Yin Cheng International achieved sales of about198.2 billion yuan and sales area of about1/29,000 square meters, with year-on-year growth rates of 107.7% and125 respectively. At first glance, Silver City International, which wants to turn the tide, just lacks some luck, but this is not the case. By the end of 20 18, the total construction area of Yin Cheng international equity land reserve was about 3.437 million cubic meters, and the total inventory was only195.22 million yuan. In 20 19, the total construction area of its equity land reserve increased to 4,303,700 cubic meters, with a total inventory of 22,394 million yuan. In terms of the area of developed properties and properties for sale, in 20 19, the area of Yin Cheng international developed properties decreased by 6.3% to 2.585 million square meters, while the area for sale increased by 98.7% to 577,000 square meters. The sum of the two is not much different from 20 18, with a slight increase of 4. 1%.

3. On the one hand, the large increase in the area for sale is due to the gradual completion of project construction; On the other hand, the area for sale is overstocked. This means that Yin Cheng International failed to achieve its performance target, which is undoubtedly worse for the operating cash flow. Faced with the epidemic in 2020, Yin Cheng International, like many of its peers, turned conservative and lowered its sales target from 30% to 20% in 2020, which is about 24 billion yuan. However, it failed to break through the 20 billion mark for two consecutive years, and Yin Cheng International still has a long way to go to achieve its sales target of 50 billion in the remaining three years. Individual cities are highly dependent, and new cities are not deeply cultivated. Yin Cheng International, which started in Nanjing, set the layout strategy of "basing on Nanjing, deepening the Yangtze River Delta and radiating the metropolitan area" before listing.

4. Judging from the current size of Yin Cheng International, it is undoubtedly wise to focus on the high-quality cities around the base camp and gradually expand its influence in the Yangtze River Delta through the step of "settling down and ploughing deeply" instead of blindly pursuing the national layout. After nearly three years of expansion, the number of cities that contributed to Yin Cheng's international sales increased from two in 20 17 to nine in 20 19. In 20 17, Yin Cheng International only sold in Nanjing and Wuxi. A year later, Suzhou, Zhenjiang and Maanshan were added. 20 19 added Hangzhou, Taizhou, Xuzhou and Hefei. However, getting out of the comfort zone often means meeting a higher entry threshold. Although Yin Cheng International has made some achievements in regional expansion, its deep cultivation is obviously insufficient. In 20 19 years, among the sales of Yin Cheng International198.2 billion yuan, the sales of Nanjing single city increased by 127. 1% year-on-year, reaching1/kloc-0.43 billion yuan, with a contribution rate of 57.7%. Wuxi is also a key city in Yin Cheng's early international layout, with its sales increasing slightly by 9.5% year-on-year to 2.82 billion yuan, and the contribution rate of the new city after diversion decreased from 27.0% to 14.2%. Roughly estimated, the contribution rate of these two cities is about 7 1.9%, and that of the other seven cities is 28. 1%. Among the other seven new cities, except Suzhou and Hangzhou, the sales of other cities did not exceed 654.38 billion yuan. Specifically, Yin Cheng International achieved sales of 65.438+39 billion yuan in the Soviet Union, with a contribution rate of about 7.0%. Hangzhou's sales reached 65.438+0.59 billion yuan, accounting for about 8.0% of the total. In Zhenjiang and Maanshan, Yin Cheng International even experienced a decline in sales. During the period, Zhenjiang and Maanshan contributed about 630 million yuan and 340 million yuan respectively, down 20.9% and 6.9% year-on-year. The former is mainly due to the decline in sales area, while the latter is mainly due to the decline in average sales price.