Illustrate the role of China civil aviation in the national social and economic development with examples.

Investigation and study on the correlation between civil aviation passenger volume and local economy

Abstract: Since the reform and opening up, the development of civil aviation in China has made great progress. At the same time, the relationship between the development of civil aviation in China and China's economy is increasingly close. In the past, we paid more attention to the driving effect of local economic growth on civil aviation development, but in fact, civil aviation development and economic growth are complementary. Taking Shenyang, Dalian, Tianjin and Chongqing as examples, this paper draws data with the help of MTALAB software, calculates the correlation coefficient r between passenger volume and local GDP, and makes research and analysis, and then draws the conclusion that the civil aviation industry has a certain driving effect on the local economy, but the driving effect is not strong enough, and local civil aviation should adjust itself appropriately and timely to achieve the effect of mutual promotion and coordinated development with the local economy.

Keywords: correlation coefficient of economic development of civil aviation transportation volume

I. Research background

China's air passenger demand is growing rapidly, far exceeding the global civil aviation industry: from 200/kloc-0 to 20 16, China's civil aviation passenger traffic maintained a compound growth rate of 13.2%, while the global civil aviation passenger traffic growth rate was about 5.5% in the same period. Domestic air transport has developed rapidly and has become an important part of the national economy. By the end of 2008, the total transportation turnover of China's civil aviation industry had reached 3,665,438+100 million tons, with 654,38+85 million passengers and 3.96 million tons of cargo and mail, which were 120.5 times, 80.5 times and 6 1.9 times respectively. The total turnover of air transport and passenger turnover (excluding Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan Province Province) rose from the 37th place in 1978 to the second place in 2005, 2006 and 2007. With the continuous growth of air transport and the continuous expansion of industry scale, the civil aviation industry is playing an increasingly important role in China's national economy.

Through consulting domestic literature, it is found that the empirical research results of domestic scholars on civil aviation transportation industry are increasing year by year. From the empirical study of civil aviation passenger demand, many scholars have studied and analyzed it from the perspective of a single airport or between cities. Qian Qianyun (20 10) made an empirical analysis of the current situation of Shanghai's air transport, and drew the conclusion that the development of air transport is closely related to regional economic growth. By establishing the multiple regression equation between the demand of civil aviation passengers and the volume of cargo and mail, and using the relevant data of Shanghai's air transport development from 65438 to 0985 to 2008, this paper makes a step-by-step deletion and cointegration test and establishes an error correction model to explore the main factors affecting the development of Shanghai's air transport. The results show that the total import and export volume, industrial added value and per capita GDP have a long-term impact on the development of air transport, while the added value of tertiary industry and foreign exchange income from inbound tourism have a more significant short-term impact on the development of air transport. In the literature of studying the national civil aviation passenger demand, many scholars discussed the influence of GDP on the civil aviation passenger demand from the perspective of the relationship between civil aviation passenger demand and GDP [1]. Chen Lihua (2003) used the regression model of Y = A+B GDP to quantitatively predict the economic indicators of China's civil aviation passenger transport market in the future, such as passenger transport volume, domestic passenger transport volume, domestic passenger transport turnover, international passenger transport volume and international passenger transport turnover. However, in the process of modeling, the author only takes GDP as the only factor affecting air passenger volume for regression analysis, so the risk of missing variables is greater [2].

According to the investigation conclusion of domestic scholars, we can know that the demand of civil aviation passenger transport is closely related to the national economy. While the civil aviation passenger transport market is booming, China's economy is also growing rapidly. Economic growth will drive many projects to grow at the same time, including the choice of aircraft for travel modes. In the case of a certain economic foundation, fare is no longer the primary selection criterion, and time-saving and convenience will become more important. But on the other hand, is the connection between them only one-way? In other words, can civil aviation passenger transport affect the local economy?

Starting with the collected data, we will discuss the relationship between the demand of civil aviation passengers and local economic development.

Second, data collection and analysis methods

2. 1 data acquisition

The data in this paper were collected by Zhongjing.com and China Statistical Information Network.

