Everyone is saying that there is a serious outflow of people from the county seat, so we should build more houses and sell cabbage in the future, right?

I will. The economic development and population structure of the county determine the demand for housing. At present, most county economies are developing slowly and there are no attractive development projects. The population is mainly local people: civil servants, teachers, doctors, private entrepreneurs, individual industrial and commercial households, etc. The foreign population is very small. Locals don't lack houses, some have multiple houses and won't buy houses at all. The only thing that needs a house is the newly added foreign population, and there is no such person in the county. Where do they get their purchasing power?

In fact, the county should not engage in real estate development at all. There is no shortage of houses, and there will be more once they are built. The vacancy rate will be higher and higher, completely saturated with the real estate market, resulting in a sharp drop in house prices until the price of cabbage.

The population around the county is mainly farmers. They have no ability at all, and there is no need to buy a house in the county. They can't work in the fields during the day and sleep in the county at night, can they? Some young people keep up with the joneses, and some buy wedding rooms in the county town to show off. After getting married, they felt that life was inconvenient and quickly moved back to the countryside, and the building was vacant.

At present, the vacancy rate of some small counties is above 40, and no one cares about the house. It can be said that there is a price but no market. In fact, no one wants money. As we all know, a house is used for living. If you don't live, it's just a waste. In case property tax and vacant tax are levied one day, there will be expenses.

At present, the phenomenon of population outflow in county-level cities in China is really serious, especially if it can be visited in half an hour. The reason is that the industrial structure of county-level cities cannot meet the employment needs of the younger generation. After receiving higher education, young people all want to make great achievements in big cities, which invisibly stimulates the development of real estate in big cities, and the corresponding real estate in county-level cities will gradually decline. Although the emergence of cabbage prices in the future is indeed exaggerated, as far as the current development trend is concerned, in the future,

Fifty years ago, young people got married and had children, and most of them built their own houses in the village. Even if you work outside, you rarely buy a house in the county. However, from 20 to 30 years ago, this trend completely changed. When talking about marriage, whether there was real estate in the county, coupled with the low fertility rate, most of the families now are only children. In order to improve the educational resources of the next generation, parents also tried their best to settle in the county. Therefore, in the past 20 years, China's urban real estate development. Simply put, it is the transition line between rural areas, county towns, prefecture-level cities and central cities. At present, the transition from rural to county is about to be completed, and the next step is the transition from county to prefecture-level city.

Many people may not believe it, saying that the cost of living in big cities is high, and many young people have begun to return to their hometown. However, such groups are really a minority. It is said that water flows downwards and people go upwards. Say something ugly. Those who return to their hometown are often people who have not developed well in big cities. As long as they have opened up a world in big cities, few people are willing to give up easily. Did they really give up their careers in big cities to support their parents? Moreover, in order to let their children settle in the county, the parents of the previous generation did not hesitate to spend all their savings and even borrowed money for the whole family, which continued to the next generation. 00 a.m. and 10. When they grow up, parents born after 1980s will definitely try their best to let them settle in prefecture-level cities with better resources. The rural housing of the previous generation has been abandoned, so the only thing that can be abandoned in this generation is the county-level house, so the scale of prefecture-level cities will only increase in the future.

To put it bluntly, this is somewhat similar to the stock market. People are used to buying up and not buying down. When the demand is no longer strong, the house price in the county will lose the room for rising, and as the young people in the county go further and no one takes over, it will usher in the sale of the county real estate. Under the herd effect, the lower the price, the less people buy it. This phenomenon will first appear in remote areas such as northeast and northwest, and then gradually transition to developed cities in the east. Finally, after a period of transition from county to prefecture-level city, the further transition is the transition from prefecture-level city to big city or central city. Therefore, many prefecture-level cities are scrambling to build themselves into "national central cities" in order to have sustainable competitiveness in the future. But if there is no miracle in the past 50 years, the situation they face 50 years later may be similar to that of the county seat. The present Northeast is a typical case.

The above is purely a personal opinion. Welcome to click on the attention and leave a message for discussion.

1, no matter how it flows out, the county will always be the most populous reservoir. There are only four megacities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and there are only 393 prefecture-level cities, while there are 1323 counties, 965 municipal districts and 387 county-level cities. That is to say, there are 2675 county-level units, which is 2675. In other words, at least 654.38 billion people live in towns and villages at or below the county level, and the overall population distribution is reasonable and even, instead of just a few big cities overloaded, crowded people, crowded cars, exploding capacity and population blowout;

2. Therefore, doing a good job in county economy and beautiful countryside is the only way for China's future economic development, and it is also the only way for its late-developing advantages. Europe is so rich, it is the region with the most developed market economy and the highest per capita income level, while European countries are generally small, many of which are like our prefecture-level cities and counties; The most developed cores of these developed countries are not international metropolises such as London, Paris, Rome, Berlin and Frankfurt. Many world-famous brands, well-known enterprises and century-old shops are actually in some small towns in Europe. Others have persisted from beginning to end for several generations. That's the best part.

3. Then, China's current population outflow, the population flowing to big cities, the southeast coast, the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, is actually a tidal phenomenon in the early stage of economic development, and it is a tidal phenomenon when the wind and waves are heavy. It is not routine and ordinary, and it should have happened for a long time; If we all set up factories on Chang 'an Avenue and build houses on Nanjing Road, and put the low end of the industrial chain in big cities and megacities, the functions of the city's commerce, capital and information distribution center will be completely weakened, and the city will not be a city. To put it bluntly, a city is a place for business and a political and cultural center, not a center for manufacturing and artisans.

