Some housing enterprises actively take land, and some housing enterprises transform to survive. The overall property market transaction will probably slow down in the future.

Recently, the transfer of five plots in Shenzhen has aroused great concern in the market, and many large housing enterprises have made frequent moves. At the same time, the survival or transformation of small and medium-sized housing enterprises is also being staged. In fact, since the beginning of the year, the regulatory policies of several cities have been adjusted, and the real estate market has picked up slightly. However, in the past two months, the property market sales market and land market in various places have heated up rapidly, and some cities have tightened the property market policy again. Jones Lang LaSalle believes that the "Xiaoyangchun" in the early stage of the property market is only a partial and slight recovery. Without further policy support, the overall property market transaction is likely to slow down in the future.

1

Large-scale housing enterprises are active in land acquisition, and the industry concentration is obvious.

Judging from the amount of land acquired from June 5438 to May, Country Garden, Sunac and Xincheng occupy the top three. According to the data of the Central Reference Institute, Country Garden took a large amount of land in May, with a total land acquisition of 65.8 billion yuan from May to May, ranking first in the land acquisition list. With the advantage of the first four months, Sunac ranked second in the list from June to May with a total amount of 65.3 billion yuan. The new town continues to maintain the third place, with a total land acquisition of 46 1 100 million yuan. TOP 10 enterprise1-The land acquired in May totaled 414.8 billion yuan, accounting for 35.8% of the TOP 100 enterprise; From June to May, the top 30 enterprises purchased 774.4 billion yuan of land, accounting for 66.8% of the top 100 enterprises. The advantages of leading real estate enterprises in obtaining land resources are undiminished, and the industry concentration is obvious. 1-may, the threshold for TOP 10 enterprises to acquire land is 28 1 100 million yuan. In May, Country Garden continued to maintain a large land acquisition, with a monthly land acquisition of 26.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.7%. Country Garden replenished its land resources at a high premium in May, and acquired land in Luoyang, Jiaxing, Yangzhou and other cities respectively, with a premium rate exceeding 100%, which shows its willingness to replenish its positions.

Recently, the land market has attracted more attention. Since June, Vanke has made frequent moves in the land market, even taking land at a high premium. According to the incomplete statistics of Leju Finance, during the week from June 17 to June 2 1 day, Vanke * * * took more than 8 cases of land, with a total land acquisition amount exceeding 10667 billion yuan. The land requisition area is mainly concentrated in the southern region, of which 5 cases are located in Chongqing. In addition, on June 2 1 day, Agile won the Beijing homestead for the first time, and Agile won the plot in Hexi District of Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone for 310.8 billion yuan, with a floor price of 39,625 yuan/square meter and a premium rate of 410.3%. On June 24th, Yuexiu won the plot of Jiangangshan in Baoan District, Shenzhen with a total price of 5.908 billion yuan and a floor price of 5,665,438 yuan +0.28 yuan/m2, and Yuexiu entered Shenzhen for the first time.

In this regard, Ke Rui said that the current land market differentiation is obvious. Although the land auction in some cities is hot and "high premium plots" frequently appear, it is not universal, and there are no large-scale housing enterprises in 20 16. The situation of "grabbing the king". Especially in the case of meeting the demand for covering positions and increasing the difficulty of land opening in the future, the investment rhythm of the top 100 real estate enterprises will further slow down. Moreover, judging from the recent policy regulation of hot cities, it is still necessary to be cautious in taking land in the future, and it is not advisable to blindly take land at high prices.

2

Some small and medium-sized housing enterprises have broken their arms in order to survive or transform.

While large-scale housing enterprises are actively taking land, some small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the problem of tight funds, some apply for bankruptcy, and some transfer part of the project equity to alleviate the liquidity problem in order to survive.

Recently, Yi Yin Group, the largest real estate enterprise in Ningbo, declared bankruptcy and applied for bankruptcy liquidation, with a debt of 50 billion yuan. Yi Yin pointed out in the announcement that since the beginning of this year, Yi Yin Group and Yi Yin Holdings have been facing a liquidity crisis. Although they have tried their best to make relevant plans and resolve debt risks through various channels, they still cannot completely get rid of their liquidity crisis.

Ge Yong, executive vice president of Taihe Group, recently said that after Taihe Group transferred the shares of Hangzhou Jiangcun, Nanchang Hu Yinmeng and Taihe Guangzhou Freight Yard, the total interest-bearing liabilities dropped significantly compared with the end of 20 18.

