There is a huge shortage of crew members, and the shipping industry is in a state of "human shortage" due to insufficient supply and demand.

Recently, the "2021 Seafarer Workforce Report" released by the Baltic International Chamber of Shipping (BIMCO) and the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) shows that the maritime industry is currently suffering from a manpower shortage due to the impact of the new crown epidemic. According to research, the epidemic situation will worsen the labor supply problem in the next few years.

At present, senior seafarers on coastal routes, such as third mates, third engineers, and ocean-going captains with qualifications and good English, are in a "human shortage" in the old EFI market, while seafarers on international routes are in a shortage. Demand will continue to exceed supply now and for a long time to come. If it is to avoid a serious shortage of total crew supply by 2026, the shipping industry must significantly increase source personnel and improve training and recruitment levels.

Given the growing demand for STCW-certified seafarers, the Seafarer Workforce Report 2021 predicts that the world’s merchant fleet will need an additional 89,510 seafarers by 2026. This figure is extrapolated based on seaborne trade growth forecasts. The report estimates that there is currently a shortage of approximately 26,240 qualified crew members, indicating that the supply of crew members will exceed demand in 2021.

There are many factors causing the current "human shortage":

Looking at the overall environment: the disappearance of China's demographic dividend, the declining willingness of young people to work in difficult industries, and the lack of systematic training of senior crew members Planning and regulation;

From the perspective of the shipping industry: factors such as insufficient willingness of graduates to join ships, insufficient training quantity to meet market demand, fear of the epidemic, and shortened three-to-two cycles after the new regulations.

The current shortage of Chinese crew members on international routes is generally caused by:

The psychological impact of the epidemic on crew members on international routes. The foreign epidemic cannot be effectively controlled in the short term, especially many ships on international routes, which are likely to be in high-risk areas. In addition, although our crew members have been vaccinated, the vaccine has limited defense against mutated viruses. The vaccine's psychological "reassurance" effect on Chinese seafarers has weakened. Generally speaking, the epidemic will force some crew members on international routes to choose to wait and see temporarily or go directly to domestic routes.

There are vacancies in major expatriate countries such as India and the Philippines. Countries such as India and the Philippines, which are major exporters of seafarers, have insufficient epidemic control efforts. International shipowners will give priority to Chinese seafarers during the epidemic. Because they have seized a part of the market share, the supply remains unchanged but the demand increases, resulting in a relative shortage of Chinese seafarers.

Not only that, the rise in BDI has led to an increase in the number of ships held by Chinese shipowners (mainly from second-hand ships traded). The BDI index has risen from more than 1,400 points at the beginning of the year to more than 3,200 points currently, an increase of 128 points. It can be approximated that sea freight has more than doubled in half a year. This is a good opportunity for smart Chinese shipowners (including capital investors) to amplify their profits. As a result, a large number of second-hand ships were purchased by Chinese shipowners, and subsequently, the demand for Chinese crew members also increased significantly.

However, surveys show that the fundamental reason for the shortage of personnel in the shipping industry is at the source. The number of students applying for navigation majors has been hovering at a low level for many years compared with other majors. The main factors causing this phenomenon are not only It’s just about the working environment and whether the younger generation can endure hardship. The bigger reason is that the younger generation does not have a strong sense of identity with the shipbuilding industry in terms of values.

Guy Platten, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), said: “We are far from the manpower-enriched safety net that is needed to ensure the safety of the world’s food, fuel and medicine supplies.”

Platten said that only about 20 crew members around the world may have been vaccinated against the new crown vaccine. The world’s largest suppliers of crew members, including the Philippines, Indonesia and India, have insufficient COVID-19 vaccines, posing a further threat to the stability of the supply chain. Countries The government should prioritize essential transportation workers for vaccination. Platten also emphasized: “Coupled with the surge in labor demand, this is pushing global supply chains to the breaking point.

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According to reports, there is currently a sharp shortage of technically experienced officers, especially at the management level, while there is a shortage of management-level deck seafarers on tankers and offshore areas.

The good news is , the shipping industry has made good progress over the past five years, with seafarer turnover rates falling from 8 to 6, qualified seafarers being retained, and their number of years of service at sea also increasing, in fact, compared to estimates reported in 2015. Compared with the average age of management-level and operational-level seafarers, the number of foreign epidemics is still increasing by hundreds of thousands every day, and individual seafarers, families, shipowners, and ship management companies are all bearing a heavy burden. Huge pressure and worry. Since the location and time of the outbreak are unpredictable, the best way at the moment is for the company and crew to actively pay attention to it, continuously improve prevention and control measures, and involve crew members. * **Build a protective net to reduce everyone’s psychological pressure.

As the epidemic in India continues to spread, my country’s international crew members are gradually filling the vacancies in India, extending the time dimension, but there is no doubt that, If the epidemic improves and is stably controlled, Southeast Asian and Indian crews will return to the international crew market with their own advantages.

As far as the current situation is concerned, Chinese crews should provide services while taking good care of themselves. Good international and domestic shipowners and create a good reputation for Chinese seafarers.

The "2021 Seafarer Workforce Report" warns that there will be a shortage of seafarers by 2026. In order to meet the future demand for seafarers, the shipping industry It is necessary to actively promote the development of maritime careers. In the long run, the shipping industry needs to solve the problem from the source, improve young people’s awareness and recognition of sailing, and strengthen maritime education and training globally, focusing on various aspects required by the green and digitally connected industry.

We will need to address the real reasons we may see seafarers abandon shipping careers, must analyze and respond to seafarer retention trends, and continue to regularly monitor the global seafaring workforce to ensure the supply of STCW certified seafarers. Continue to keep pace with demand, otherwise global merchant shipping may pose new risks to global supply chains in five years.