4. So, a few years later, the city returned to the city standard and the county returned to the county standard. After the realization of agricultural mechanization and industrialization, a large number of agricultural products will be processed and traded, and the primary processing and low-end manufacturing of industrial products will naturally be concentrated in the county. County will become the bottom of the pyramid of industrial and agricultural production and development, with the largest population, even if 800 million farmers become citizens. Should also be the first choice is concentrated in the county, high-end, master's degree or above to the city, more houses are built, there must be huge space to accommodate the population of low-end manufacturing and agricultural supporting industries, and cabbage prices will never be sold in the future.

Well, ghosts are involved! ! !

When our county was around 10, the population of the county was still more than 10, and the total population was still more than 600,000. At that time, there were only eight roads, and you could buy a house for hundreds of thousands. Now the county has a population of 80,000. The total population is not clear, but I went to the surrounding villages and mountains and found that many households were empty or only the elderly were at home. Five roads have been expanded, and house prices have risen five or six times. Houses were built between these extensions. In the west, there are three state-owned factories that sell more houses. However, in the past two years, there has been a tendency to sell them. The newly built houses in the east are close to the countryside, and the occupancy rate is very low. It has been repaired for three or four years, and the occupancy rate is less than half. This is the result of the school relocation. Evergrande once wanted to raise the house price by 1000 yuan, but as a result, few people bought it and had to lower it again. At present, there are a large number of new houses and vacant houses in the county, but house prices remain high. After a few years, the population will decline further, and the income will not increase. Will the house price still be so high?

My staff turnover is also very serious. Our village has 19 Tuange, and other places have 14. Basically, everyone stays in the village for about 15 days a year, so less than half of people buy houses in county-level cities, which is quite expensive. The worst is about 14 thousand, usually 20 thousand How many lines do you think there are in county-level cities? I think the third line is definitely not, and it is intensive construction. But it did not fall, and the increase was not big. I may buy it in the future. I can't help it Although there are many houses in my village, my children get married. It seems that the whole atmosphere of rural houses is disdainful. The first item introduced by the blind date matchmaker is to ask if there is a house in the county. If the premise is not met, it will be gone. The occupancy rate will be very low and the rental income will be very low. However, house prices are basically difficult to come down. It seems to be the same as a person's facade. Whether it is useful or not, it is a feeling of losing money by throwing it there.

It can be said responsibly that except for a few places, cabbage prices will not appear in most counties in the future, and of course, there will be no such situation as some people brag about. Let me talk about the specific reasons first.

Let's talk about fundamentals first.

Supported by the dividend of rapid urbanization in previous years, the county town caused a short-term imbalance between supply and demand, which experienced a rapid increase from 20 16 to 20 19. There are also many county towns in the country with house prices exceeding 10,000 yuan. From a fundamental point of view, housing prices in some counties are indeed too high. Therefore, since 2020, with the urbanization entering a relatively stable stage and the previous increase overdrawing part of the purchasing power in the future, the housing prices in many third-and fourth-tier cities have been sideways or slightly decreased to varying degrees. This is the current fundamentals. Indeed, some counties with average economic development level have appeared sideways or declined.

Let's talk about policy orientation first

At present, real estate is a very important pillar industry in China, which has a far-reaching impact on the country's finance and employment. At present, the policies put forward by the state are "no housing speculation" and "stable and healthy development of the real estate market". From the policy point of view, the country hopes that the market will be stable and there will be no more ups and downs, because ups and downs will lead to economic collapse, which we cannot afford. Therefore, the state takes various effective measures to stabilize the real estate market and stabilize the fluctuation of house prices in a reasonable space.

Let's talk about the development of money and real estate market.

Runtu believes that as long as the economy can continue to develop, it will inevitably be accompanied by a certain degree of inflation, that is, the value of assets may rise to a certain extent in a reasonable space to cope with a certain degree of currency depreciation caused by inflation.

In addition, the real estate industry itself is constantly developing. In the near future, the construction level, quality, living environment and intelligent level of houses may develop rapidly. With the improvement of housing functions, the relative value may be higher and higher. The future house may not be what you see now.

From these two aspects, there is no possibility that the house will continue to fall.

Finally, say the conclusion

All those who say that considering fundamentals, policies, finance and other aspects, advocating that houses will become cabbage prices and will rise to the sky in the future are all big fools. According to the current situation, what we need is that the real estate enters a relatively stable state, allowing fluctuations, but not allowing inflation and collapse. We are a socialist market economy. Under the strong control of the government, house prices will definitely stabilize and become an important part of the healthy development of our economy.

Personal opinions, if any, are welcome to correct me. If you like, pay attention to the leap soil. If there are real estate or property problems, you can settle them.

Yes, because people will leave their jobs and a better life! If the medical conditions in the county are good, you can build a pension city! Only in this way can we save the house price in the county!

Not necessarily. If it is in the one-hour economic circle of the central city, the house price will rise steadily, because such a county town is very attractive to the surrounding rural people, and it is certain that the countryside is still not as convenient as the life, survival and environment in the county town.

Other places are not easy to answer. I'll just say my hometown My hometown is a small town. There used to be a lot of people there. Although the place is small, it is well built, with many buildings, squares and parks. Now there are almost half of the people, and almost all of them are elderly people. As long as you go to college, you won't go back. When they are busy with farming, there are not many people in the street at ordinary times, even during the New Year, because there are very few people.