What is the employment trend of secondary vocational school graduates? What career choices should secondary vocational school students establish?

The Ministry of Education proposed that the enrollment of secondary vocational schools in 2005 increased by 654.38 million to 6.5 million on the basis of 2004. After several years of hard work, by 2007, the scale of secondary vocational education and ordinary high school education will be roughly the same. The annual enrollment scale of secondary vocational schools depends on the scale of junior high school graduates, the enrollment rate of junior high school graduates and the proportion of vocational education in senior high school. According to this, experts predict that the enrollment scale of secondary vocational education in China will be close to 8 million by 2007.

In the next few years, according to the trend that the scale of secondary vocational education is roughly equal to that of ordinary high schools, what is the corresponding changing trend of the scale of secondary vocational education in various provinces and regions in China? What is the balance between "supply" and "demand" relative to the existing enrollment scale? What's the difference between regions? These problems are directly related to the formulation and implementation of the development strategy of vocational education in China and various regions.

Scale forecast

In the next few years, the annual enrollment scale of secondary vocational schools depends on the scale of junior high school graduates, the enrollment rate of junior high school graduates and the proportion of vocational education in senior high school.

Source scale of junior high school graduates

From the national situation, after 2005, the total number of junior high school graduates will slowly fall back. By 2007, it will drop to about 2 1 10,000 people; In 20 10, this number further dropped to less than 20 million. Among them, nearly half of China's provinces and autonomous regions, mainly in the eastern coastal and central areas, will see a decrease in the number of junior high school graduates in the next few years. At the same time, the number of junior high school graduates in China 1 1 province, which is dominated by western and underdeveloped areas, shows a rapid growth momentum.

Enrolment rate of junior high school graduates

On the one hand, from the overall situation of the country, it is increasing year by year. In 2002, the average enrollment rate of junior high school graduates in China was 58%, 8 percentage points higher than that of 1999, with an average annual increase of 2.7 percentage points. From the analysis of the current development trend, in the next few years, with the continuous improvement of population quality requirements in various provinces and regions and the strengthening of macro-control, the growth rate of junior high school graduates in China will remain at about 3 percentage points per year, reaching 73% in 2007 and further rising to 82% in 20 10.

On the other hand, judging from the situation in different provinces, there is a big gap in the enrollment rate. In 2002, the enrollment rate of junior high school graduates in Hainan, Yunnan and Guizhou provinces was less than 45%, while the enrollment rate of junior high school graduates in Beijing and Shanghai was over 98%. According to past development experience, when the enrollment rate is low, the average annual growth rate will be larger; On the contrary, the higher the enrollment rate, the smaller the increase. The specific situation basically conforms to the following laws: the enrollment rate of junior high school graduates in that year was below 60%, and it increased by about 3.5 percentage points in the following year; It was between 60% and 75% in that year, and it will increase by about 3 percentage points in the second year; It was between 75% and 90% in that year, and increased by about 1.5 percentage points in the second year; It was above 90% in that year, and the increase in the following year will not exceed 1 percentage point.

Proportion of vocational education in senior high school

This depends on the following three main factors: First, the government's macro-control measures. At the national conference on vocational and adult education in 2005, the Ministry of Education clearly put forward the goal of realizing the coordinated development of secondary vocational schools and ordinary high schools from the overall situation of the country. Accordingly, the proportion of general posts in China will remain at the level of 1: 1 in the next few years. This ratio is required to be significantly higher than the secondary vocational education enrollment rate of 40.7% in 2003.

The second is the current level of each province. At present, the enrollment rate of secondary vocational education varies greatly among provinces and regions in China. In 2003, the proportion of Zhejiang and Beijing has exceeded or approached 50%, while Qinghai and Tibet have not exceeded 20%. Judging from the development trend, as the overall proportion of the whole country will be greatly improved, the enrollment ratio of secondary vocational education in most provinces and regions of the country will be improved to varying degrees in the next few years, especially in the provinces and regions with low proportion.

The third is to take into account the number of non-freshmen training and rural labor transfer training in various provinces and regions.

Therefore, it is predicted that the enrollment ratio of secondary vocational education in various provinces and regions in the next few years will be as follows: Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Yunnan and Shaanxi will reach and possibly exceed 50%; The provinces and regions that remain between 40% and 50% are Hebei, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hainan, Sichuan and Ningxia; The provinces and regions that remain between 30% and 40% are Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Guizhou, Gansu and Xinjiang; The provinces and regions that remain between 20% and 30% are Tibet and Qinghai.

trend analysis

The forecast shows that the enrollment scale of secondary vocational education will increase steadily in the next few years, approaching 8 million in 2007 and exceeding 8.2 million in 20 10.

