Analysis of photovoltaic industry and periodic problems: The following contents refer to some data of external brokers.

First of all, photovoltaic products belong to standardized industrial products and have the attributes of commodities. The core of price trend depends on the relationship between supply and demand, and the best indicator is the shipment data of EVA manufacturers.

EVA is a necessary film for photovoltaic modules, which is directly related to the area. A module is 1.63 square meters, and the EVA needs to be packaged before and after, and the area will be slightly smaller than the module area, so the EVA area used by a module is 1.6 2=3.2 square meters;

Due to the loss of a certain area in the production process, the loss area of each module is between 0.2 and 0.3 square meters, so the actual EVA area of a 60-type standard module is 3.2+0.2=3.4.

The EVA industry is highly monopolized, and the leading enterprise Foster occupies 48% of the global market share. Last year, shipments reached 577 million.

The longer one is Swick, with an output of 65.438+0.56 billion last year; The third is Hai Youwei. Last year's shipment was about 654.38+0.3 billion. The market structure of the three companies is stable. Last year, the total shipment volume was 863 million. If converted into 60-type standard parts, it corresponds to 8.633.4 = 253.8 million pieces. According to the average power of 278W per model 60 module last year, the corresponding total power is 2.538278 =70.5GW = 70.5GW..

Last year, excluding film components, the total global component shipments reached 10 1GW, and the market share of the above three companies was only 70%.

EVA is related to the area, so the power increase brought by the progress of battery technology will not interfere with EVA data.

The consumption of EVA is certain, and there is little difference between the losses in the industry. The consumption of each model 60 standard module is about 3.4 square meters, which is convenient for memory and calculation, and it is easy to find a certain calculation standard. EVA production line can be started and stopped flexibly, and it will not be produced blindly to hoard inventory when the off-season comes, and the disturbance of inventory factors is small;

EVA is highly monopolized and centralized. We only need to track the production and sales data of the three companies to cover 70% of the shipments of the whole industry, and the competition pattern is stable. We only need to divide the data of the three companies by 0.7, and we can calculate the overall demand of the whole industry, and have a clear understanding of the industry's warmth and coldness simply and quickly.

Secondly, how do you view the future investment opportunities of photovoltaic? As usual, if you want to see the future, look back at the past first.

In the past 10 years, the photovoltaic industry has undergone three major changes. For the first time, Suntech Yingli set up a megawatt photovoltaic module production line, for the second time, GCL-Poly broke through the cold hydrogenation process to occupy the silicon market, and for the third time, Longji Co., Ltd. promoted monocrystalline silicon wafers to reduce costs and replace polycrystalline silicon wafers.

These three times correspond to the substantial cost reduction of components, silicon wafers and silicon materials in the three links of the photovoltaic industry chain, realizing large-scale manufacturing and promoting the parity of power generation costs.

Behind this, the photovoltaic industry in the past 10 years showed obvious characteristics of cycle plus growth: the industry as a whole was growing, but the cycle fluctuated sharply, mainstream manufacturers were often subverted, and former leaders were non-mainstream outsiders. The photovoltaic industry keeps repeating the story of the poor to the richest and then to bankruptcy.

For example, Suntech Yingli was an unknown trader before the breakthrough of component technology. Before breaking through silicon technology, GCL-Poly was only a secondary thermal power plant listed in Hong Kong. Now Longji is only a third-class supplier of Suntech before the outbreak, and the fiery Tongwei shares are still producing feed.

Mainstream manufacturers are constantly being subverted, because the huge sunk cost of the last wave of investment has constrained them from moving and embracing new technologies, so the bigger the scale, the faster they will die.

Specifically. After the financial crisis in 2008, the global fiscal and monetary policies stimulated, especially in European countries such as Germany and Spain, which heavily subsidized photovoltaic.

At that time, the bottleneck of the industrial chain was the supply of silicon materials, and the price of silicon materials soared to nearly 200 dollars. The film route is cost-effective. Semiconductor companies such as applied materials have successively launched turnkey production lines, and companies such as Zhengtai Photovoltaic and Xinao Energy have bought in large quantities, as well as non-mainstream routes such as metal silicon and waste silicon recycling and smelting.

