Why do you feel that there are fewer and fewer people in Dongguan?

I have lived in Dongguan for 22 years. To say that Dongguan’s population is large is absolutely false. Look at the flow of people in various towns and industrial zones, look at the flow of people in various bus stations and railway stations, look at the buses that are almost empty running all over the streets... In the past, many towns and districts had very large foreign-funded enterprises, such as Yu Yuan, Tai Sheng, VTech, Samsung... As soon as these companies moved away, the large area immediately became empty, including the surrounding small shops, rental houses, barber shops, food stalls... they were all empty. Therefore, how could the population be large?

From the perspective of demographic data, in 2020, Dongguan's permanent population was 10.4666 million, breaking the 10 million mark for the first time. After Guangzhou and Shenzhen, it became the third large city in Guangdong Province with a population of 10 million.

Dongguan’s population is not only not decreasing, but also growing.

But those who have lived in Dongguan for a long time do feel that there are fewer and fewer people there. Especially in the industrial zones of towns and villages, this feeling is even more obvious: a large number of factory buildings are empty, and the entire commercial street is deserted.

This is really a strange phenomenon. Either the demographics are wrong, or the migrants are invisible.

Dongguan is located in the hinterland of Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Because the manufacturing industry started early, the industrial chain is relatively complete, the cost of land, factory buildings, labor, etc. is low, and the policy incentives are strong, it has attracted countless domestic and foreign companies. Capital and population came in, and they were all in the limelight for a while.

Dongguan was once known as the "Manufacturing Capital" and "Global Factory" with many labor-intensive enterprises and large factories employing tens of thousands of people. The huge population base has also driven the service industry, created a large number of job opportunities, and attracted more people. At that time, every holiday in the town was like going to a market, and people in the miscellaneous supermarkets were always crowded.

Grass grows in these places now.

There are many reasons for population loss. The policy of vacating cages and replacing birds has eliminated many enterprises with low technical content and heavy pollution; the rise of the Yangtze River Delta has diverted a large number of migrant populations; and the lower costs of neighboring countries have led to the I have gone to many large factories with tens of thousands of people, including Baoyuan, Samsung, Xinke...

Dongguan is an emerging city that emerged after the reform and opening up. It has a shallow cultural heritage and poor inclusiveness. It is difficult for the outside population to find a sense of belonging. Coupled with domestic and foreign competition, advantages are gradually lost and urban development is weak, making it difficult to retain people.

If you want to leave Dongguan to make a living, go to the Yangtze River Delta. People who went to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai from Dongguan have never looked back or missed it.

Let’s talk about society in a few words!

The city of Dongguan once developed by taking advantage of the favorable geographical location when the time came. At that time, our country was in the midst of the spring breeze of reform. Because Dongguan was close to Hong Kong, it took advantage of the momentum and became a city. Economically strong city. However, if Hong Kong succeeds, Hong Kong will fail! The current world economic environment is not good, Hong Kong's economy is shrinking, and Dongguan has naturally been affected.

In the early days of Dongguan’s development, Hong Kong and Taiwanese businessmen set up factories here. They were all low-tech, labor-intensive enterprises. They were either OEMs or copycats. Of course, they improved the city’s economic level at that time. But today, when our country's economy and science and technology are highly developed, this is actually lagging behind! In addition, the city’s initial efforts to attract investment were excessive, resulting in no room for development now, making it difficult to turn around.

Therefore, due to the economic recession in Hong Kong, it is difficult for enterprises in Dongguan to develop. The difficulties of enterprises have led to a decrease in wages and benefits. The decrease in benefits has led to the loss of urban labor. The loss of manpower has led to an increase in the cost of insufficient human resources for enterprises, and further decline of enterprises, thus leading to a trend. Start-up companies with weak capabilities will naturally go bankrupt if they have no room for development.

As an old Dongguan native, I would like to say something different from the questioner:

The permanent population of Dongguan in 2007 was 7.1702 million, and the permanent population in 2016 was 8.2614 million The number of people, 8.3425 million in 2018, has been at a fairly stable value.

Why do some friends feel that there are fewer and fewer people? First, look for the reasons from the background of Dongguan's development

Dongguan is roughly divided into two major stages: before transformation and upgrading---after transformation and upgrading

Before transformation and upgrading:

At the beginning of reform and opening up, Dongguan used the capital and technology of "big ships" such as Hong Kong and Taiwanese businessmen, combined with its own labor force, land cost and other advantages, and "borrowed ships to go to sea" and rushed to every corner of the world. (Representative incident: At the end of July 1978, Hong Kong businessman Zhang Zimi came to Taiping Garment Factory to inspect handbag manufacturing technology and seek cooperation opportunities. The first "three-to-one" enterprise in the mainland - Taiping Handbag Factory was born immediately. This There are image displays in the Dongguan Exhibition Hall)

After transformation and upgrading:

Dongguan is the first in the country to process enterprises with supplied materials. The new model of suspending production and converting it into a legal person enterprise vigorously promotes the transformation and upgrading of processing trade.

