What is the future direction of real estate?

At the end of 2000, the per capita housing construction area in China was 20.4 square meters, just at the level of per capita housing in middle-income countries.

The experience of all countries in the world shows that the demand for housing will be very strong before the per capita housing area reaches 30-35 square meters.

With the acceleration of urbanization, the increase of urban population, the renovation of a large number of dilapidated houses and the accelerated development of the secondary real estate market and rental market, there is still a lot of room for development in the housing market.

In the coming 10 year, housing construction in China will continue to develop.

The Blue Book of Real Estate in 2005: China Real Estate Development Report, which was completed by scholars from China Academy of Social Sciences and other units, was recently officially published by Social Science Literature Publishing House, and the China Academy of Social Sciences officially released the report, predicting the trend of China real estate market:

Market supply trend

① Real estate developers are developing in the direction of scale and brand.

During the overheated period of real estate, the profit rate of the real estate industry is relatively high, attracting too many businesses to enter. However, some real estate companies are small in scale, the scale of real estate development is too small, and supporting facilities are not complete. After several years of adjustment, the profitability of the real estate industry is declining, and the competition among real estate developers is becoming increasingly fierce. In this case, scale advantage and brand advantage are increasingly becoming the key for enterprises to win the competition. Many real estate developers with strong comprehensive strength will develop a mature brand management system, realize efficient and scientific management, and build a high-quality service system as an important means to improve their competitiveness.

② The real estate supply will develop in a diversified direction.

With the reform of the housing system, the multi-channel supply system of urban housing in China will gradually take shape. The supply of real estate includes not only commercial housing for middle and high income groups, but also affordable housing for middle and low income groups, as well as poor housing and low-rent housing. Diversification of real estate supply will greatly improve the living conditions of urban families in China.

(3) The price of commercial housing will decrease steadily.

In recent years, the supply of commercial housing market exceeds demand. According to the law of supply and demand, the price of commercial housing should be reduced to stimulate demand. The main reason why the price of commercial housing remains high and the law of supply and demand fails in China real estate market is that China real estate market is an underdeveloped market, and its demand subject is not individual consumers, but groups. From 65438 to 0998, China began to reform the welfare housing distribution system nationwide, worked out a timetable to stop welfare housing distribution, and gradually pushed individual housing consumption to the commercial housing market. The demand subject of the commercial housing market will gradually shift from groups to individuals, and the demand law will gradually strengthen in the real estate market. Therefore, in the case of a large backlog of commercial housing, house prices should gradually come down.

Market demand forecast

At the end of 2000, the per capita housing construction area in China was 20.4 square meters, just at the level of per capita housing in middle-income countries. The experience of all countries in the world shows that there will be strong housing demand before the per capita housing area reaches 30-35 square meters. With the acceleration of urbanization, the increase of urban population, the transformation of a large number of dilapidated houses and the accelerated development of the secondary real estate market and rental market, there is still a lot of room for development in the housing market. The survey results of some institutions in recent cities show that residents' satisfaction rate with existing houses is less than 20%, and about 48% residents are willing to change houses within two or three years; 67% of families who have purchased public houses hope to improve their living conditions and environment by buying houses, and many residents are willing to invest in housing. Therefore, the potential demand for housing is still quite large. Based on the per capita growth of urban population 10 square meter, it is necessary to increase housing by nearly 4 billion square meters. In addition, with the acceleration of urbanization, the demand for housing will increase, and housing will be eliminated naturally (about 10 billion square meters per year). In the coming 10 year, housing construction in China will continue to develop. Specifically, investment and consumption will increase simultaneously (the growth rate of investment may slow down). After China's entry into WTO, China's real estate market has gradually changed from group or institution consumption to individual consumption. The proportion of individual purchases has increased, the quality of housing has been further improved, the standardization of sales links has been accelerated, the field of housing consumption services has been expanded, the total amount of personal housing loans has increased, the coverage of property management has been expanded, and the legal system construction of housing and real estate has been strengthened.

