The property market regulation policy continues to tighten, and hot cities are urgently patched.

The heat of the property market has not diminished, and local regulation has continued.

14 In September, Chengdu, which once set a record of nearly 60,000 people, issued "15 New Real Estate Policy" to crack down on speculation. In terms of housing policy, Chengdu has increased the proportion of homeless households in shed reform, in which the minimum priority ratio of shed reform has increased from 10% to 20%, and the minimum priority ratio of homeless households has increased from 50% to 60% of the remaining houses after shed reform.

Up to now, including Chengdu, a number of hot cities have introduced new policies to regulate the property market. According to incomplete statistics, since July this year, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Inner Mongolia, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuxi, Shenyang, Changzhou, Chengdu and other provinces and cities have successively introduced policies to tighten the regulation of the property market. At the same time, within two months, 16 city will accept the "window guidance" of the central government.

The sales price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August 14 released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities is generally stable. The sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in cities of each line increased slightly from the previous month, while the sales price of second-hand residential buildings in second-tier cities decreased from the previous month.

Property market regulation policy patching

On September 14, official website, the Chengdu Municipal Government issued the Notice of the General Office of Chengdu Municipal People's Government on Maintaining the Stable and Healthy Development of Chengdu's Real Estate Market, which adjusted the land market, financial and credit policies, leasing market and housing market.

A person in charge of a real estate company named Liu in Chengdu told CBN that Chengdu's property market regulation policies are similar to those in Hangzhou, and they have all increased their inclination towards households without housing. "The regulation of the property market in hot cities should be put in the first place as far as possible, and curbing real estate arbitrage should be a main logic of fine regulation." He said.

On September 12, Changzhou, a third-tier city, also began to implement new real estate control policies. For example, in the policy of restricting loans, the minimum down payment is 60% for families who already own a house and have not settled the purchase loan, and the regulation is no less than 50% for the second set of down payment in Shenyang. This is directly related to the continuous rise in housing prices in Changzhou. From the external data such as Ke Rui, except for the epidemic in February, the house price in Changzhou has dropped slightly this year. Since March, new houses have soared to 20,000 yuan/square meter, an increase of nearly 20%.

Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in July this year, the price of new houses in Yinchuan ranked first in the country, rising by 2% month-on-month, which is the first time that the price of new houses in Yinchuan rose month-on-month. On September 8, Yinchuan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau convened the Chamber of Commerce of Yinchuan Real Estate Market Regulation Association and issued a "price limit order" for the property market. For projects opened before September 1, the average selling price in September shall not be higher than that in August in the short term. Recently, Yinchuan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau will put forward suggestions on price adjustment for real estate development enterprises according to the average price recorded in August.

On September 4th, Hangzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market. Among them, in terms of the criteria for identifying houseless families, Hangzhou has made it clear that buyers who are unmarried and single over 30 years old and have no records of their own houses within the scope of the city's purchase restriction, and buyers who have been divorced for three years and have no records of their own houses within the scope of the city's purchase restriction can all be identified as houseless families.

Jaco, Dean of the Branch of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed that since July, various cities have been tightening their control policies, including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Shenzhen and Nanjing, and many other cities have introduced control measures, and the signal of tightening control is obvious. Judging from the housing prices in August, the decline of the national market fever has been reflected, but the upward trend of housing prices in first-tier cities continues.

A senior analyst in the real estate industry of a medium-sized brokerage in East China said that whether it is the recent urban discussion, the discussion of 12 housing enterprises, or the recent "three red lines" standard for housing enterprises financing, some cities such as Dongguan and Shenzhen have continuously patched up the regulation of the property market, reflecting the new characteristics of "precise regulation" of real estate policies.

"It is not that first-tier and new first-tier cities are the focus of government regulation, and any city with higher housing prices may enter regulation." Wu Rui, deputy managing director of Savills Shenzhen Company and head of Shenzhen Investment Department, said.

Lu Wenxi, a real estate market analyst in Shanghai Zhongyuan, told CBN that the property markets in various places are cooling down. Judging from the means of regulation and control in various places since July, the regulation and control mainly focuses on plugging loopholes, such as restricting fake divorce, talent settlement, social security years and other issues, which are also making up for the original loopholes and deficiencies and ensuring the implementation of policies.

"After the regulatory policies come out, the trading volume will shrink, but it will be a long-term gradual contraction process. Do not rule out the possibility of continuing to patch. It is hoped that through a moderate callback, real estate speculation will be prevented, thus preventing the use of highly leveraged speculators from causing large fluctuations in house prices. " Lu Wenxi said.