In 2016, Dongguan became one of the comprehensive pilot cities in the country for building a new open economic system;

In 2017, the Dongguan Municipal Government issued the "Doubling Plan" in Document No. ideas of side structural reform.

The general background conditions have changed, and the population distribution and job distribution have also changed

During the three-to-one supplementary processing period, factories, cheap labor, and various surrounding small shops were the main force;

Then after transformation and upgrading: factory renovation, normal service, intelligent manufacturing, and large business district.

The feeling that there are fewer and fewer people is relative: when you go to an old industrial area, you will indeed feel that there are fewer people, but when you go to Wanda Plaza, China World Trade Center, new office buildings, and e-commerce parks, you will feel that there are fewer people. Feel like there are a lot more people?

Why do you feel that there are fewer and fewer people in Dongguan?

Dongguan originally did not have a large population. When we saw a lot of people moving around in the past, it was rural people who came to work. Why are there fewer and fewer people? There are following reasons.

In the past few years, fewer and fewer people have gone out to work. Some people have earned some capital and started a business at home. Some people are unwilling to leave their hometown to work without starting a business at home. Working outside can make a lot of money all year round. If you don’t have much money, it’s better to do it at home.

The factory wages in Dongguan are low, and some people who work outside have gone to other places. People will jump to the climax. Dongguan is a garbage place, how can it retain many people? It is better to farm at home in Dongguan. In the next few years, no one will be seen shopping in the city. From now on, the city will not be as lively as the countryside and will just be an empty city.

Dongguan used to have a lot of migrant workers, but now everyone has returned to his hometown to start a business and farm. Without migrant workers, the people in the city will be left in dire straits. Even poorer than rural people.

Let me tell you why statistics show that the population of Dongguan has increased, but in real life it has become less and less. Grid management was implemented during the epidemic last year, and almost everyone required real-name authentication and registration to come to Wanwan. The authenticity of the data is relatively correct! More than 8 million people. [Wit] But what about the previous statistics! It's based on the company's factory declaration and the landlord's report. That one is very fake and very underreported! [Face covering] If there are 100 people in a company’s factory, it is reported as 20 people. Why is it reported as underreported? Anyone who runs a company or factory knows this, but last year the epidemic was managed through a grid and strict door-to-door real-name authentication and registration was implemented. There were 30 people in the factory, yes! The company has 10 more people than in previous years, and the population data has increased [laughing and crying] I have been in Dongguan for more than 20 years, and I have never registered the data of my family members in Dongguan before. It has only been strictly registered in the past two years. How many people were not counted in Dongguan before? Almost all factories underpay, and rental housing underpays... [covers face] [laughs and cries] It is inevitable that fewer and fewer workers will be beaten... After all, who of the younger generation will still work in factories? In the township, almost all the people walking on the road are middle-aged people... The urban area is better, there are more young people, [face covering] I can hardly see any pretty girls in the township! All women! [covers face] Damn it!

Haha, are there really few people in Dongguan? There are a lot fewer foreign-invested factories and a lot more mainland companies! There are fewer factories, more high-rise buildings, fewer migrant workers, and more permanent residents! This year's census has already raised 10,000 people. There are fewer people in shops on the road and more people staying at home.

There are a lot of cars now, and they are parked everywhere. I heard that every town needs to build parking lots. What used to be an hour's drive now takes 1.5 hours. I heard that the factories are all full. The factories now built have eight floors, and some have eleven floors. In some new factory areas, locals are rushing to build houses for rent, priced at 500 for one room and 800 for two rooms.

Dongguan is currently building a ring with six vertical, six horizontal and three links, consisting of 12 expressways and seven expressways, with a total length of 550 kilometers. In 2035, 12 subways will be built, six connecting to Shenzhen, three to Guangzhou, six intercity railways, seven high-speed rail stations, and a train department. Will there be fewer people in this city?

Nowadays, housing prices are being suppressed. If not suppressed, they will still rise. The above infrastructure is only part of it. Primary schools, middle schools, universities, hospitals, etc. are all being built rapidly. Writing this makes it clear why some smart money came to Dongguan.

Many of the industries in Dongguan ten years ago have disappeared. At that time, they were all processing industries with many people. Now is the age of robots, and the people who use them are all technical talents. Talented people from a vibrant city rush here. I’m really not afraid of the so-called saying that there are fewer and fewer people. It only proves that they don’t understand Dongguan.

What you said is not accurate. It’s not that there are fewer and fewer people in Dongguan, but that there are fewer and fewer people in the first place.