Yuetai Group, which "came back to life" under the liquidity crisis, recently held a press conference. Yang Shuping, chairman of the group, said that Yuetai Group transferred part of the equity of some of its projects to Shimao Group. This kind of transfer belongs to the current market normality of the real estate industry. In the future, we will take this cooperation with Shimao as an opportunity to comprehensively explore transformation and upgrading in the fields of characteristic real estate such as pension, health and industrial real estate. However, after Yuetai Group transferred different shares of its five real estate projects to Shimao Group, there are still many projects under construction and for sale at home and abroad, and there are still a lot of land reserves to be developed in key cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Cambodia. "In the current environment of tight real estate regulation and financing channels, small and medium-sized housing enterprises are facing great challenges. Yuetai Group will foster strengths and avoid weaknesses, actively transform, give full play to the transformation advantages of small and medium-sized enterprises, choose intensive cultivation in the fields of health, pension, industrial real estate, combine real estate development experience with emerging industries, and open up the market with a new cooperative development model. "

three

Financing may be further tightened, and housing enterprises will move overseas to issue bonds.

Financing channels are getting tighter and tighter. In May this year, the CBRC explicitly requested commercial banks, trusts, leasing and other financial institutions not to carry out real estate financing in violation of regulations. Then, at the beginning of June, it was reported that the regulatory authorities had brought some enterprises that actively acquired land with high premium into supervision, and were prepared to suspend Wang Di enterprises from issuing bonds and ABS. On June 13, Guo Shuqing, Chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission, directly pointed out the prevention of real estate investment at Lujiazui Forum. This also indicates that real estate regulation will not be relaxed in the future, and financing may be further tightened. According to Kerry's incomplete statistics, as of June 17, more than 10 real estate enterprises have issued and planned to issue overseas bonds, and the issuance scale is expected to exceed $3 billion. For example, Zhongnan Construction announced on June 1 1 that its overseas wholly-owned subsidiary had completed the issuance of $350 million priority unsecured fixed-rate bonds, and then South China City announced the successful issuance on June 12. In addition, Agile, Blu-ray Development, Xinhubao and Rongxin China also announced the completion of the issuance of US dollar bonds.

Ke Rui believes that the real estate credit policy will continue to tighten in the second half of 20 19. For housing enterprises, although the interest rate of overseas bond financing is relatively high, issuing overseas bonds is still a necessary way to maintain scale growth at a time when domestic financing is constantly tightening. How to seek further breakthroughs in financing channels and how to effectively reduce leverage and debt will be the main challenges for the further development of housing enterprises in the future.

four

The future regional integration "urban agglomeration" will accelerate its development.

First-and second-tier cities are still the focus of land acquisition by real estate enterprises, but they have returned to rationality. Judging from the recent Guangzhou land market, after several rounds of high-profile performance, from the auction of Panyu Donghuan Street homestead, there has been an "unpopular incident" in Conghua where a land was stopped and the land reserve price was sold. Xiao, chief analyst of Kerry Guangzhou, believes that this reflects that under the control policy of maintaining pressure, developers' land acquisition strategies are also trade-offs. Even popular cities will not blindly pursue high housing prices. In fact, judging from the transaction data of first-hand houses, there are still uncertainties in the "road to recovery" of the Guangzhou market this year. The most obvious evidence is that the transaction volume of first-hand houses in May and the first half of June turned from positive to negative year-on-year, ending the performance of "three consecutive years" in the first three months. In the first half of the year, the supply of residential land in Guangzhou was 5,279,400 ㎡, with a turnover of 4,370,000 ㎡, an increase of 2,500,000 ㎡ and 65,438+350,000 ㎡ respectively. According to the land supply plan of 20 19, there is still a considerable amount of land in Guangzhou in the second half of the year, which also gives a choice for real estate enterprises interested in entering Guangzhou.

Since the beginning of the year, the regulatory policies of several cities have been adjusted, and the real estate market has picked up slightly. However, in the past two months, some cities, such as Suzhou, have tightened the property market policy again in view of the rapid warming of the local property market and land market. Under the main tone of "stable land price, stable house price and stable expectation", the national housing market remained stable as a whole. Yao Yao, director of China Research Department of Jones Lang LaSalle, said: "In the short term, the growth rate of money supply remains stable, and there is limited room for policy relaxation in the property market, so it is unlikely that the overall transaction volume of the residential market will continue to grow. In the long run, the housing demand of cities with industrial upgrading prospects and sustained net population inflow will be strongly supported, especially the regional integration of' urban agglomerations' will accelerate development. "