The 14th Five-Year Plan will bring qualitative changes to the real estate market.

165438+ 10 16, dtz released the "Interpretation of Suggestions in the Tenth Five-Year Plan". Wei Dong, chief policy analyst of dtz, pointed out that the layout of the 14th Five-Year Plan is based on safety, with emphasis on science and technology and environmental protection, to promote urbanization. Among them, scientific and technological innovation, double circulation, new urbanization and the re-emphasis on "housing and not speculation" will bring qualitative changes to the future development of China real estate market and its development enterprises to a certain extent.

Digital economy is the main line of industrial upgrading in the next decade.

Paying attention to scientific and technological innovation will promote the demand of office market. Scientific and technological innovation has been raised to an unprecedented height in the 14 th Five-Year Plan, which is the main line of core industrial policy during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period. "Self-improvement through science and technology" will become the strategic support for national development in the next five to fifteen years. "Achieving a major breakthrough in key core technologies" is not only a long-term goal in the Tenth Five-Year Plan, but also a long-term goal in 2035. Digital economy is the main line of industrial upgrading in the next decade. The government's emphasis on technological innovation and digital economy will undoubtedly benefit China's writing property market.

Dual economic cycle will become the main line of China's economic development.

Expanding domestic demand will promote the development of retail property, e-commerce and logistics real estate. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, it will be the main line of China's economic development to build an economic system with large domestic circulation and double domestic and foreign circulation. Among them, the domestic great cycle will focus on promoting employment, increasing residents' income, and then promoting consumption in an all-round way. With the development of 5G technology and the continuous expansion of application scenarios, e-commerce will further develop, which will promote the development of logistics real estate in China to some extent. In addition, the integration and upgrading of online and offline to stimulate the new growth of retail format is the development model of retail market during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period. It can be predicted that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, with the further development of e-commerce in China, the demand of logistics real estate market will continue to expand, and logistics real estate will also get more investors' attention.

Urbanization will continue to develop.

Urbanization will continue to be an important driving force for China's economic stability. By the end of 20 19, China's urbanization rate has reached 60.6% (see figure). In the past ten years, China has an average of178.65 million people from rural areas to cities. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, although the urbanization process will slow down, according to the law of urban development, we still have room for growth of 10% to achieve a stable urbanization rate of 70%, which means that more than160,000 people will still enter the city every year. Under this premise, the organic renewal of cities and the orderly development of inter-provincial urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas and urban belts will be more important.

Insist on "housing and not speculation"

In the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal, it is once again emphasized that "houses are used for living, not for speculation, and the real estate market will be developed stably and healthily through both renting and purchasing". At the same time, it is also proposed to "promote the balanced development of finance, real estate and real economy". Sticking to the principle of "housing and not speculating" can not only effectively prevent financial risks, but also enhance residents' willingness to consume to a certain extent. For housing enterprises, the government's supervision of the real estate market will remain strict during the "14 th Five-Year Plan" period, which will be reflected in the control of financing and financial stability of housing enterprises.

As the first five-year plan for China to achieve a well-off society in an all-round way, under the current complicated international and domestic situation, the release of the 14th Five-Year Plan proposal puts forward requirements and directions for the development of China in the next five or even fifteen years, which will also bring about qualitative changes in the development of the real estate market and real estate development enterprises.