2.2 Data analysis methods

In this paper, the curve fitting function toolbox of matlab software is used to get the function curve between passenger demand and GDP in five cities, and the correlation coefficient is calculated by matlab formula to get the correlation intensity between passenger demand and GDP.

For the convenience of analysis, we introduce the correlation coefficient R here. R is the quantity to study the linear correlation between variables and quantitatively describe the correlation between two variables. Generally, when r≥0.8, two variables can be regarded as highly correlated. 0.5≤r & lt； 0.8, which can be regarded as moderate correlation; 0.3≤r & lt； 0.5, low correlation; R < 0.3, which shows that the correlation between the two variables is extremely weak and can be regarded as irrelevant.

Thirdly, the analysis of the relationship between civil aviation passenger volume and GDP.

3. 1 case

3. 1. 1 Shenyang case study

Passenger volume and GDP data of civil aviation in Shenyang area

Fitting curve of civil aviation passenger volume and GDP in Shenyang area

It is found that the correlation coefficient r between Shenyang passenger traffic and GDP is 0.3083 by MATLAB drawing calculation, which belongs to low correlation.

As can be seen from the curve in the figure, Shenyang's GDP grew steadily before 20 13, and in the two years after 20 14, the economy has been in a downward trend after a slight rebound. As a regional hub airport in China, Shenyang Taoxian International Airport has successfully ranked among the tens of millions of airports in China. By the end of 20 17, there were 220 air routes, with passenger throughput173,400 passengers and cargo and mail throughput159,000 tons, up by 15.9% and 2.2% respectively, and the total overnight capacity exceeded 5 1. In the past three years, great progress has been made in hub construction, route network construction and service quality construction, and it is fully equipped with the ability and conditions for the development of aviation cities and airports. Shenyang has a solid foundation of traditional industries, rapid development of emerging industries and a leading aviation industry in China. It has a national aviation high-tech industrial base and a general aviation industry comprehensive demonstration zone. Relying on Taoxian International Airport, core enterprises such as Shenfei Civil Aircraft, Shen Fei International, China Southern Airlines and Shunfeng gathered in two demonstration zones of aviation industry strategic carriers, and an aviation industry chain covering key links such as R&D, manufacturing, transportation and security was initially formed.

According to the data, although the passenger volume of civil aviation in Shenyang has increased, railway transportation in Shenyang has also replaced road transportation and air transportation to some extent. The development of society is inseparable from the railway transportation infrastructure. In order to meet the needs of people's production and life, the railway transportation industry has developed rapidly. At the same time, the social cost of railway transportation is also increasing, which has a greater impact on energy and environment and a more prominent negative effect on social and economic development. Seeking the coordinated development of road transportation and economy has become an urgent practical problem [5].

3. 1.2 Dalian case study

Passenger volume and GDP data of civil aviation in Dalian area

Fitting curve of civil aviation passenger volume and GDP in Dalian area

It is found that the correlation coefficient R between passenger traffic and GDP in Dalian is 0.6049, which belongs to moderate correlation.

In 20 15 years in Dalian, after preliminary accounting, the annual GDP was 773160 million yuan, an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 45.33 billion yuan, an increase of 3%; The added value of the secondary industry was 358.08 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 369.75 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2%. The contribution rates of the three industries to economic growth are 3.9%, 10.6% and 85.5% respectively. From 265438 to 2006, Dalian's annual GDP was 6810.2 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 46.28 billion yuan, up by 4.1%; The added value of the secondary industry was 284.99 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7%; The added value of tertiary industry was 349.76 billion yuan, up by 6.6%. The tertiary industry structure is 6.8:4 1.8:5 1.4, and its contribution rate to economic growth is 4.4%, 43.6% and 52% respectively. We can see that in 15, the tertiary industry accounted for 85.5% of the economic structure, while in 16, it accounted for 52% in the declining year, and its proportion declined. Then we can see that when the city develops to a certain extent and all walks of life grow at the same time, Dalian's tertiary industry has insufficient stamina. As a passenger carrier, civil aviation is an important part of the tertiary industry, and its development level affects the development of tertiary industry, tourism, navigation transit and business tourism.

