Game theory is the best tool to analyze interactive behavior.

Today, I watched Upgrade Dimension-Decision Game in Uncertain Times.

Chapter 6: Game theory is the best tool to analyze interactive behavior.

First, the dilemma is a game, equilibrium is a command, and decision-making is a dilemma.

Game theory is to choose the dilemma that embodies matrix thinking, and decision-making is to choose the dilemma.

1, dilemma is the main contradiction.

Complex system modeling is actually matrix thinking. Matrix analysis is not the same as dilemma, only the game matrix in which people participate has dilemma. In other words, only when the preference of decision makers is added to the dimension, or the conflict of interests between people is reflected, will there be a dilemma.

The key word of game theory about institutional order is "balance", that is, the interests of all parties reach a balanced state, which means the establishment of * * * order, and the result is often to avoid the most unfavorable situation for individuals, and the two sides have reached cooperation, tacit understanding or competition.

2. Dilemma is the beginning of balance.

The dilemma is that there is no perfect answer, and no choice can give everyone the best result. Or the decision-maker can see the best result, but there are factors and conditions beyond his control, so he can only settle for the second best, avoid the worst result, and strive to get the second best or second worst result. Dilemma is the starting point to achieve equilibrium.

3. The meaning of dilemma to decision-making.

If there is no dilemma, it means that we are facing a simple problem and don't need to make decisions on complex issues. Finding the dilemma means finding the relationship of mutual restriction and influence, or the principal contradiction. If this contradiction is not handled properly, it may develop in two directions, including the direction we don't want to see.

Dilemma means that we will always encounter the power of checks and balances: either a decision or an action will not benefit everyone, or we will violate or change the welfare of some people, or we will encounter competition.

4. The most important decision-making dimension is people.

In reality, the game between people is the most important, and it is also the most concerned when we make decisions.

Second, the game is a tool to analyze the principal contradiction.

1, cliff strategy: a balanced strategy for survival.

The cliff strategy set the scene of two people fighting at the top of the mountain. Among them, the relatively weak side has a very clever strategy, which is to stand on the edge of the cliff actively, because this may be the best protection for itself. Fighting to the death on the cliff, even the strong side may face the result of falling off the cliff and breaking into pieces. Therefore, if the strong side is smart and rational enough, it will definitely think of this result, give up the attack, and will not easily invade the weak side, thus forming a stable strategic balance.

This means that the weak side has an advantage strategy, which means that no matter how the competitors react, it is the best choice for this enterprise. As long as any player has the dominant strategy, he will definitely choose the dominant strategy.

Cliff strategy creates a possibility of mutual destruction, which is an uncertain situation, making it possible for people to pay the price of destroying themselves for their actions, thus making choices that do not trigger conflicts.

In peacetime, cliff strategy is a deep game logic that countries often use.

There is a fact that since the atomic bomb, although small-scale armed conflicts have continued, there has never been a large-scale war in the world. The reason is that several big countries have nuclear weapons, thus forming a balance of power. Moreover, it is best for nuclear weapons to be possessed only by big countries, because once small countries possess nuclear weapons, the cost of mutual destruction between small countries and big countries is too low, so it will be disturbing for any small country to possess nuclear weapons. Finally, the cliff strategy also depends on whether the decision-makers are rational, so it is best to master this weapon in countries with strict decision-making processes.

Game theory makes us understand the equilibrium mechanism of human interaction. No matter how powerful one side is, if you try to destroy the weak one, then the strong one is likely to be punished. This potential punishment mechanism is the deep reason for the existence of * *.

Therefore, the existence of * * * is the most fundamental assumption of game theory, and the existence of * * * reflects a kind of * * and political thought without the concept of enemy, and it is not necessary to destroy opponents physically and physically, which is also the bottom line in the competitive relationship between enterprises.

