Real estate gdp index

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the report card of economic development in 2020 has already been released. According to preliminary calculation, the GDP in 2020 will be nearly1010.6 trillion yuan, up by 2.3% over the previous year. It is predicted that China will become the only major economy with positive economic growth in the world.

In the context of the global epidemic, it is very commendable that China's economy has taken the lead in picking up and achieving positive growth.

Most people are concerned about the bright data that China's economy has exceeded 100 billion for the first time. Few people find that the added value of the real estate industry contributed nearly 6,963.2 billion yuan, accounting for 7.3% of China's1010.6 trillion yuan GDP. This figure exceeds many industries such as construction, transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering, leasing and business services.

At the same time, the GDP created by real estate in 2020 is 1.96 times that of information transmission, software and information technology services.

However, this is not all.

0 1

The proportion of real estate in GDP has increased by 78% in 20 years.

In 2000, the added value of real estate in China was only 4 1, 4 1 100 million yuan, accounting for 4. 1% of GDP in that year. Twenty years later, the added value of China real estate jumped to 7,455.3 billion yuan in 2020, accounting for 7.3% of GDP. In the past 20 years, the added value of real estate has increased by 704,654,380.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 78%.

In contrast, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing's GDP in 20 19 was 3537 10 billion yuan, and Shanghai's GDP was 3815.5 billion yuan. The added value of the real estate industry in 20 years was nearly twice that of Beijing in 20 19 years. In 2020, the added value of real estate has exceeded the sum of 20 19 GDP of Beijing and Shanghai. Looking at the country, among all regions, Beijing and Shanghai have the highest GDP.

Data don't lie. In the past 20 years, the development speed and added value of the real estate industry are shocking. Specifically:

2000-2020? What is the ratio of the added value of real estate to GDP? Source: National Bureau of Statistics.

After the housing reform from 65438 to 0998, the vitality of the real estate market increased, and the pulling effect of real estate on the national economy became increasingly obvious. According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics, in 200 1 year, the added value of real estate in China was 470.6 billion yuan, accounting for 4.2% of GDP in that year.

According to relevant government documents, on August 12, 2003, the Notice of the State Council on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market was officially released, which stated that "the real estate industry has become a pillar industry of the national economy with high correlation and strong driving force".

The key role of real estate in the national economy has been officially recognized by the government. In 2003, the added value of real estate rose to 6 157 billion yuan, accounting for 4.5% of GDP in that year.

In 2008, in order to get out of the shadow of the economic crisis, the state released 4 trillion yuan of water to boost China's economy. The added value of real estate jumped to 1876 1 100 million yuan in 2009, an increase of 29% over the previous year. In 2009, the added value of real estate accounted for 5.4% of GDP, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over 2008.

Since then, the development of real estate is in full swing. The added value of real estate exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 20 10, 3 trillion yuan in 20 12 and 4 trillion yuan in 20 15.

The added value of real estate increased from 1 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan in five years, from 2 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan in three years, and from 5 trillion yuan to 7 trillion yuan in four years. The newly created value of real estate is growing faster and faster.

02

Under the background of "housing is not speculation", why is the proportion of real estate in GDP getting higher and higher?

At the end of 20 16, after the central economic work conference formally put forward "no speculation in housing", local regulation became stricter, the property market policy was constantly patched, and the real estate market entered a long sideways period.

However, unlike the market fundamentals, the added value of real estate in 20 16 was 4,996.9 billion yuan, and this figure rose to 5,708.6 billion yuan in 20 17. In the next three years, the added value of real estate is still rising. By 2020, the added value of real estate will rise to 7,455.3 billion yuan. The proportion of real estate added value in GDP has also increased from 6.7% in 20 16 to 7.3% in 2020.

The central government has repeatedly applied for "no real estate speculation" and resolutely curbed the rise in housing prices; Experts have repeatedly voiced that China's economy can no longer be kidnapped by real estate, calling for finding new economic growth points; Housing enterprises shout "live", abolish poorly managed areas, sell project equity, find war investment and reduce debt. In this context, why does the total value of real estate growth and its proportion in GDP increase instead of decrease?

The main reason is that the housing demand in China has not been fully met. According to the data of Evergrande Research Institute, in 20 17, the per capita housing area in China was only 23 square meters, while in the same period, the per capita housing area in the United States was 67 square meters, Germany and France exceeded 38 square meters, and the per capita housing area in Japan and South Korea reached 33 and 28 square meters respectively. Compared with the major economies in the world, the per capita housing area in China still has room for growth.

