The cash flow of most stores in Box Horse turned positive, and the new retail box horse model runs through?

In the earnings season, major Internet companies have published quarterly transcripts. In Ali's recent transcripts, the situation of box horses has attracted much attention from the market. The cash flow of most stores in Box Horse has turned positive, and many people are asking. What does the change of box horse mean? How to analyze and judge the box horse model?

First, the new changes of the box horse

165438+1October 17. Alibaba announced the second quarter results of fiscal year 2023. As mentioned in the financial report, Alibaba's direct sales and other revenues increased by 6% year-on-year to RMB 64.725 billion this quarter, mainly due to the growth of Box Horse's revenue, and its online order revenue accounted for a high level of more than 65%.

In this quarter, Box Horse achieved healthy same-store sales growth and significantly reduced losses by increasing gross profit margin, reducing online order fulfillment costs and improving operational efficiency. As of September 30, 2022, excluding the stores that have been in business for less than 12 months, most of the box horse stores have positive cash flow.

Since the beginning of this year, many changes have taken place in the fresh Internet industry, and more and more attention has been paid to it. Box immediately revealed the profit situation. When Hou Yi, CEO of Box Horse, was interviewed by the media in June 5438+February last year, the four newly opened cities of Box Horse achieved profits in the first month. In addition, Sanjiang Shopping also revealed in the financial report that its Ningbo Box Horse has achieved profitability for six consecutive months.

In the news, in the news of 165438+ 10/5, the supply chain paradigm learned that Box Horse was put into production in Hangzhou, one of the eight supply chain centers in China. Previously, two supply chain centers in Wuhan and Chengdu have been put into use one after another. According to Box Horse, the types of goods stored in the supply chain center exceed 30% of the industry.

According to public information, Box Horse has built five hub centers, eight supply chain operation centers, more than 100 production warehouses and land sales warehouses nationwide, with a storage area exceeding 1 10,000 square meters, and is also equipped with 1 10 trunk lines.

The Report on the Development of Instant Retail in China in 2022 released by China Chain Store & Franchise Association shows that the compound growth rate of instant retail will remain high in the next few years, and it is predicted that the market size of instant retail will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026. Although instant retailing is developing rapidly, it is still quite difficult for the whole industry to turn cash flow positive. According to statistics, it is almost normal that the cash flow of instant retail-related enterprises listed at present is unstable, which shows how difficult it is for Box Horse cash flow to turn positive.

Second, is the box horse model running through?

Speaking of box horses, I believe most people are familiar with them. Box Horse, founded on 20 15, once attracted the attention of the whole market. As a sample of the new retail industry in China, Box Horse changed the business logic of the traditional retail market with the help of the new O2O model of "online e-commerce+offline stores" and built a new retail system of "fresh supermarkets+restaurants+logistics distribution".

After several years of continuous expansion, Box Horse has realized the positive cash flow of most stores. What does this matter mean to Box Horse? How should this matter be analyzed?

First of all, positive cash flow means a breakthrough in the box horse model. As we said before, a careful study of the current development of Box Horse will reveal that although it is only the data of cash flow turning positive, it is not easy for this cash flow to turn positive. At present, it is the golden window of instant retail development, and various instant retail enterprises have started the road of rapid development and even continued to expand the market. In the context of rapid expansion, making money has become a very difficult thing. Whether it is a traditional transformation enterprise like Yonghui or an Internet company like Daily Fresh, losses have almost become the norm in the market.

In this case, since the loss is inevitable, the value of cash flow is extremely important. When we analyzed the listed companies in the Internet technology industry more than once before, we said that the loss is not a problem for Internet technology companies, and how to ensure a stable cash flow is the core key.

In the early stage of industrial development, you can support the stability of cash flow by constantly financing and burning money. However, once the industrial development enters a mature stage, whether it can ensure a sustained and stable cash flow becomes the key to drive the development of enterprises.

For the current Box Horse, except for the new stores that have been opened for less than one year, the cash flow of most Box Horse stores has turned positive, which means that the business model of Box Horse has made a breakthrough. If the business model is established at the unicorn stage from 0 to 1, the imagination space of the capital market has really been upgraded from 1 to 100. Stable cash flow is the real core competitiveness of science and technology enterprises, and Box Horse has undoubtedly realized this.

