Close 300 stores, Haidilao bowed his head.

Editor | Hu

Title map | Haidilao official micro

| zero statuslt lt (id: lingtai _ lt)

On June 2 1 this year, after # Haidilao's market value evaporated by more than HK$ 240 billion # boarded the hot search in Weibo, Zero State LT (ID: Lingtai _ LT) followed up an article "Haidilao Falling into the Sea".

At that time, the evaluation we gave was that after the stock price and market value both fell, it was the performance of Haidilao bubble and returned to the normal value cycle. According to Bloomberg data,1999 was the high-speed growth period of Starbucks in 2007, and the valuation center was 57 times. The valuation center of Haidilao in recent three years is about 242 times, so although the market value is halved, it only returns the price-earnings ratio of Haidilao to a relatively normal high level. After all, Haidilao has passed the dividend period brought by rapid expansion. What needs to be done is to let rationality return to its place under the present situation of the whole catering industry.

According to the data of Haidilao Annual Report, the turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier and second-tier cities in 20 19 was 4.7/4.9 times/day respectively, which was 0.4 times/day lower than that in 20 18+5.3 times/day. In 2020, the overall turnover rate of Haidilao restaurant was 3.5 times/day; At the beginning of 20021May, insiders of the company revealed to brokers that the turnover rate of restaurant staff in April was less than 3 times/day. At that time, according to the calculation of Guo Xin Securities, the breakeven line of Haidilao single store was 3 times/day. Therefore, falling below 3 times/day also means that Haidilao single store is in a state of loss or meager profit.

Five months later, Haidilao stepped up its pace of contraction.

1 1.5 In the evening, Haidilao officially announced that it would gradually close about 300 stores that failed to meet expectations by 200211February 3 1. According to the announcement, the store was closed due to the rapid expansion strategy formulated by the company in 20 19, and the store location was wrong.

Announcement of Haidilao Closing Store (Photo: Haidilao Guan Wei)

In addition, Haidilao announced that it will launch the "Woodpecker" plan-shrinking the pace of business expansion of the Group. Yang Lijuan, executive director and deputy CEO of Haidilao, is fully responsible for the woodpecker project. The plan aims to further improve the company's operating conditions.

0 1

Citigroup's research report pointed out that Haidilao intends to slow down the pace of opening stores to ease the financial and operational pressure brought about by the rapid expansion since the second half of 20 19. The restructuring plan will boost the turntable rating of existing branches next year, downgrade the rating to "neutral" and lower the target price from HK$ 30.3 to HK$ 23.8. CMB Securities also gave Haidilao a "neutral" rating, and its target price dropped to HK$ 65,438+08.30.

Of course, the voice of singing bad about Haidilao began to break out. For example, the retreat of the king of hot pot, the 30-year crisis in Haidilao ahead of schedule, and the severe winter in the catering industry ... and so on, from the announcement of the closure of 200 stores by Xiabu Xiabu (founded in 1998) to the large-scale contraction of Haidilao, the pessimism permeating the catering industry has been continuously amplified.

Once the king of hot pot, nearly 20% of the stores are closed now, which can't help but make people stunned. We should know that there were only about 360 stores in Haidilao during the period of 20 18. From 20 19 to 202 1 year, there were 15 1 stores, accounting for the total number of stores in Haidilao (1year. That is to say, the number of new stores (299) in the first half of 20021is close to the total number of stores opened by founder Zhang Yong 14.

This means that Haidilao will open 1.5 stores every day on average. The sequela of the crazy shop opening met the epidemic black swan and began to enlarge. The most intuitive embodiment is the market value. Its share price has dropped from HK$ 82 at the beginning of the year to HK$ 2 1. The relative peak value fell by nearly 75%, and the market value of 10 month evaporated by about 330 billion.

Behind the crazy shop opening is the increasing cost and decreasing transaction rate.

According to the statistics of Netease Wenchuang, in 2020, the cost of raw materials and consumables, personnel costs, property rent and related expenses, water and electricity costs will all increase. Compared with 20 19, the turnover rate in 2020 continued to decrease, including restaurants in first-,second-and third-tier cities, Chinese mainland and Chinese mainland, and the overall situation dropped from 4.8 times/day in 20 19 to 3.5 times/day in 2020.