Judging from the situation of provinces and regions in China, compared with the enrollment situation in 2002, by 2007 and 20 10, the development trend of secondary vocational education in provinces and regions in China can be roughly divided into four situations:

First, the number of students is insufficient, that is, the scale of local students available in the next few years will be significantly smaller than the existing enrollment scale. They are Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin. By 20 10, the enrollment scale of these three municipalities will remain within 57,000, of which Beijing's predicted enrollment scale is 56,000, which is nearly 40% lower than the actual enrollment of 92,002, and Shanghai and Tianjin will also be reduced by 25% and 10% respectively.

In the next few years, faced with the shortage of students, these three municipalities should gradually expand the enrollment scale of other provinces and regions, especially the central and western regions. For example, the number of local students in Shanghai will be less than 50,000 each year in the next few years, and nearly 20,000 students will be mainly imported from other places. On the other hand, actively carry out the reform of vocational education itself, expand the function of vocational education, and strengthen the exploration of non-academic education and training and the integration of secondary and higher vocational education.

In addition, from the development trend, the per capita GDP of Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin has exceeded 20,000 yuan. The continuous development of economy will inevitably put forward higher requirements for local vocational education, and the high vocational education has just adapted to the requirements of high-tech industries for workers. Therefore, it is the general trend to promote the focus of vocational education in the three municipalities directly under the Central Government and vigorously develop higher vocational education.

Second, the number of students enrolled has increased slightly, but it will not exceed twice the current actual enrollment, that is, by 20 10, the growth rate will remain between 0% and 80%. These provinces and regions include: Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Hunan and Chongqing. Judging from the specific enrollment scale, it is distributed in various regions and has more than 50,000 students. Among them, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang are enrollment provinces between 50- 1.5 million; Liaoning, Fujian and Chongqing are provinces with a population of 1.5-0.25 million. The provinces with a population of 250,000-450,000 are Hebei, Hunan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Shandong is a province with a population of over 450,000.

Most of these provinces and regions are coastal areas. The good momentum of economic and social development will certainly bring opportunities for the healthy development of vocational education. Therefore, as long as the proportion of general vocational education is well regulated, there is still room for development of secondary vocational education in these provinces in the next few years. Especially in Fujian, Shandong, Jiangsu and other eastern coastal provinces, its per capita GDP has exceeded or approached 6.5438+0.5 million yuan, and the development momentum is strong. In addition, while adjusting and developing secondary vocational education in these areas, it will also be an important task in the future to actively promote the step-by-step development of higher vocational education and explore various modes of running schools. In this regard, these areas should actively explore, do a good job in the development of secondary and higher vocational education, and lay a good foundation for the sustainable development of vocational education.

Third, the number of students enrolled doubled, that is, the increase was between 80%- 120%. These provinces and regions include: Hubei, Shanxi, Sichuan and Shaanxi. Among them, the scale of Hubei, Shaanxi and shanxi recruit students will reach 273,000, 309,000 and 346,000 respectively; The enrollment scale of Sichuan Province will exceed 500,000, ranking first in the country.

Fourth, the current enrollment has more than doubled, that is, the growth rate is above 120%. These provinces are mainly in the central and western regions of China. They are: Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang. Except for Guangdong, all other provinces and regions are central and western provinces and regions. Among them, there are 7 western provinces and autonomous regions, accounting for more than half.

From the specific scale, it is distributed in various regions: Tibet and Qinghai are provinces with enrollment below 50 thousand; The provinces with a population of 500- 1.5 million are Hainan, Ningxia and Xinjiang; 1.5-0.25 million people in Gansu province; The provinces with 250,000-450,000 people are Jiangxi, Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan; The provinces with more than 450,000 people are Anhui, Henan and Guangdong.

In the next few years, the vast central and western regions of China will have a rich student base. Therefore, on the one hand, we should do a good job in the development of local secondary vocational education, strive to expand the scale and improve the quality of running schools; On the other hand, we should go out of the regional scope and actively explore cooperation with developed eastern regions. Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, which are short of students, have advantages in teaching resources, practical conditions, geographical location and specialty setting. The vast central and western regions are rich in high-quality students, so we should expand their cooperation and gradually break through the regional boundaries of vocational education, so that high-quality students in the central and western regions can receive high-quality vocational education in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, realize the integration of students and resources, complement each other's advantages, achieve mutual benefit and win-win, and promote the virtuous circle and overall development of secondary vocational education in China.