As can be seen from the curve in the figure, Dalian's GDP is almost the same as Shenyang's, and it grew steadily before 20 13, and the economy has been in a downward trend after a slight rebound in two years after 20 14. With the deepening of Dalian's opening to the outside world, the steady progress of shipping center construction and the acceleration of urbanization in the whole region, Dalian's civil aviation industry has shown a rapid, sustained and hot development trend in recent years. In 20 10, Dalian International Airport became the first 16 airport in China and the first "10 million-class" airport in Northeast China. 20 1 1 year, the passenger throughput exceeded120,000, which to some extent marked the arrival of Dalian aviation era [6].

Although Dalian's civil aviation meets the international airport use standards, with 25 international and domestic routes, mainly large flights, 365,438+0 domestic navigable cities and international routes reaching Japan, North Korea, the United States, Canada, Europe, CIS and other countries and regions, Dalian's maritime transportation modes are also very developed. There is a special pipeline for transporting Daqing crude oil in Dalian, which goes directly to the Nianyuwan Wharf of Dalian Port. Eight international container routes to Hong Kong, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe and other places, eight domestic passenger routes and non-scheduled tourist ship routes have been opened by sea. The main transportation network consisting of land, sea and air provides superior conditions for the development of Dalian Port.

At present, Dalian Port has trade and transportation relations with more than 40 countries and regions, and has established sister ports with Canadian ports of Kitakyushu, Yokohama, Mu Fu, Toyama, Oakland, Houston and Vancouver. Due to its unique geographical location, Dalian's shipping is very developed, but Dalian is located in the center of air routes in Northeast Asia, adjacent to Russia, Japan, North Korea and South Korea. There are nearly 100 cities within 500 kilometers of Fiona Fang, backed by the Northeast (three provinces and one district) and two economic zones around Bohai Sea, which is the best location for the development of general aviation in northern China. For example, Dalian is surrounded by the sea on three sides, and air transportation is the fastest and most efficient mode of transportation if it leads to the southwest or cross-sea traffic with Jiaodong Peninsula, Japan, North Korea and South Korea.

According to international experience, the per capita GDP of $4,000 is the critical point for the rapid growth of private flight demand. In 20 12, the population of Northeast China 1. 1 100 million, and the per capita GDP exceeds 7000 dollars. Dalian has a population of more than 6 million, and its per capita GDP has exceeded $654.38+500,000. Dalian is also the city with the highest degree of opening to the outside world in Northeast China. In 20 12, Dalian's total import and export commodities accounted for 35% of the total in Northeast China, of which exports accounted for 42% of the total in Northeast China, which led to frequent business activities and high-end international conferences. The development of general aviation has a good development foundation.

Air transport is an important part of the construction of Dalian International Shipping Center. With the continuous improvement of transportation systems such as sea, land, air and pipelines, the modern logistics industry has accelerated industrial agglomeration, the industrial level has been continuously improved, the collection and distribution system has become increasingly developed, the variety and amount of transactions have increased rapidly, and logistics, people flow and business flow have become more and more intensive, so the demand for general aviation airports and operational services has become more and more urgent. Therefore, in addition to shipping and other modes of transportation, the civil aviation industry has also promoted the economic development of Dalian to a certain extent. However, due to economic saturation, the northeast economy began to decline slightly after reaching its peak, which also reminded people to start changing production methods and keep pace with the times. After a period of accidental changes and adjustments in the industrial structure, GDP will rebound to a certain extent.

3. 1.3 Tianjin case study

Passenger volume and GDP data of civil aviation in Tianjin area

Fitting curve of civil aviation passenger volume and GDP in Tianjin area

According to the general law of development, the growth of GDP is often accompanied by the growth of civil aviation passenger traffic, which is also confirmed by the analysis of Tianjin and Chongqing. By drawing and calculating with MATLAB, it is found that the correlation coefficient r between Tianjin civil aviation passenger traffic and GDP is 0.829 1, which is a strong correlation.