After China's entry into WTO, commercial housing will be popular.

At present, foreign-funded enterprises generally hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the economic situation in China. Many foreign companies only set up offices in the mainland of China, but not companies. Generally, they only rent and don't buy, except for large group companies. After China's entry into WTO, conditions such as tariffs have been relaxed, and investment in China has been guaranteed. Foreign-funded enterprises of all sizes have the conditions and confidence to enter the domestic market, which can provide a considerable customer base for the office building and export apartment market. However, the real estate market after China's entry into WTO will only expand export demand and will not directly increase overseas supply because of its own illiquidity.

② The housing demand of ordinary residents continues to grow.

According to statistics, the per capita housing area of urban residents in China is only 10 square meters, and there are 5010 million urban residents in China, so the potential demand is huge. Coupled with the trend of miniaturization of family size, the small apartment market will increase. Under the welfare housing distribution system, the ability of ordinary residents to buy houses is insufficient, which makes the effective demand in the real estate market insufficient. This situation is expected to change greatly after the monetization of housing distribution.

③ Market demand forecast of urban population growth.

At present, China's urbanization level is 40%, and the urban population is about 565.438+0 billion. It is estimated that in 2020, the urbanization level will reach 55%, the national population will be 654.38+04 billion, the urban population will increase to 770 million, and the urban population will increase by 260 million. According to the per capita living area of 65.438+00 square meters, that is, the construction area of 20 square meters, * * * needs to build 5.2 billion square meters of housing for the new population, with an average annual housing construction of 300 million square meters.

(4) The living conditions have improved and the market demand has increased.

At present, the per capita living area of urban residents' housing is 13.6 square meters, and it will increase to 22 square meters by the end of the tenth five-year plan, which is far from the developed countries. For example, the per capita living area in the United States is 40 square meters, Germany is 38 square meters, Japan is 3 1 square meter, and Singapore is 30 square meters, all of which are usable areas. According to the most conservative estimate, the urban population will reach 770 million in 2020, with an increase of 4 square meters per person. In the first 20 years of this century, 3.08 billion square meters of new housing is needed to improve the living standard, with an average of 65.438+0.8 billion square meters per year.

⑤ The demolition and transformation led to an increase in market demand.

It is estimated that 6,543.8 billion square meters need to be demolished and rebuilt every year. In the next 20 years, at least 580 million square meters of new housing will be built every year. Excluding the overlap, the annual housing demand in China will be maintained at 400-500 million square meters in the next 20 years.

The development of real estate industry during the tenth five-year plan period

The Tenth Five-Year Plan period is a period of vigorous development of China's real estate industry. In 2000, there were 458 million urban residents in China, with a per capita housing construction area of 19.8 square meters (calculated according to the data of China Statistical Yearbook in 2006, 5438+0). It is estimated that by 2005, the urban population in China will reach 540 million, and the per capita housing construction area will increase by 2.8 billion square meters based on the per capita construction area of 22 square meters. If the old houses are demolished and rebuilt at the rate of 4% per year, the total area will be 20% after five years, and the total area will be1800 million square meters; During the tenth five-year plan period, a total of 4.6 billion square meters of new housing will be built. According to the average cost per square meter of urban commercial housing in 2000, the investment in urban housing construction will reach 460 million yuan during the tenth five-year plan period. If commercial housing accounts for 85% of the commercial housing area (1996-2000 on average), cities and towns need to complete 5.4 billion square meters of commercial housing in five years; According to the average cost per square meter of commercial housing in 2000 1 139 yuan (see China Statistical Yearbook 200 1), the total investment in commercial housing construction will reach 620 million yuan in five years. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the total investment in fixed assets of the whole society is about 22 1064 billion yuan, of which commercial housing investment accounts for 28%, indicating that the real estate industry will occupy a significant position in the economic and social development during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period.