Will Shanghai house prices fall? Diwang frequently raises concerns about rising house prices again.

For the judgment of Shanghai's future housing price trend, the insiders believe that in the downtown area, due to the existence of lot value, housing prices will be more strongly realized; In the peripheral areas, most properties may maintain the current price, but there are also a few properties that will implement "dark price reduction" by means of promotion.

Has the house price in Shanghai fallen? Recently, the controversy about the rise and fall of housing prices in Shanghai broke out again, which originated from a research report recently completed by Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. According to this report, Shanghai housing prices fell for the first time after six years of continuous rise, and the average price fell by 0.5% in 2006.

However, this statement is obviously different from the personal feelings of some insiders and citizens. Some real estate agents interviewed said that the price of second-hand houses in Shanghai has maintained a slight upward trend recently, and some second-hand houses with better quality are still in short supply. In the new housing market, there has been a scene of queuing to buy recently, which seems to have nothing to do with the statistics of falling house prices.

So, what is the housing price in Shanghai? The reporter made a field visit to this, hoping to get a clear answer.

Has the house price fallen?

Mr. Wu has been working in Shanghai for more than four years from Hefei, and his desire to buy a house has not yet come true. At the beginning of 2005, he almost saved enough down payment for a small second-hand house. When he was looking for a house, it coincided with the macro-control of the real estate market by the state. Like most property buyers, Mr. Wu also hopes that house prices can be adjusted back under macro-control, so he temporarily canceled the plan to buy a house.

Two years later, except for a few buildings with high housing prices, the general decline in housing prices has not appeared in front of him. During this period, there were also some properties that caused buyers to snap up at the opening, and even queued for reservations all night, but this was not caused by price cuts.

Sometimes, he will see some advertisements for low-priced buildings in the newspaper, but whenever he arrives at the scene, the results he sees often disappoint him, because all low-priced buildings are distributed outside the outer ring of Shanghai, such as Baoshan District, Minhang District and even Songjiang and Fengxian, which is useless to him.

Although official data show that Shanghai's housing prices have fallen since the macro-control, the information Mr. Wu got from the market shows that there is no obvious sign of a decline in housing prices. "Maybe what I saw was limited, but the real estate price I saw did not fall. On the contrary, some real estate prices have risen slightly. " He said with some helplessness.

Mr. Wu said that he would continue to pay attention to the changes in housing prices, because for him, he has not found a suitable housing so far, and his desire to buy a house has not been realized.

Statistics have different calibers.

There are a lot of data on housing prices in Shanghai, and the information reflected is different.

At the beginning of this year, statistics from Shanghai Statistics Bureau showed that the housing sales price in Shanghai dropped by 1.3% last year, of which the commercial housing sales price dropped by 3.2%. However, the information expressed by another figure released by the Bureau of Statistics shows that house prices are rising, that is, the average selling price in 2006 was 7038 yuan/square meter, which was 340 yuan/square meter higher than that in 2005. As can be seen from the following data, Shanghai housing prices are still on the rise.

For the statement that Shanghai's sales price dropped by 1.3% last year, some insiders think that this can't reflect the real situation of the market. The source of this data is accidental, because the data sample only selects a few representative buildings, which may have some errors with the actual situation of the market.

In addition, the monitoring data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Development and Reform Commission on housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country show that as of June 2006, the sales price of new commercial housing in Shanghai dropped slightly by 0. 1%. Interestingly, only two months later. According to the data of February this year, the sales price of new commercial housing in Shanghai rose slightly by 0. 1%.

Statistics from the people are contrary to the conclusion that house prices have fallen. For example, the "Empirical Data of Shanghai Real Estate Development in 2006" recently released by Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute in early March this year shows that the average price of commercial housing in Shanghai rose by about 4% in 2006, while the increase in 2005 exceeded 20%.

Judging from these data disclosed through various channels, readers may be puzzled. What is the real situation of housing prices in Shanghai?

Different regions are mixed.

What is the real estate price in Shanghai? What is the truth behind this disagreement? The reporter found that the price of the core area of the city center is still rising through the investigation of the price trend of specific real estate in various regions of Shanghai, and the price decline is mainly in the real estate located in the suburbs of Shanghai.