As can be seen from the figure, Tianjin's GDP is rising now.

There are 1 1 airlines in Tianjin, among which Air China (5), Hainan Airlines (6), Okay (2) and Shandong Airlines have set up Tianjin bases. Shanghai Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines, Xiamen Airlines and Spring Airlines all have sales offices. In 2005, the passenger load factor of all airlines operating Tianjin route reached about 70%. Hainan Airlines has decided to set up Grand China Express Airlines, the largest regional airline in China, in Tianjin, and will invest 5-7 regional planes in the near future. Air China has decided to add 1-2 B737 to Tianjin. China Eastern Airlines will add a B737 aircraft this year. JAL, ANA, South Korea, Asiana and other foreign airlines have opened flights to Tianjin, and South Korea, Asiana, JAL and Singapore Airlines also plan to increase cargo flights. It can be seen that the development prospect of Tianjin's aviation industry is still good. With the continuous increase of passenger flow, it has also brought certain promotion to Tianjin's economic development.

3. 1.4 Chongqing case study

Chongqing civil aviation passenger volume and GDP data

Fitting curve of Chongqing civil aviation passenger volume and GDP

Through MATLAB drawing calculation, the correlation coefficient R between Chongqing civil aviation passenger volume and GDP is 0.9829, which belongs to strong correlation.

As can be seen from the image, Chongqing's GDP is rising now.

2010165438+10/4 the State Council and the Central Military Commission issued the Opinions on Deepening the Reform of Low-altitude Airspace Management in China, and decided to gradually liberalize the airspace below 1000 meters, allowing light fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters and other small aircraft to fly. Chongqing began to lay out the general aviation industry. On 20 12, Liangjiang Aviation Investment Group was established, specializing in attracting investment, industrial investment and environmental construction, and breaking through the general aviation to realize the industry from scratch. Up to now, nearly 20 aviation industry integration projects have been introduced in Chongqing, with social investment exceeding 30 billion yuan. The whole industrial chain development pattern of "manufacturing+operation+service" for navigation industry, "complete machine+parts" for transportation aviation industry and "R&D+ manufacturing+supply chain" for new composite metal materials has been initially established, and five "uniqueness" have been set in China successively: the only pilot project of the whole navigation industry chain designated by the National Development and Reform Commission. The only park that is studying 3 brands, 6 models and 1 model, the only low-altitude flight service guarantee system that operates in a networked way, the only financial leasing company that is open to navigation, and the only province and city that covers private business license training, pilot retraining and on-the-job route training. From this point of view, Chongqing's aviation industry is gradually being taken seriously. With the continuous improvement of people's living standards and the continuous increase of civil aviation passenger traffic, Chongqing's GDP has been improved to a certain extent.

3.2 Comprehensive analysis:

From the above data, we can know that the GDP of civil aviation passenger transport first rises and then falls, but from the data analysis, Chongqing and Tianjin are still in the rising stage and have not yet reached the turning point of this city. The sustained growth of civil aviation shows that our tertiary industry is developing strongly, but the decline of per capita GDP also shows that there are some problems in the development of primary and secondary industries.

The city samples are municipalities directly under the central government and prefecture-level cities, and whether the mode of transportation is by sea. The influencing factors, the competitive influence of transportation modes and geographical differences are all reflected in the sample selection.

The process of national economic growth will inevitably promote the development of all walks of life in society, and all walks of life will also promote the overall economic growth of the country in their own development and growth process. As far as civil aviation and China's economic growth are concerned, the relationship between them is bound to be complementary. However, the promotion of the two will not be completely equal, and the development of civil aviation will undoubtedly promote economic growth. First of all, to promote local economic development, the role of aviation services and transportation industry in driving and promoting the economy of the airport area has become increasingly prominent in recent years. Civil aviation industry is a large-scale modern industry, including a large number of posts and positions. The latest statistics released by CNN 2011show that there are as many as 20 million jobs directly related to the aviation industry worldwide, and the development of the civil aviation industry has greatly promoted the employment level of the local labor force. At the same time, the development of civil aviation has also promoted the accelerated development of related industries, such as tourism. The development of civil aviation industry can not only promote the better and faster development of local original industries and industries, but also promote the emergence of new economic growth points through the development of aviation industry.

