There is a shortage of upstream materials in the power battery industry. Is High Nickel Battery the Next Future?

65438+1October 17, the 20th18th annual meeting of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance and the seminar on collaborative innovation of power batteries was held in Beijing. Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology gave an answer to the progress and future development direction of the power battery industry in China on 20 18.

Upstream materials are tight.

New Guo Bin said that in 20 18, China's power battery shipments and installed capacity remained the world's leading, and achieved good results in improving energy density and reducing battery costs: the energy density of ternary batteries increased to 265Wh/kg, and the cost fell below 1 yuan /Wh; The specific energy of lithium iron phosphate battery reaches 160Wh/kg, and the cost is reduced to 0.7 yuan /Wh. In addition, industrial concentration has been significantly improved, industrial investment has returned to rationality, and blind expansion projects have been greatly reduced.

However, there are still many shortcomings in the power battery industry in China. Among them, the shortage of upstream material resources has become a restrictive factor for the development of power batteries in China: cobalt and nickel are scarce resources in China, and the reserves of cobalt resources in China only account for 1. 14% of the global total reserves. Nickel products in China are mainly nickel pig iron, and nickel ore imports mainly come from the Philippines and Indonesia. New Guo Bin believes that the market space of power battery is huge, and it can be said that whoever grasps the upstream resources will grasp the initiative in future competition.

Enterprises compete to lay out nickel metal.

In recent years, the rapid development of new energy vehicles in China has led to the increasing demand for power batteries, and also put forward higher requirements for the energy density of power batteries.

At present, many domestic enterprises are laying out NCM8 1 1 batteries. NCM8 1 1 is a new type of high nickel lithium ion battery material-ternary nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) cathode material, which has the advantages of high energy density, good cycle stability and moderate cost. The ratio of nickel, cobalt and manganese in NCM8 1 1 is 8: 1. Previously, contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. announced that it would increase the use of nickel and reduce the demand for cobalt in 20 19 years.

In 20 18, battery companies such as Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., Tianjin Co., Ltd. and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. have announced that the NCM8 1 1 battery will be mass-produced and listed in 20 19. Taking Guo Xuan Hi-Tech as an example, the company announced in June 10 that the company's ternary 8 1 1/gwh flexible packaging line will have production capacity in June 20 19.

Based on this, upstream material enterprises and battery enterprises have seized the upstream material resources. Recently, Meg announced that her subsidiary Jingmen Meg, together with Xinzhan International, Guangdong Bangpu, Indonesia IMIP Park and Hanahe Xingye, formally laid the foundation stone for the project of producing new energy materials from Indonesia laterite nickel mine. Gemme's newly established joint venture company in Indonesia has recently completed the establishment registration with an authorized capital of US$ 2,654,380,000. In addition, Sumitomo Metal, Japan's largest nickel smelter, also revealed in 20 18 165438 10 that it would invest more than 200 billion yen to build a nickel smelter in Indonesia.

With the increase of nickel production, the shortage of nickel will be alleviated to some extent next year. According to the prediction of Sumitomo Metal, the largest nickel smelter in Japan, the global shortage of nickel metal will be reduced from 93,000 tons this year to 49,000 tons in 2065,438+09 due to the increase of primary metal output of global suppliers and the increase of low-grade nickel-containing pig iron (NPI) in Indonesia.

The high nickel battery has yet to mature, and the supply of cobalt metal still needs to be guaranteed.

In terms of cobalt, it is expected that battery companies will continue to reduce the proportion of cobalt in battery materials in the future. This is because 60% of the global cobalt supply comes from Congo, and a series of vicious incidents broke out in Congo in 20 18, which led to the shortage of local supply. Moreover, cobalt metal was listed as a "strategic mineral" by the Congolese government in September 20 18, and the mining tax will be increased from the original 3.5% to 10%. This will inevitably lead to an increase in the pressure on battery companies that have already suffered from the double pressure of sharp rise in raw material prices and price reduction by OEMs. Enterprises vigorously develop high nickel batteries to reduce the negative impact of cobalt on the production of power batteries.

According to SMM observation, cobalt metal is in surplus recently, and there is no large-scale transaction in the near future. Most market participants believe that the oversupply of 20 19 is intensifying, so the willingness to stock up is not strong. Foreign media prices are also moving closer to domestic prices. However, according to the prediction of the Joint Research Center for Scientific Consultation of the European Commission, with the development of new energy vehicles constantly stimulating the growth of demand for power batteries, cobalt metal will be in short supply from 2025.

Although battery enterprises are actively deploying high-nickel batteries, at present, the output of NCM8 1 1 only accounts for 10% of power batteries, and it is expected that it will take some time to completely reduce cobalt and nickel. Therefore, the supply of cobalt still needs to be guaranteed. Previously, BMW, BASF SE, Samsung SD and Samsung Electronics launched a joint cobalt pilot project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, aiming at improving the mining conditions of cobalt ore and ensuring the supply of raw materials for power batteries. From March 2065438 to March 2008, China Jubilee Technology also built a cobalt oxide smelting project with an annual output of 3,000 tons of crude hydrogen in Kruwich, Jinlualaba Province, Congo, through its wholly-owned grandson company Jubilee Technology (Congo) Cobalt Industry Co., Ltd.

Source: Energy Trends Energy Storage

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