What is the background of the 5438+08 foreign exchange disaster in June 2008?

Although I have studied the dollar index for five years, this is the first time I have seen such a scene. The dollar index, which plunged 2.8% a day, has never appeared in these five years. That year, after the internet technology bubble burst, Nasdaq fell by more than 1 000 a day, but it is not clear that the global economic crisis broke out from this moment, and it was not the crisis in the US economy, but the global currency crisis began to break out.

After the US dollar index crossed 95 points and retreated to 94 points, it took 22 trading days to reach 95 points. But it quickly broke through 96 points, 97 points, 98 points and 99 points, and there was no resistance at all. Only after touching 100, it rushed to 100 after three transactions, achieving the expected March rush to 100. But it's too fast, and I'm inevitably a little nervous. What is hidden behind this soaring dollar index? Because the global monetary pattern reflected by the US dollar index is undergoing major changes. I judge this way. As can be seen from the dollar index, there is an arduous struggle between China and the United States. The collapse of the ruble is something I predicted a long time ago, but in my book Inflation and Deflation in China, I specially studied that the hot BRIC countries, namely China, India, Brazil and Russia, will burst their bubbles in an unprecedented crisis and their economies will fall into the Great Depression.

In 20 13, Indian Rupee plunged by 38%, and after the bubble burst, the Indian economy embarked on the road of recovery; In 20 14, the US dollar began to appreciate, and the US dollar index was bound to rise, which dealt a great blow to China's economic bubble, including Russia and Brazil. These three countries will have currency problems, and all use infrastructure to stimulate investment, overdraw resources, destroy ecology, and the economic bubble will inevitably burst. Accidents in Russia and Brazil are also evidence. Of these four countries, China is only the last one that triggered the financial turmoil. Just as the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, were fighting for hegemony, the social camps in Eastern Europe collapsed one after another, and finally the former Soviet Union collapsed. This round is mainly aimed at BRIC countries and emerging market countries.

Let's start with the Swiss franc incident. This incident was summed up when I observed the market of the US dollar index. In the market, the Swiss franc incident is only a small battle, not a big battle. There is bound to be a financial showdown between China and the United States. The incident of 20 14 Swiss francs was caused by10.30, 165438+78% Swiss citizens disapproved of buying 1000 tons of gold, which inevitably led to a sharp drop in gold. 20 14, 12, 1, gold opened at 1 15 1, and first fell to1/43, the lowest point in the year/kloc. Overseas people said that gold was mainly pulled up by "China buyers" that day. This currency scuffle is just a small battle. Later, until 2065438+2005,65438+ 10, 15, gold broke through and rose to the height of 65438+10/22, 1306 USD. Gold has now fallen by 1 150 dollars. It should be said that from the market point of view, China's efforts to maintain the gold price and suppress the US dollar index at that time were very effective, but it turned out to be useless.

Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen: Today's interest rate resolution reiterated that the policy interest rate will remain unchanged. Removing the word "patience" today does not mean that we have lost patience. The nodes that raise interest rates will be determined according to economic data. The possibility of raising interest rates at future meetings is not ruled out. When the job market further improves, it will be appropriate to raise interest rates.

Excluding "patience" does not mean raising interest rates in June, but it does not rule out raising interest rates in June. The economic situation makes it impossible to raise interest rates in April. The inflation rate is expected to be very low this year. We will continue to pay close attention to the inflation trend. The decline in import prices has curbed the rise in inflation. Strong employment growth and low energy prices will stimulate household spending. GDP growth is expected to moderate. The recovery of the real estate market has been restrained. GDP growth slowed down in the first quarter. There is still room for further improvement in the job market. The salary increase is still weak. Full employment is still in the process of realization. Employment growth remains strong.

Even after the first rate hike, our policy will remain highly relaxed. Will reinvest the debt. If the economic expansion is stronger than expected, the interest rate increase will be advanced, otherwise it will be postponed. Specific policy actions will depend on these data. FOMC members believe that the future interest rate will be lower than the normalization level because credit is suppressed. When inflation returns to the target of 2%, it will be appropriate to raise interest rates. These are all positive.

There is a background for the plunge of the US dollar index, that is, China organized the "Asian Investment Bank" to recruit shareholders everywhere, which made it prosperous, which is obviously the biggest driving force to suppress the US dollar index. So, I think this is that the currency war between China and the United States has reached a white-hot level. The dollar will neither retreat nor attack. One of the most important factors is that the US dollar index has been hit hard this time. In this context, we will wait and see.