However, in several cities where we sampled and established mathematical models, we found that in Shenyang, Yiwu and Dalian, the total volume of civil aviation transportation increased year by year, but their own economies reached a peak. In other words, when the urban development is not mature enough, the development of civil aviation and urban development are positively related, but with the development of the city, the correlation between them is getting lower and lower. Compared with developed countries, China's civil aviation started late, and its operation mode and system mostly depend on foreign development mode, with a low degree of independent development. China does not have its own system and autonomy in many aspects. Not only is its development subject to people, but does the current civil aviation operation have the characteristics of China? Have we embarked on our own road of civil aviation development? The overall development level of China's civil aviation industry is average, and the industry development is not mature enough. General aviation and other fields have developed very little, and civil aviation is only the carrier of passenger and cargo transportation. Then when the passenger volume of civil aviation is increasing year by year, but the local per capita GDP is declining, we should start from two places as the starting point of the problem. First, is the contribution of the tertiary industry to the local economy low, and is the development of the primary and secondary industries cold? Second, whether the development level of the civil aviation industry does not match the development level of the city and whether it can make a significant contribution to the local economic development.

Civil aviation is not only a public industry serving the public, but also can be incorporated into the overall planning of local economic construction through reasonable planning and design. The peak inflection points in Shenyang and Dalian are also of reference significance to Chongqing and Tianjin, where inflection points have not yet appeared. For Tianjin, this year's development is a little tired, and the urban development is cold, and the inflection point may not appear in the short term. At this stage, Tianjin's civil aviation transportation capacity can no longer meet the development needs of the tertiary industry and has become a shortcoming of industrial development. The focus of the work should be more on exploring its own diversified development to play a more driving role in cities, such as Singapore Camphor Airport. For Chongqing, with good Internet operation, Chongqing has undoubtedly become a holiday destination in the hearts of a new generation. This has undoubtedly played a powerful role in promoting the development of the tertiary industry in Chongqing, and Chongqing is also actively building a tourist-oriented city to carry out this necessary cultural enrichment and infrastructure construction. There are three airports in Chongqing, Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, Chongqing Wanzhou Wuqiao Airport and Chongqing Qianjiang Wulingshan Airport. Jiangbei International Airport is a 4F-class civil international airport and one of the eight regional hub airports in China. 20 13 and 12 became the five air ports in China that implemented the 72-hour transit visa-free policy, with cargo and mail throughput of 165438+ 10,000 tons and 373,000 aircraft movements. The three major airports in Chongqing can ensure the annual passenger throughput of 47.56 million passengers, thus serving the positioning of Chongqing as a cultural tourism city. Chongqing should pay more attention to whether the correlation coefficient between civil aviation volume and urban development is declining, so as to adjust it in time and better cooperate with urban development.

The aviation industry in Tianjin and Chongqing has been developing steadily, which has attracted the attention of the government and citizens. Moreover, the transportation modes of Tianjin and Chongqing are less competitive than those of similar coastal cities in Dalian, which is also an aspect of the aviation industry's contribution to urban GDP. However, with the continuous development of the times, our industrial structure will also change, and the GDP of Tianjin and Chongqing may also decline, so that we can better understand the trend of the times and improve the development of the aviation industry.

Through investigation and study, the emergence of inflection point means that the correlation coefficient between civil aviation transportation and local economic development has obviously decreased. By studying the change of correlation coefficient, we can infer whether the local economic development structure and civil aviation development are in harmony with urban development. Timely adjustment, in order to achieve coordinated development and mutual promotion.

Four. conclusion

With the help of the correlation between civil aviation volume and local economic development, we can reasonably speculate on the local economic layout and the development of various industries and take corresponding measures in advance.