House prices are generally stable.

With regard to the real estate market, the central high-level officials and relevant ministries and commissions have held three consecutive meetings recently, reiterating three times that "real estate is not a short-term means to stimulate the economy", emphasizing the problem orientation and attaching great importance to the new situations and problems in the current real estate market. These three meetings involved at least six ministries and commissions, including the central bank, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as a dozen hot cities and a number of large housing enterprises.

At the local level, since July, many cities including Dongguan, Ningbo, Shenzhen and Nanjing have introduced policies to tighten the regulation of the property market. In the past half a month, the binding regulatory policies introduced by hot cities are very intensive, including Hangzhou, Wuxi, Shenyang, Changzhou, Yinchuan and other cities have introduced property market tightening policies.

For example, in Dongguan, Changzhou and other cities that entered the regulation this round, the land market was hot in the first half of 2020, and the premium rate of land auction transactions continued to rise. Based on the tracking data of many brokers on mainstream real estate enterprises, the current inventory is at a historically low level, and the demand for replenishment is strong. In the environment of loose financing in the first half of the year, housing enterprises actively took land to promote the recovery of net debt ratio.

The research report of Huachuang Securities shows that the net debt ratio of the real estate sector was 87.9% in the first half of the year, up 6.4 percentage points from the end of 20 19. Among them, the net debt ratio of first-tier housing enterprises was 64.9%, up 8.3 percentage points from the end of 20 19; The net debt ratio of second-tier housing enterprises was 12 1.9%, up by 4.2 percentage points from the end of 20 19; The net debt ratio of third-class real estate enterprises was 9 1.9%, up 4.9 percentage points from the end of 20 19.

On August 20th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a "symposium for key real estate enterprises" in Beijing, conveying the new financing rules for key real estate enterprises: the asset-liability ratio of real estate enterprises without advance payment shall not be greater than 70%, the net debt ratio shall not be greater than 100%, and the short-term cash debt ratio shall not be less than 1. The "three red lines" policy has also attracted the attention of many housing enterprises.

A person in charge of a TOP5 real estate enterprise in Shenzhen bluntly told the First Financial Reporter that based on the background of deleveraging financing and the general trend of refined real estate regulation, considering that the company's current overall project destocking efforts are quite strong; On the other hand, hot cities and third-and fourth-tier cities have serious destocking differentiation. "In the future, we will still take land, but we will try to choose more promising cities and projects with better return on investment. We will not go to the third and fourth lines for the expansion of soil storage scale, and cash is king."

"Under the background of' three red lines', paying more attention to operating cash flow indicators should be the same choice for many housing enterprises. It is not excluded that real estate enterprises sell some operating properties to ease the cash flow. " Wu Rui continued.

On the whole, with the continuous tightening of the property market regulation policy, the national property market remained stable in August.

Peng Kong, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that in August, after preliminary accounting, the sales price of new commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0. 1 percentage point over the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. The sales price of second-hand houses increased by 1.0% month-on-month, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.7%, 0.8%, 1.7% and 1.65 and 438+0% respectively.

3 1 The sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities increased by 0.6% month-on-month, and the increase rate was 0. 1 percentage point higher than last month; The sales price of second-hand houses rose by 0.4% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped by 0. 1 percentage point from last month. The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in 35 third-tier cities increased by 1.0% and 0.6% respectively, with an increase of 0.2 and 0. 1 percentage point respectively.

Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, analyzed that from the data of house prices in 70 major cities across the country, house prices in 59 cities among newly built houses rose in August, which was the same as the highest point in the third quarter of 20 19; The housing price data of 70 cities of second-hand houses rose by 47 cities, which was the same as that of July 2065438+2009.

Lu Wenxi believes that although the month-on-month increase in the house price index declined in August, many areas still maintained a month-on-month increase. Many cities have joined the ranks of regulation and upgrading, mainly to prevent the market from overheating. The off-season in July and August was not weak, and the property market was in high spirits, pushing up the transaction base. "Golden September and Silver 10" itself is the traditional sales period of the hot property market, and the government also hopes to show its control attitude towards the overheating of the market through these policies and prevent irrational behavior.

Jaco said that as buyers are still optimistic about the market outlook, as long as the policies of restricting purchases and differentiating credit are not changed, the regulation of hot cities in the property market will continue to be tightened, and the overall stability of house prices will not change. In addition, the debt control of the "three red lines" of housing enterprises has been recently increased financially. In September, the phenomenon of explicit or implicit discounts of housing enterprises in the property market is expected to increase, which can boost sales and maintain the overall stability of housing prices.