At that time, GCL-Poly found that the preparation process of silicon was actually a moderately difficult chemical process, so it took a different approach and recruited a group of engineers from Northeast Chemical Plant to design the reduction furnace and reactor and explore the process. In 2009, the cold hydrogenation process of GCL-Poly successfully landed, which shocked the global photovoltaic industry, and its share price soared 10 times.

The surge in funds has pushed the production capacity of Poly Association from 5,000 tons to 60,000 tons. At the same time, the price of silicon materials dropped from $200 to $20 like a crash. From applied materials to film companies such as Zheng Tai and Xinao, the story of Hanergy Photovoltaic taking over the film at a high point has not ended today, and the recovery of metal silicon and waste silicon has not been mentioned.

20 10-20 1 1 The European debt crisis eliminated the subsidies from Germany and Spain, and the crazy expansion of polycrystalline industrial chain suffered the most serious double blow in the history of photovoltaics. At that time, the relatively small monocrystalline silicon wafer enterprises were slow to respond to the price reduction, and the unit market share was squeezed below 20%.

Longji, listed on 20 1 1, has a lingering fear of holding 1 100 million yuan of funds. The Secretary-General lamented that Longji could survive in such a miserable industry.

At the end of 20 12, by chance, we sat next to Mr. Zhong. At the boring meeting, Mr. Zhong drew us a 20 13-20 17 single crystal cost reduction roadmap, which split the marginal contribution of the new process, which was very convincing.

From 20 13 to 20 15, the small Longji shares were immersed in exploring these processes under the strong pressure of GCL, until 20 15 Longji shares successfully issued 2 billion bullets for the first time and began the first large-scale expansion of monocrystalline silicon wafers.

The process from 5GW, 10GW, 20GW to 65GW is like that of GCL-Poly, and its share price has risen 50 times, far surpassing GCL-Poly to become a well-deserved industry leader of A shares.

The technical iteration of silicon materials has stabilized the competitive pattern of silicon materials industry. Since the beginning of this year, overseas silicon factories have stopped production, and the market concentration of Tongwei, Daquan and Xiexin manufacturers has exceeded 70%, and the volatility of silicon prices has dropped significantly. The technological iteration of silicon wafer is stabilizing the competitive pattern of silicon wafer industry.

The market share of polysilicon wafers has dropped below 20% this year. With the large-scale release of CNC production capacity in Longji, Zhonghuan and Shangji, the market share of top monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers is close to 70%.

Since April, the price of monocrystalline silicon has plummeted. The price caused by the inflection point of the production cycle will be close to 2.3 yuan, the long-term price center of silicon wafers, in the second half of this year. After that, with the convergence of fluctuations, the price of silicon wafers will gradually decline.

From the perspective of rewinding, technical iterations have taken place in components, silicon materials and silicon wafers, and the last field of battery chips is still quietly interest-free. It is this quiet interest-free industry that causes the battery industry to remain scattered and has no right to speak in the industrial chain game of silicon chips.

In terms of commodity value, the market capacity of battery chips is nearly twice that of silicon chips, and the level of unit profit rate is less than 1/3 of silicon chips, which is a very abnormal phenomenon.

From the technical evolution diagram of the National Laboratory of the United States ten years ago, the order of photovoltaic efficiency: multi-junction? Single knot? Polycrystalline battery (crystalline silicon)? Thin film battery. The discontinuity of two jumps at the industrial level perfectly embodies this efficiency route.

The market believes that new photovoltaic technologies emerge one after another, and it is difficult to distinguish between true and false. According to the first principle, this efficiency roadmap is indisputable, and behind it is the scientific logic of material science.

God has arranged the future of photovoltaic technology, namely heterojunction technology, unique composite structure and considerable efficiency potential.

The process of replacing thin film with silicon and polysilicon with monocrystalline silicon paves the way for heterojunction to replace simple junction. Because the silicon substrate of heterojunction battery is N-type single crystal silicon, the preparation process of P-type single crystal can be transformed into N-type process (this is not jumping discontinuity), so when P-type single crystal silicon completely replaces P-type polysilicon, it is announced that N-type structure replaces P-type structure.

The ultimate goal of photovoltaic power generation is to get online, but the power grid is not a charity and will not accept photovoltaic infinity because of corporate social responsibility.

When the optical storage system reaches the parity of the power generation side, the power grid has the commercial motivation to accept photovoltaic, and the thermal power is terminated.