The results of the reporter's on-the-spot investigation show that within the Central Line and the Inner Ring Line of Shanghai, house prices are exceptionally firm. Even though a few buildings with inflated prices experienced short-term fluctuations in the initial stage of regulation, they have now re-entered the normal development track.

Liu Wuyang, head of Shanghai Deyou Real Estate Jing 'an Branch, said in an interview that although macro-control has lasted for two years, there are almost no buildings with falling prices in Jing 'an District where he lives. Liu Wuyang has been engaged in real estate brokerage in Jing 'an District and knows the real estate market in this area like the back of his hand.

When talking about the trend of housing prices in Jing 'an District, Liu Wuyang made it clear that the housing prices in the vicinity have never fallen. For example, he said that in June, 2005, when the national real estate control policy was intensively introduced, the average price of the International Lidu City located at Lane 758 of Beijing West Road was about 24,000 yuan/square meter. Now, after two years of macro-control, the price of the International Lidu City has reached 29,000-33,000 yuan/square meter, with an increase of 20%-38%. "Now as long as there are houses in the international capital, someone will take over, especially the duplex houses. Even if the price reaches an astonishing 35,000 yuan/square meter, some people are willing to buy it. "

According to Liu Wuyang, in Jing 'an District, there are high-end buildings such as Zhong Kai City Light and Jing 'an Fengjing, and the prices are extremely firm, which are very popular among buyers.

For the real estate with previous price fluctuations, the current price has also rebounded to varying degrees. For example, Yaojiang Garden, located in the Expo section of Luwan District, Shanghai, according to a nearby intermediary, at the beginning of the introduction of the national control policy, the price of a small number of houses eager to sell once fell to10.5 million yuan/square meter. But since the beginning of 2006, the price has been stable all the way. So far, the price of second-hand houses in this property generally exceeds 22,000 yuan/square meter, and houses exceeding 30,000 yuan/square meter are not uncommon.

Shanghai Central Link is the most popular area for home buyers, which will naturally attract more people's attention. The reporter found that the price of real estate near Zhonghuan Road is also relatively firm. For example, the city-state of Wu Tong in Dahua Plate had an average price of 7,700 yuan/square meter when it opened in August 2005, but the average price of houses currently on sale has risen to 8,300 yuan/square meter. Wanyuan City, located in Gudai Road, Minhang District, has an average price of 1 10,000/m2, which is higher than the opening price of Jiangnan Star City just one stop away 1.80 yuan/m2. Even so, there are still people queuing to buy a house at the opening, which seems to have returned to the pre-regulation.

Of course, housing prices in areas outside Shanghai's Outer Ring Road have indeed experienced different degrees of correction, and have not yet returned to the original level. For example, Xia Duo Town, located in the old Minhang plate of Minhang District, once reached 5,700 yuan/square meter before regulation, and now it is still hovering around 5,200 yuan/square meter; Shanghai Kangcheng, located in Xinmin plate, had an average price of 6,600 yuan/square meter in the initial stage of regulation, and now it is about 5,500 yuan/square meter, which is still a certain distance from the highest point.

The future is expected to stabilize rationally.

At present, the Shanghai real estate market has gradually returned to rationality from madness, which fully demonstrates the efforts of relevant parties and the effectiveness of regulation. If we make a judgment on the status quo, the reporter's view is that the overall development is stable, but there are changes in some areas.

The so-called overall stable development, the reporter believes that within the Central Link of Shanghai, it can even expand the scope and move to the Outer Link. After a short period of fluctuation, house prices will return to the track of rational development. Rational development is mainly manifested in the small increase.

We can also cite that the Shanghai real estate market tends to be stable through the comparison of market supply and demand. According to the data of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, the supply of commercial housing market in 2006 was 27.94 million square meters, which was 7.5% lower than that in 2005, and fell below 30 million square meters for the first time in the past four years. In 2006, the transaction volume of commercial housing in the city was 26,065,438+10,000 square meters, an increase of 18% over 2005. The relationship between supply and demand in the market changed from oversupply after macro-control in 2005 (1: 0.73) to basic balance between supply and demand (1: 0.93).

(The above answers were published on 20 13-06-04. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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