How to analyze the real estate market

First, the real estate market analysis

Level and content

Analysis of real estate market level. Real estate market analysis can be divided into the following three levels due to different requirements in depth and content. Each subsequent analysis can be based on the information provided by the previous analysis, and there is a logical connection between them.

Regional real estate market analysis is a comprehensive analysis of all property types and the overall regional economy in the market research area, as well as the total supply and demand of the total real estate market and various professional markets. It focuses on regional economic analysis, location analysis and market profile analysis.

Professional real estate market analysis is the supply and demand analysis of professional market (residential, commercial or industrial property) or professional sub-market in the market research area, which is to estimate and predict the supply and demand of specific sub-market separately on the basis of the previous analysis. It focuses on the supply and demand analysis of the professional market.

The real estate market analysis of the project is based on the first two levels, analyzing the competitiveness of a specific project in a specific location, predicting the sales rate and market share at a certain price and characteristics, and predicting the rent and price, absorption capacity and absorption plan of the project. The focus is on project competitiveness analysis and so on.

The content of real estate market analysis. The content of real estate market analysis is complex and diverse, which can be summarized into six main contents. All kinds of real estate market analysis requirements have different emphases and different contents, and some may only include a few of them.

Regional economic analysis is to study the regional economic environment, which includes: ① the basic trend analysis of regional economy. ② Analysis of the development trend of regional basic industries. The analysis of the real estate market can adopt the research results of the planning department and other institutions on the regional economic situation, without completely analyzing the regional economic situation. However, it needs to be adjusted according to the actual situation during the analysis to reflect the latest information. Of course, if you can't find the forecast information of public institutions, you need to make some independent forecasts.

Location analysis is the best use analysis of a place, and it is the main analysis content when making investment decisions. Need to compare the location of the project plot with similar locations to find market opportunities; When there are two or more optional uses, it is necessary to analyze and compare each possible use. This refers to the macro-level analysis, not the whole content of market analysis in the feasibility study of macro-and micro-comparison.

The competition analysis of the project includes: ① analyzing the legal, economic, location and accessibility characteristics of the target property. (2) according to the characteristics of the target property, select and investigate the competitive property. ③ Conduct competitive evaluation, determine the competitive characteristics of the target property, and predict the sales rate and market share (market share) of the project at a certain price and characteristics. It also contains three key points that need to be analyzed, namely, marketing suggestions, price and rent forecasts, and forecast absorption and absorption plans. Of course, every market analysis does not necessarily include.

All the points. Among them, the marketing suggestion is to study the competitive projects and apartment types with better sales, carry out the planning and design of the target property and product function positioning, find out the competitive advantages of the target property, put forward measures to strengthen its advantages and weaken its disadvantages, and point out its market risk sources.

Second, under different purposes.

Characteristics of real estate market analysis

Analysis of real estate market in investment decision. The goal of real estate project investment decision-making is to develop or invest in real estate projects that meet the target income requirements. The most important issues in decision-making are the choice of investment location and the grasp of investment opportunities. What it needs to do is to analyze the project real estate market. Among them, the decision of home investment should ensure the economic ability of the project, analyze the market prospect and project rent forecast. The decision-making of development and investment should determine the market demand and seek market opportunities, choose appropriate location and appropriate development opportunity, and ensure good market demand after project development.

Analysis of real estate market in project financing. In real estate project financing, it is necessary to evaluate the market of the project, and predict the sales income of the project as the main source to measure the loan repayment. In the process of financing, developers need to take the real estate market analysis as an important part of the project feasibility analysis to provide reasons for applying for loans. Financial institutions use the results of real estate market analysis to evaluate the investment potential of the project, ensure a good market foundation for loans and investments, and ensure the economic capacity of the project, which is an important basis for loan project selection.

Analysis of real estate market in real estate securitization. In the process of real estate securitization, the purpose of real estate market analysis is to help appraisers reasonably determine the value of collateral, help securities companies to make market characterization, determine the combination of collateral, and price real estate securities. To provide investors with complete information about the mortgaged object, reflect the quality of the mortgaged object and the expected market income, and serve as the basis for investors to choose securities; Provide market prospect analysis of real estate for government guarantors and evaluation agencies, as a reference to analyze the actual value of securities and provide a basis for controlling the securities structure. In a word, the purpose of real estate market analysis of securitization service is complicated, and its fundamental focus is on the prospect of real estate market and the income or rate of return of project property.

Analysis of real estate market in real estate development. In the process of real estate development, developers should determine the direction according to the market demand, design or modify the investment strategy, guide the selected location, carry out product planning, design, quality, pricing and adjustment, obtain planning permission and government support, obtain the support of loans from financial institutions, and formulate reasonable marketing strategies to promote the success of project development. For example, after the completion of the project, provide them with an acceptable selling price and rent level in the market; According to the characteristics of the project, tap the highlights and formulate marketing strategies accordingly; In addition, market analysis has also improved the real estate enterprises' grasp of market conditions, enhanced their competitiveness and adjusted their marketing strategies.

Analysis of real estate market in market macro-management. Macro-management of real estate market should grasp the changing law of supply and demand in real estate market in order to formulate relevant real estate industrial policies reasonably; Grasp the macro-economic situation, policy and legal environment, supply and demand situation of the real estate market, understand the overall macro-market of the real estate, so as to guide land planning and utilization, and reasonably control the quantity and structure of land development and land supply; Understand the supply and demand situation of real estate professional property, and provide basis for reasonable structural control of real estate; The macro-management department of real estate should also determine what kind of projects can be recognized by the public and understand the public's attitude towards planning and developing projects, so as to ensure that the new development meets the needs of the community and meets the needs of the public.

Third, ways to improve the effectiveness of real estate market analysis

Factors affecting the effectiveness of real estate market analysis. Through the systematic study of real estate market analysis, we can know that there are the following reasons that affect the effectiveness of market analysis: First, the analyst's grasp of the main points of real estate market analysis. Only by grasping the focus of market analysis according to the purpose of analysis can the analysis get to the point and reach a certain depth, without covering up the main analysis because of too much analysis content; The second is whether the logical relationship in the analysis process is reasonable; Thirdly, whether the analysis methods used in market analysis are appropriate; Fourth, whether the data of market analysis are sufficient and reliable. In the analysis of the real estate market, if one or more of the above reasons exist,

This situation will lead to unreasonable and invalid conclusions of market analysis.

Ways to improve the effectiveness of real estate market analysis. Generally speaking, in order to improve the effectiveness or credibility of real estate market analysis, we must first make clear the requirements of various real estate activities for real estate market analysis, clarify the focus of market analysis, and conduct targeted analysis. At the same time, it is required to adopt appropriate market analysis methods in the analysis process with strong arguments and clear conclusions. The specific requirements are: complete system, clear and reasonable logic; The data used in the report is targeted and there are comparisons between more than two data sources; Reasonable determination of demand parameters, unique research and analysis of the changing trend of key demand parameters, rather than simply calculating with unchanged parameters; When forecasting demand, measure the segmentation demand of market segments; In the analysis, we should analyze the competitive supply of market segments, rather than the supply of general built and under construction projects; The determination process of market share and absorption plan is reasonable and logical; The conclusion of market analysis is clear and its scope of application is clear, which can fully reflect the uncertainty faced by the conclusion of market analysis.