Power grid reform has liberalized the market space of distribution auxiliary services such as frequency modulation and peak shaving, and energy storage operators have a stable source of income. Grid-connected pressure forces energy storage demand to start, and power grid reform pressure forces energy storage profit model to start.

Photovoltaic is the first-class rocket of optical storage system.

Energy storage stimulates the next super demand of lithium batteries. Both energy storage demand and power demand * * * promote lithium batteries to reduce costs and increase efficiency, thus accelerating the application of energy storage. This is the second stage rocket of optical storage system, so the time for optical storage system to replace thermal power may be faster than everyone expected. This market space is the superposition of two billion-level markets, which may be in the tens of thousands.

To sum up, heterojunction and energy storage will be the birthplace of photovoltaic 10 times or even 100 times in the future.

Finally, talk about the understanding of the cycle. Talking about the cycle, from short to long, it is divided into inventory cycle, capacity cycle and economic cycle.

Inventory cycle causes changes in income statement, capacity cycle causes changes in balance sheet, and economic cycle causes technological changes.

Further deduction:

1) It is operating income that changes the income statement. Operating income is determined by price and sales volume, while price is affected by supply and demand. Sales volume comes from production and sales rate and capacity utilization rate, while capacity comes from the balance sheet, so the income statement is the discounted value at the current time of the balance sheet.

2) When the price fluctuation in the inventory cycle causes changes in the income statement, the balance sheet of the enterprise, especially the fixed assets, remains unchanged. When the price falls, the fixed cost of backward enterprises can't bear the impact, which leads to the bankruptcy of backward enterprises, the contraction of production capacity of the whole industry and the upward production cycle;

3) When the technology is eliminated, the fixed costs of leading enterprises cannot bear the impact, and the whole industry goes bankrupt. Whether the fixed assets (fixed costs) of enterprises can withstand the impact is the standard to distinguish the three cycle levels.

Whether backward or leading enterprises, the essence is to recover fixed assets investment through depreciation, so no matter how beautiful the income statement is, it can't cover up the weakness of balance sheet and cash flow.

At the level of production cycle, backward enterprises were eliminated, the concentration of leading enterprises increased, the industry became more and more stable, and finally monopoly appeared. Monopoly is the source of excess profits, so is any industry. The problem is the duration of industry stability.

Monopoly is a false proposition for industries with endless business models and technological progress. In 1950s, American military demand gave birth to the semiconductor industry. In the past 50 years, several rounds of semiconductor cycles have buried countless leading semiconductor companies.

When wafer technology was stable, TSMC appeared and rose for 20 years. Behind this, Samsung and Intel are still in turmoil, and Moore's Law is expanding the moat of TSMC. Even in this field, TSMC is still trying to make money.

Intel, which dominated the CPU field for more than ten years, was overtaken by AMD a few years later, and the new architecture is still impacting the boss.

Furthermore, in industries where business models and technological progress are constantly emerging, an enterprise's staged lead may even bury the cause of failure, which is the famous "innovator's dilemma".

The huge fixed assets accumulated by leaders have become the burden of a new round of technological competition. The higher the position, the larger the scale, the greater the possibility of being abandoned, because the early provision of asset impairment is an active bankruptcy, maintaining capacity utilization and accelerating negative self-circulation, which is a dilemma.

Photovoltaic industry from silicon material technology change to silicon wafer change and then look at the future battery change, from leading to backward, from the richest man to bankruptcy, everywhere. Cause this situation,

1) technology changes too fast, so fixed assets are eliminated too quickly;

2) The efficiency premium is insufficient, so the cost attribute is more than the technical attribute;

3) The cost difference is small, and repeated construction often leads to overcapacity.

But at the level of economic cycle, all inventory cycles and production cycles are not worth mentioning.

At the end of each economic cycle, the technology dividend disappears, and the lack of growth is accompanied by four crises, such as war, plague or financial crisis. Emerging industries completely replace backward industries, and so does the rise and fall of a country. In the 1920s, the United States surpassed Britain in industries such as electricity and automobiles driven by the second technological revolution, and in the 1980s, the United States surpassed Japan in industries such as computers and the Internet driven by the third technological revolution, which was neither the white culture of Protestant ethics nor the endless liquidity bubble of the Federal Reserve.

People, enterprises and countries are all the same, and they all rely on the great industry that spans bulls and bears. The core is the balance sheet based on fixed assets.