Judging from the growth rate, when the local economy develops rapidly, the demand for civil aviation passenger transport also increases rapidly, and when the development is slow, the demand for civil aviation passenger transport will also decrease relatively. That is to say, when the urban development is not mature enough, the development of civil aviation and urban development are positively related, but with the development of the city, the correlation between them is getting lower and lower. The contribution of civil aviation to local economy will gradually decline. For example, the GDP of Tianjin and Chongqing is still developing, the passenger traffic of civil aviation is also rising, and the local economy is also growing, both of which develop together, while the economy of Shenyang and Dalian is in a state of decline, and the correlation coefficient between them is obviously lower than that of Tianjin and Chongqing.

Through the relationship between the development of civil aviation passenger demand and local economic growth described above, we can draw a conclusion that, at least so far, the development of civil aviation industry is positively related to local economic growth nationwide, but it is not a simple linear relationship, and the two are complementary. At present, the role of local economic growth in promoting civil aviation passenger demand is far greater than that of the development of civil aviation passenger demand in promoting local economic growth. Generally speaking, although the development of civil aviation industry has promoted the development of local economy to a certain extent, its role in promoting the overall increment of local economic development is not particularly obvious. When the local economy is maturing and developing rapidly, it is difficult for China civil aviation to keep pace with it.

We can count the proportion of civil aviation industry in local economy every year, let it be A, and judge the development of local economy and civil aviation industry through the size of A. For example, the local economy has developed rapidly, but A has not changed or declined, which is inconsistent with the forecast model. This shows that the local civil aviation industry is developing abnormally or the economic source is single, and then analyzing the reasons to improve the situation will help the economic development of the region. For example, a city has discovered a large number of rare minerals, and its economy has increased by selling these minerals, but the civil aviation industry has not developed. After the civil aviation industry has invested in a certain economy, the ore sales channels have been broadened, while the economy has grown, A has become larger, which has led to the expansion of other sideline industries such as steel mills, and the local A value and economic development have been counted year by year. Until A is normal, it can be said that the local economy has developed steadily, improving the unfavorable conditions of single economic source. We can also judge the degree of economic development of a city by the rate of change of a value. With the decrease of a value, we can know that the local economic development tends to be saturated, which can also be used as one of the indicators to evaluate the local economy.

Therefore, we still face some challenges for the future development of the civil aviation industry. First of all, civil aviation transportation enterprise is a very complex enterprise, which needs not only a strong strategic management system, but also perfect strategic implementation steps. And the emergency plan after the strategy is completed. Only in this way can we ensure the effective implementation of the strategy. Improve the industry supervision system to ensure the efficient operation of enterprises, actively absorb the reform experience of the United States, Japan and other countries with more developed civil aviation industry, and improve the successful experience of relevant laws and regulations [8]. Secondly, in order to ensure the vitality of China's air transport industry in the increasingly fierce market competition, we must actively integrate into the market, actively face the difficulties brought about by air transport liberalization, and actively participate in the international market. In order to effectively participate in the international market, civil aviation enterprises must strive to find suitable cooperative enterprises, establish a win-win market system and improve the air transport network. Only in this way can we learn from each other's strong points and promote the development of China's civil aviation industry with advanced experience [9]. Faced with the decline of GDP in some cities, civil aviation enterprises need to carry out strategic transformation and strive to improve transportation capacity and public satisfaction with civil aviation services [10]. Vigorously develop general aviation, a strategic emerging industry, covering the whole industrial chain of general aircraft R&D, manufacturing, market operation, comprehensive support and extended services. To sum up, in the face of the constant changes in the competitiveness and GDP of the civil aviation transportation industry under the background of globalization, China should vigorously develop the civil aviation transportation industry, constantly improve the management system, use reasonable development strategies, and enhance the overall strength of the civil aviation transportation industry from different angles, so as to survive in the market, constantly learn from foreign advanced systems and technologies, and put forward development measures in line with the actual situation of China [1 1