202 1 how should the fund be laid out?

202 1 how should the fund be laid out? I. 202 1 Rough Market Forecast

Market analysis mainly starts from three aspects:

1, policy orientation

2. External environment

3. Internal environment

First of all, we must analyze the policy. Decision makers are basically based on the internal and external environment. Because China's think tanks are really strong, please don't doubt their level. It's hard to make mistakes in the general direction.

Funds and A shares, macroscopically speaking, are a large part of the money earned by liquidity and currency issuance, that is, how much money is there in the market.

For example, 20 18, no matter how good your fund manager is, he will lose money, but he will lose more than anyone else. If he survives 20 18, then 20 19 and most of the year in 2020 will be made with loose money, so you will rarely see any fund lose money this year, just 20 19.

Keywords "policy does not turn sharply"

Chinese is really a profound meaning. For this sentence, I remember there are many opinions in the circle. Personally, I think that if the policy does not turn sharply, it means "it will turn", just depending on when it will turn.

When to switch mainly depends on the recovery of economic indicators and external changes, so this is a variable, which is difficult for any economist to predict. The best way is to watch the news broadcast and click on the central bank's WeChat and official website in real time.

If there are signs of turning, we should gradually reduce our positions.

At present, I think the main factors that will not turn sharply are the following. On the contrary, if we restore the following points, we need to be cautious:

1, the external environment, the epidemic continues to spread, if the vaccine is calculated according to the current production capacity, it will not be covered on a large scale until at least the middle of 20021year, and then the effectiveness of the vaccine will be considered. What if the virus mutation is too awesome? In the meantime, large-scale printing of money will certainly not stop. Why the US stock market is so fierce this year is mainly caused by liquidity. If the epidemic eases next year, US stocks will return to rationality. American imperialists are in India. Are we just waiting to die?

2. The exposure of financial crisis is often lagging behind. In 2020, it may be suppressed by many means, but it does not mean that it will not break out. I won't elaborate on what it is this time.

3. Some economic data are not ideal. The nominal GDP growth rate will be at a high level in the first two quarters of 20021,but the actual GDP level is still difficult to reach or exceed the pre-epidemic level. As of the fourth quarter, the zero social growth only recovered to 4.8% year-on-year, which is still far from the 8% before the epidemic.

Therefore, our decision makers began to study various coping policies.

First of all, at the Central Economic Work Conference, CICC made a keyword statistics, which I think is obvious.