20 16 house price trend analysis; How much joy, how much sadness.

According to the law of market value, the price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, so the house price is essentially determined by the industrial structure of the city, the administrative level of the city, the net inflow of population and other factors. So, today, let's take a look at the administrative level and net population inflow of cities across the country, and look at the rising space of cities in 20 16 years.

I. 20 16 house price trend

1. Cities with rising house prices:

(1) First-tier cities in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen

20 15 12 17 the report on the investment value of commercial housing in 35 large and medium-sized cities released by tongce consulting research department and Tonghai consulting shows that only 7 of the 35 large and medium-sized cities, including first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen, provincial capitals and key second-tier cities, have a supply-demand ratio lower than1.

Take Shanghai with a supply-demand ratio of 0.9 1 as an example. In 20 14, the resident population was 24,256,800, with a large population base and steady growth. As Shanghai is the economic center of the whole Yangtze River Delta region, the industrial agglomeration effect is obvious, so we predict that the potential demand of Shanghai will reach18.86 million square meters in the next three years, ranking among the top 35 cities.

(2) Key second-tier cities

Among the key second-tier cities in the sample, the supply-demand ratio of Chengdu, Xiamen, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Xi and Nanjing ranks in the middle and upper reaches. Their economic development is relatively good, and they are basically population-oriented cities with certain investment value.

(3) provincial capital cities

In addition, the supply-demand ratio of three provincial capital cities, such as Fuzhou, Hefei and Shijiazhuang, is also within this range. In cities with supply-demand ratio in this range, commercial housing has high investment value.

2. Cities with high destocking pressure:

The supply-demand ratios of Qingdao, Changchun, Lanzhou, Shenyang, Guiyang and Dalian all exceeded 3, while Dalian reached 7. 18, making it the most unbalanced city in the sample. The real estate industry in these areas is under great pressure to destock, and the pressure of rising house prices is even greater.

(1) Key second-tier cities

Also as key second-tier cities, the supply-demand ratios of Wuhan, Suzhou and Chongqing are not ideal, which are 1.96, 2.03 and 2.03 respectively. The main reason is that the land supply in these three cities is too large, which leads to an increase in the ratio of supply and demand.

(2) provincial capital cities

Due to the high ratio of supply and demand, several provincial capital cities in Northeast China and some cities in Northwest China are at the bottom of the ranking of urban investment value. For example, the supply-demand ratio of Qingdao is 3.07, Changchun is 3.27, Lanzhou is 3.7, Shenyang is 4.32, Guiyang is 5.33, and Dalian is as high as 7. 18.

The survey shows that for some cities whose supply-demand ratio is greater than 2.0, and because of their economic slowdown, accelerated population outflow and small market capacity in the future, such cities often face greater inventory pressure and accumulate more risks, so developers and investors should be vigilant. These cities mainly include Taiyuan, Hohhot, Guiyang, Lanzhou, Changchun, Shenyang and Dalian.

The following is the ranking of supply and demand ratio of 35 cities. The lower the supply-demand ratio, the greater the possibility of rising house prices, the higher the supply-demand ratio, the greater the pressure of destocking, and the smaller the room for rising.

Two. 20 16 population inflow law in major cities

First, it is highly concentrated in the three metropolitan areas.

Among the 1 3 cities with a population of over 13, there are eight metropolitan areas, including Shanghai and Suzhou in the Yangtze River Delta, Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Dongguan Buddha in the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin in the Bohai Bay.

Yangtze River Delta Shanghai+Suzhou+Hangzhou+Nanjing+Ningbo+Wuxi+Changzhou = inflow of 8.63 million people.

Pearl River Delta Guangzhou+Shenzhen+Dongguan+Foshan = inflow of 7.96 million people.

Bohai Bay Beijing+Tianjin = inflow of 6.84 million people.

Second, the inflow of non-metropolitan population is concentrated in five hub cities.

Only Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xiamen and Wuhan are not in the three metropolitan areas among the cities with an inflow population of more than 6.5438+0 million.

Among them, Chengdu, Chongqing and Wuhan are star cities with rapid GDP growth in recent years, which are located at the hub of the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River. They are not only the core of Chengdu-Chongqing metropolitan area and urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in national planning, but also benefit from the east wind of coastal industrial transfer in recent years. The surprises are Zhengzhou and Xiamen.

Third, in other second-and third-tier cities, the population inflow rate is slow or even stagnant.

A total of 37.78 million people flowed into 35 big cities, of which 28.32 million people flowed into the former 13 big cities, and only 9.46 million people flowed into the latter 22 second-tier cities, equivalent to 25% of the total.

In fact, these 22 second-tier cities are basically provincial capitals or economic centers, so it is conceivable that the population stagnation or loss of third-and fourth-tier cities below the provincial capital will be inevitable.

Third, the urban industrial structure affects housing prices.

Although population inflow is important, it is not the only factor that affects housing prices. For example, in the past five years, Dongguan's net population inflow ranked fifth in the country, and Foshan's net population inflow ranked ninth in the country. However, there is a big gap between the housing prices in these two cities and those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, two central cities in the region. The factors behind this gap lie in different industrial structures.

Generally speaking, cities with strong service industries are often due to the gradual relocation of traditional industrial industries, and the development strength of the whole city is improving. Behind the developed service industry, it is often the development of commercial real estate and the prosperity of business circle, which has a high driving effect on housing prices.

Cities such as Dongguan and Foshan, which are mainly labor-intensive manufacturing industries, have a large number of migrants, but their mobility is relatively strong, which has not been translated into effective purchasing power. In contrast, the service-oriented cities have gathered more high-end talents, higher incomes and better stability, and their opportunities, abilities and aspirations to stay and settle down are much stronger. Generally speaking, the wealth concentration of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry is different.

Behind the industrial structure, it corresponds to the administrative level of the city, its position in the region and the distribution of public resources such as education and medical care. Therefore, the industrial structure is closely related to the administrative level of the city. A city with a high administrative level will bring better resources and have more advantages in industrial introduction and urban planning.

Therefore, there are two factors that determine the future trend of urban housing prices: the development level of tertiary industry and the supporting services provided by the government. Cities with high administrative levels have many public resources, and it is easy to absorb the resources of surrounding cities. So like Nanjing, although the total GDP is not as good as Suzhou Wuxi; Xiamen's GDP is not as good as Quanzhou's, but Nanjing and Xiamen have higher housing prices because of their high administrative level and rich resources.

(The above answers were published on 20 15- 12-24. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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