2. Smart pig game: realize your own survival by making concessions at a loss.

The scene of the intelligent pig game is that there is a big pig and a little pig in the pigsty. There is a trough at one end of the pigsty and a button at the other end to control the supply of pig food. The button is opposite to the pigsty. If you press the button, 65,438+00 units of pig food will enter the slot, but whoever presses the button will pay the cost of two units first and lose the opportunity to eat in the slot first. If the big pig goes to the trough to eat at the same time, the big pig is a big pig, and the income ratio between the big pig and the little pig is 7:3.

If the little pig removes the button, the final result is that the big pig eats 9 portions and the little pig loses one portion (if the little pig eats one portion, subtracting the consumption of the button is equivalent to losing one portion), then the profit ratio of the big pig is 9:- 1.

If the big pig presses the button, the little pig can eat in the trough first, and can eat one more. The big pig who presses the button can only eat six, MINUS the two that are dropped by pressing the button, and the profit ratio of the big pig is 4:4. In this example, it is better for the pig not to press the button than to press it, which is the dominant strategy of the pig. For the big pig, it is better to press the button than not to press it, so it has to do it by itself. On the premise that both pigs are wise, the final result is that the little pig chooses to wait for the big pig to press the button.

Smart pig game can explain many phenomena in life and business, such as the relationship between banker and retail investors in the stock market-banker is a big pig, retail investors are pigs, and retail investors make cheap money with banker.

"Big pig" behavior can explain the values of "people who can work harder" and "losing is a blessing" in teamwork, and can also be used to explain the characteristics of leadership. From the perspective of leadership, leadership is a "big pig" and should be tolerant. If the leader is in charge of too much, problems will arise if the accounts are too detailed and too small. A person is willing to follow a leader, essentially because following this leader will make money and eat meat.

3. Prisoner's Dilemma: Avoid the worst result with suboptimal result.

Prisoner's Dilemma is about two prisoners who are caught by the police after committing a crime and put in different rooms for trial. The police knew that the two men were guilty, but they lacked sufficient evidence. The police told everyone: if both of them don't confess, they will be sentenced to one year each; If both confess, they will be sentenced to 8 years each; If one of the two confesses and the other denies it, the confessor will be released and the denier will be sentenced to 10 year. So every prisoner is faced with two choices: confession or denial. However, no matter what the partner chooses, the best choice for every prisoner is confession.

In reality, bad guys don't choose to betray their "associates" because they are afraid of being retaliated by gangs after selling their associates for freedom. From the game structure, the bad guys are worried about the result after going out, that is to say, they still have the next round of games in their minds. Then this is not a single-round game, indicating that the game structure of decision makers' psychology has changed. More importantly, even if it is a single-round game structure, not everyone will choose to betray. This shows that everyone has different interpretations of the given game structure: some people only see each other, while others think of a (potential) third party; Some people see the present (the end of the single round), and some people see the future.

Third, the price war leads to the deterioration of equilibrium.

Game theory can help us think better about the dilemma, but the game matrix itself can't help us break through the dilemma.

1. Profit is the source of innovation and business ethics.

The game will eventually reach equilibrium, sometimes a good equilibrium, such as peaceful cooperation, sometimes a bad equilibrium, and it is in a dilemma. The price war is a bad equilibrium.

Profit is the source of innovation, service quality and even business ethics. The price of the industry can be reduced, but the profit will reach a critical point, the industry will no longer attract first-class talents, and the quality of products and services will also decline.

The practice of weakening competitors with price wars will only make the industry smaller and smaller, eventually destroying an industry and harming the interests of all enterprises and consumers.

It is not advisable to kill competitors, infringe intellectual property rights and fight price wars in the business world.

2. Property fees should be linked to house prices.

The property management of urban communities in China is very important, which is related to all aspects of residents' lives. However, the level of property management has been declining or difficult to improve. Because China people's demand for services has been kept at a low level, and they are price-sensitive, few people are willing to pay for intangible services. Therefore, it is extremely difficult for property fees to rise, and it is definitely not possible to improve the property level.

The level of property fees should be linked to the housing price of the community, so that the housing price can reflect the property management and service level of the community and form a positive cycle of service and price.