In total, I have been coming to Dongguan for almost 20 years, and I can say that I have witnessed the changes in this city with my own eyes. Without talking about other aspects, I will only talk about the population aspect mentioned in your question. After all, I am an ordinary citizen, just here to give a question and answer, not an economist giving comprehensive lectures.

First of all, we need to figure out whether there are more and more people in Dongguan or fewer and fewer people. Who does this "people" refer to?

What we are talking about now is that there are fewer and fewer people in Dongguan, which refers to all people in Dongguan, including the permanent population and the migrant population.

When talking about more and more people, it simply refers to the permanent population, not all "people". This completely changes the concept. Or from another perspective, it is to quietly avoid talking about the massive reduction in the floating population.

More than ten years ago, the streets of Dongguan were full of people.

Just take two places where I have lived.

1. High tide and low tide.

In the old Gaobu, the street behind Jiarong Plaza was the most prosperous central area of ??Gaobu. Every evening and Sunday, it was so crowded that it was hard to walk. The shopping malls and shops on both sides can't even describe the business as booming.

Now if you go over there and take a look, many small shops have signs of "rental shops for rent". After seven or eight o'clock in the evening, you can still see a few people in what was once such a bustling commercial street. ?

Not to mention the abortions at Yue Yuen Factory. In the area behind Diyong, there used to be a noisy night market street. It was impossible to walk at night when shopping. It was crowded with people. The transfer fee for a small shop was exorbitantly high, and you had to queue up to get a haircut. Since Yue Yuen Factory has moved its branches one after another in recent years, if you take a look again, you will see that the large night market behind the mall and the large factory buildings of Yue Yuen Branch are now overgrown with weeds.

2. Shijie Hengjiao.

In the past, in the Hengjiao ditch area, the factories on both sides were full of people, and the dormitories were packed with seven or eight people per room. When I went shopping at night, there were so many people that I would bump into them if I wasn't careful. Girl's ass in front. Now you go and take a look.

How many people did those big factories in the past, Wuzhu, Dongju, Delta, etc. have when they were at their peak, and how many people do they have now.

This is actually easy to understand. Just look at how many commercial buildings have been built in Dongguan in the past ten years.

In the past, Wanjiang, beyond the Gaobu intersection, was a vast wasteland, but now it is filled with real estates. Needless to say, Nancheng.

Many outsiders, because of the need to live in Dongguan, or to take advantage of the housing price, or to study for their children, are gritting their teeth and paying high prices for housing. After owning a house, will some of them be converted into local household registrations, accumulating a portion every year, and will the permanent population gradually increase? It can be said that as long as the real estate is still under construction, the permanent population will continue to increase.

This forms a unique phenomenon. Most of the local people have built buildings one after another in their own villages, where their families live. As for those high-priced real estate projects, almost most of them were sold to outsiders. If you go to any real estate building, most of the things you hear are in Mandarin.

Along with the slow growth of the permanent population, the migrant population is decreasing sharply. Why?

I will tell you based on my experience in Dongguan for 20 years.

As the older generation of workers grow older and can no longer work, they have returned to their hometowns one after another, or are on their way back to their hometowns.

Many middle-aged working people, with some savings, choose to return to their hometown to start a business. In addition, environmental protection and other aspects are becoming more and more strict, factory rents are high, and labor costs are rising. Many factories are moving to the mainland one after another, or are planning to move.

Fewer and fewer of the younger generation are willing to come back to work. Including my own son, he ran directly to the Yangtze River Delta with his classmates.

In the past ten years, Dongguan has undergone earth-shaking changes. There are many real estates and the roads are getting better and better. As an achievement of urban construction, it is also obvious to all. Especially the rise of the Songshan Lake area is also a brand new business card of Dongguan.

From a population perspective, the number of people living in industrial areas has dropped sharply, while the number of people living in real estate has increased.

In other words, the permanent population has indeed increased, while the floating population has decreased significantly.

But in terms of the total population, the increase in the permanent population cannot keep up with the decrease in the floating population. Therefore, what you see is that there are fewer and fewer people in Dongguan.

Friends, what do you think of this population issue? Welcome to chat and communicate with me in the comment area.

There are too many rubbish bosses. The boss of Xinsheng Flocking Factory in Dalingshan Yangwu Fourth Industrial Zone said I could earn about 4,500, and my two-month salary was 6,800, with an average of 3,400 a month. I'm as tired as a dog from 8 to 8 o'clock every day. It's so screwed up. Even if I want to take a photo of the payroll after I pay, I won't be allowed to take it. It's so fucking screwed. The boss is from Jiangxi. He's so screwed. I wanted to work until the Chinese New Year. When you see a boss like this, why would you want to continue working? The salary at home is not as high as in your hometown