According to the urbanization experience of developed countries, the period of accelerating urbanization is that the urbanization rate is between 30% and 70%. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 20 19, the urbanization rate in China was 60.6%, and there was still room for accelerating the development of urbanization near 10%.

20 10-20 19 China urbanization rate change data source: government, official media, etc.

From the reality of our country, the "war of grabbing people" in various places, the continuous entry of migrant workers into cities, the population flow brought about by the liberalization of household registration, the development of metropolitan areas and the expansion of the policy of both rent and purchase will continue to help enhance the growth value of real estate. According to the current annual urbanization growth rate of about 1%, China real estate will continue to contribute to GDP growth steadily until 2029.

In addition, real estate is still a pillar industry in China. In recent years, the state has strictly regulated real estate, and the network of regulation has become more and more detailed. Its fundamental purpose is not to stop the development of the real estate industry. The essence of the regulation of the property market is to "correct the deviation", to correct the excessive rise of housing prices, the frequent overheating of the property market, the constant chaos of real estate speculation and so on.

The spontaneous adjustment of the property market is invalid. If there is no policy intervention, it is likely to turn the property market into a tool of capital, and just need to fall into the predicament of no room to live in. Regulation only pulls real estate back to the road of "stable and healthy development", and does not deny the pillar role of real estate in the national economy. Stimulating GDP growth is also the significance of pillar industries.

03

The contribution of real estate to GDP is far more than 7.3%.

Not long ago, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in 2020, China's real estate development investment 14. 14 trillion yuan, an increase of 7% compared with 20 19 years; The sales of commercial housing was 654.38+73.6 million yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year, reaching a record high. Whether it is real estate development investment or commercial housing sales, it is much higher than the real estate added value of 746 million yuan in the same period. This is because the statistical caliber is different.

According to the production method, the added value of real estate is equal to the difference between total output and intermediate input; According to the income method, the added value is equal to the sum of workers' remuneration and net product tax, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus; According to the expenditure method, total capital formation and net exports of goods and services are added to final consumption expenditure/actual final consumption.

The added value of real estate includes not only the real estate development activities of housing enterprises, but also the rental income of existing self-owned houses, the added value of housing brokerage and agency activities and so on.

It should be noted that the income of real estate enterprises used to purchase land does not belong to the calculation category of real estate added value. Because according to the national economic accounting system 20 16, the "production" of "GDP" refers to the process of transforming one commodity and service into another by using labor and capital under the responsibility, control and management of institutions and units. Land transactions do not involve the transformation of goods and services, so they will not be included in GDP.

In fact, it is not enough to evaluate the contribution of real estate to China's economy only from the ratio of real estate added value to GDP. In China's GDP, the direct and indirect contribution rate of real estate is far more than 7.3%.

All business activities of real estate are carried out on the basis of land use rights. Land transfer income has become an important part of government revenue. In recent years, there have been endless discussions about "land finance", and all walks of life are calling for reform, but up to now, land transfer income is still the main source of budget income of government funds.

According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, in 20201-1month, the national general public budget revenue was16.95 million yuan, and the national government fund budget revenue was 727 million yuan, of which the state-owned land use right transfer revenue was 65 1 10,000 yuan.

In the fiscal revenue of1-1in 2020, the revenue from land transfer accounted for 26.88%, that is, land transfer brought more than 1/4 of the fiscal revenue to the government. These revenues are used to build infrastructure and public construction projects, such as roads, bridges, schools and hospitals, and continue to help GDP growth.

In addition, from the financing of housing enterprises, housing construction, to decoration, home appliances, and then to property, housing, real estate is connected in series to form a huge industrial network. IFinD Industrial Chain Center has compiled a panoramic view of the real estate industrial chain. As can be seen from the figure, there are many industries related to real estate, including financial institutions, construction machinery, building materials, steel, chemicals, home improvement, property services, home appliances and even automobiles.

Panorama of the whole industrial chain of real estate Source: IfinD Industrial Chain Center

It also includes commercial real estate such as pre-planning and design, surveying and mapping exploration, quality inspection and security inspection, medium-term water supply, heating and power supply, garbage disposal, later community facilities, shopping centers, etc.

In China, real estate has a high correlation with many industries, which has promoted the development of dozens of industries. Its direct and indirect contribution to GDP is difficult to quantify, but it must not be underestimated.