Secondly, commodity power is becoming the most effective driving force of box horse. The core of retail is commodities, and the success of sales is an inevitable requirement for the development of all retail industries. Whether it is a traditional supermarket or a new retail enterprise, the choice of products is always the key to market development, but the choice of goods is also a practical problem that puzzles many retail enterprises.

After numerous searches, Box Horse has gradually formed its own unique competitive advantage of "commodity power":

First, we will continue to build a frontier with high commodity strength through commodities with strong own advantages. As soon as you enter the box horse store, I believe everyone will find many unique products, that is, building their own brands and constantly adding new products every month, so that box horse has a remarkable commodity power different from other new retail enterprises. Box Horse's own brand products, including fresh, standard products and 3R (instant cooking, instant eating and instant heating), account for 35% of the sales. Numerous self-owned brand goods let Box Horse directly control the whole process from production to sales, and let Box Horse gradually build its own frontier of high commodity strength.

The second is to shape the competitiveness of SKU with the concept of "the martial arts in the world are only fast and unbreakable". After entering the 2 1 century, the consumption habits of consumers in China have been continuously upgraded in the shaping of the Internet, and the rapid change of demand has become a typical trend of market development. Under such circumstances, rapid iteration and small steps have almost become the core methods of the new Internet retail industry. Box Horse continuously builds 6000-8000 core SKUs to stimulate consumers' repurchase sentiment. Through the rapid iteration of goods, the data shows that the consumption frequency of box horse users reaches 4.5 times/month, and the paid members increase by 50% year-on-year.

The third is to constantly create new explosions and enhance the attractiveness of consumption. In recent years, it has almost become a normal state that box horses "constantly produce new styles and constantly explode". New retail enterprises will often continue to build a batch of strong explosives of their own, such as the Swiss rolls in the familiar Sam. Box horse is good at making explosions continuously. Box Horse will launch dozens of products every month, and many of the products developed are "strange". It is these products that are constantly looking for consumption trends that have produced many explosions, and also increased the success rate of box horse product research and development from 70% to 97%.

It can be said that strong commodity power is becoming the real driving force of box horse. Driven by the development of commodities, Box Horse has gradually found its own new retail expansion in Zhang Zhilu.

Third, use the "stupid" supply chain to shape the powerful ecological chain of Box Horse.

I believe everyone knows that e-commerce can be light and heavy, and the heaviest model is undoubtedly self-built supply chain, and spending real money to build a supply chain system that keeps burning money. This is a "stupid errand" in many people's cognition, but as Zeng Guofan said, "build a hard fortress and fight an underground war", this "stupid errand" is actually of practical value.

According to the statistics of China Logistics Statistical Yearbook, the proportion of fresh circulation in China is only 10%, which is about 40pct lower than that in the United States and Japan. The loss rate is about 25-30%, which is more than 20% higher than that of the United States and Japan. There are generally more than five circulation links, which is higher than that of the United States and Japan; The proportion of fresh logistics cost to total cost is higher than that of developed countries 10%.

As we said earlier, Box Horse has built five hub centers and eight supply chain operation centers in China, which is the core difficulty of logistics. When the "stupid" supply chain is established, Box Horse will have the confidence to launch the explosive products and superior products we mentioned earlier. The biggest feeling for consumers is that the goods are fresher and the prices are more affordable. For example, Box Horse's "Shu Shu" series of fruits were picked at the age of eight and quickly sold to the whole country. "Everyday Fresh" series of meat, vegetables, eggs and milk were produced the day before, arrived at the store in the early morning and sold on the same day.

This whole set of supply chain gameplay gives Box Horse a truly effective ecological chain system. In this ecological chain system, both the upstream production of Box Horse Village and the downstream sales of Box Horse Store can find their own niche, and Box Horse is becoming an omni-channel company with ecological significance.

At present, it is undoubtedly a relatively low tide in the retail industry, but just as Warren Buffett uses value investment to find the power to cross bulls and bears, layout in the low tide is undoubtedly the most effective means. The current changes in Box Horse are actually just the tip of the iceberg. Finding a snowy road long enough and slippery enough is the real value of snowballing. Box Horse is looking for a snowy road with real long-term value in the new retail industry, and the dawn is undoubtedly behind the snowball.