Haidilao's large-scale closing of the store made an inspiring introspection. Courage is commendable. He refused to be diagnosed by the mythical Haidilao and began to repair his health, which undoubtedly gave other players in the industry a good start. The reasons behind this are also worth thinking about.

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Price may be one of the reasons why these shops have shrunk.

In April 2020, after Haidilao resumed work, food prices rose by 6%, which triggered a heated discussion. Subsequently, Haidilao issued a letter of apology, saying that the price increase was the wrong decision of the company's management, and the food price of Chinese mainland stores returned to the standard before the store closed on126 of that year. However, some consumers don't pay the bill, and say that if they eat a hot pot in Haidilao, as long as they order two more dishes of meat, the per capita consumption will go straight to 150 yuan. Some netizens said that the sea bottom fishing dish is expensive and the weight is small, and the average price is 150 yuan, which is really expensive.

Doubts can be described as one after another.

Maybe everyone likes to spend more than expected before the epidemic, not to mention per capita 150 yuan. Even restaurants whose per capita income exceeds that of 300 yuan are doing well. But after the epidemic, these so-called high-end restaurants are often the first to close down. After all, after the epidemic, everyone's consumption concept has changed, from advanced consumption to rational consumption. Those young people who are burdened with car loans and mortgages are also beginning to realize the importance of cash flow-they are beginning to save money and pursue cost performance.

Therefore, after the epidemic, the per capita business of Honey Snow Ice City in 6 yuan began to flourish, and the per capita business of tea enjoyment in 30 yuan began to decline. This is the signal that everyone sent to the consumer industry after the epidemic-the pursuit of cost-effective, healthy and safe food. Unfortunately, Haidilao did not see this change and did not adjust its strategy in time.

Let's take a look at the service of Haidilao, which is a sign of Haidilao's start. Haidilao has previously issued a rhetoric, "Only you can't think of it, no Haidilao can't do it", and the service beyond expectations has brought surprises beyond expectations to consumers. However, more and more people are complaining about the "excessive service" of Haidilao, especially for customers with social phobia. When they go to Haidilao to eat hot pot, they have to pay for it themselves and bear social pressure.

Many customers said that although good service focuses on customer performance, everything should be balanced. Too much emphasis on service will make people ignore the taste. After all, taste is the foundation of a hotel. Haidilao seems to be slowly realizing this problem. In the official announcement, the problem of corporate culture was mentioned: "over-trust in KPI indicators linked to interests and lack of corporate culture construction". Obviously, blind expansion and neglect of corporate culture construction are also important reasons for the frequent problems of fishing in the sea.

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But at the same time, the epidemic closed a door for catering enterprises, but opened a window for fast food enterprises. At the end of 2020, the data of "National Taste in 2020" released by Tmall showed that convenient fast food became one of the six annual food trends in 2020. In 2020, the sales volume of semi-finished vegetables will increase by11%year-on-year; The sales of new convenience foods such as self-heating hot pot on Tmall increased by more than 50%. This is undoubtedly having an impact on offline stores such as Haidilao.

Consumers who have never touched the spring water and now become fast food experts are gradually abandoning Haidilao and flocking to other catering brands. Haidilao has also made positive changes, launching many brands of Haidilao, and entering the fast food industry-U Ding maocai, Qiaoqiao's powder and fishing pie are all noodles ... More than a dozen sideline brands, and Haidilao noodle restaurant even opened a tea window.

However, some insiders pointed out that frequent playing the second yuan card is a last resort for Haidilao to cope with the decline in turnover rate, which also proves that its growth is constantly showing a weak momentum. On the other hand, when colleagues are tightening granaries for the winter, Haidilao is constantly challenging consumers' reputation of copying vegetables, selling expired tofu pudding and shrinking their stomachs.

If we say that the high-speed development of Haidilao is like a huge ship that speeds up wildly, it really needs to be buffered and replenished at the epidemic stalls in order to have a rest and make better adjustments.