Under the current situation, secondary vocational school students should establish a correct concept of job selection.

The global financial crisis has brought about a cold current of employment. Although college students and migrant workers are the first to bear the brunt, it also makes secondary vocational students feel a chill: there are fewer units recruiting on campus; Long-term cooperative units can reduce the number of admission places or cancel the employment plan ... The financial crisis has brought about the employment crisis. Some vocational education experts pointed out that the employment of secondary vocational graduates who have been popular for many years may face a turning point this year! If graduates don't know enough about the national employment system and social needs, especially the employment situation this year, and then they lack a correct understanding and evaluation of themselves, then they will inevitably have low expectations and high expectations when choosing a job, thus falling into the misunderstanding of choosing a job.

Through questionnaire survey and discussion with students, the author found that students have many wrong ideas and backward ideas in choosing jobs. As the saying goes, "thinking determines the way out, and thinking determines action." Therefore, establishing a correct view of employment and job selection is the basis and premise of job hunting activities, and also the starting point of career success. Under the background that the global economy has not recovered, what kind of career choice should be established as a secondary vocational school student?

First, employment depends on competition and jobs depend on skills.

In a sense, "self-employment" under the market economy system is "competing for posts". Graduates must get rid of passive dependence and passive waiting, dare to compete, establish the concept of "love to fight to win", break the negative employment concept of "waiting, relying and wanting", and change from the passive concept of "waiting and relying" to the active concept of "looking for and rushing". In choosing a job, we should bravely "sell" ourselves, and take the initiative to introduce our "bright spots" and our unique places with a confident and calm attitude and a comparison of advantages and disadvantages, so as to win the final victory in choosing a job. If you don't take the initiative to compete and actively participate in job hunting, you will be at a loss in the face of fierce competition, and it will be more difficult to find a suitable job and successfully realize employment.

Second, first get a job, then choose a job, and then develop.

"Employment first, strive to survive; Seek another job and seek development ",which is a new trend of employment concept. At present, employers are in an advantageous position and have more choices. To a great extent, the pressure of employment makes it impossible for graduates to reach the designated position in one step. Employment first is survival first. Graduation from secondary vocational school is the beginning of a person's independent life. It is true that there is an urgent need to earn money to support oneself and face up to survival.

Furthermore, from the perspective of choice, it is undoubtedly a kind of social progress for people to change careers constantly. On average, China people have 1. 1 jobs in their lifetime, while Americans have 6.5 jobs in their lifetime. The market economy has turned the "iron rice bowl" into a "mud rice bowl". China people only engage in one occupation all their lives, and the time of working in a unit has passed, not to mention that youth is capital. For secondary vocational school students, the road of life has just begun and there is still a long way to go. We must establish the concept of "employment first, then choosing a job", "employment is more realistic than choosing a job, and the future is more important than today", and hold the mentality of "keeping a low profile and doing things with a high profile", and the road to job hunting and career journey will be smoother and smoother.

Third, the line can make contributions and can be established everywhere.

At present, in China, there are inevitably differences in working conditions and distribution, but the 360 lines are only different in division of labor, and there is no distinction between high and low. At that time, Comrade Liu Shaoqi once said to Shi Chuanxiang, a dung digger, "Although I am the president and you are an ordinary worker, the division of labor is different. We are all public servants of the people and are all serving the people. "

To build a building, you need reinforced concrete and bricks, wood and stones; To build a country, we cannot do without knowledgeable scientific experts like Qian Sanqiang and China, and we also need ordinary workers like this. 360 lines, each line is a champion. There are thousands of roads to success, and all roads lead to Rome. All occupations and jobs needed by society are equal and glorious. Workers engaged in various legal occupations are necessary to create social wealth. It can be said that there is no level of work, and self-reliance is glory. People who contribute to society are successful people. As the saying goes, "There are no worthless jobs, only worthless people." Therefore, it should be admitted that college graduates can not only do any work, but also do any work well.

Fourth, a skill is the best in the world.

According to statistics, at present, the quality of front-line workers in China is low, and the shortage of skilled talents is very prominent. At present, there are 654.38+0.4 billion employees in urban enterprises in China, including 70 million skilled workers. Among skilled workers, junior workers account for 60%, intermediate workers account for about 35%, and senior workers only account for 5%. The low technical quality of workers has affected the competitiveness of enterprises in China to some extent. "At present, the average qualified rate of enterprise products in China is only 70%, and the annual loss of bad products is nearly 200 billion yuan," said Alan Lam San, former vice minister of labor and social security. "Without first-class skilled workers, first-class products cannot be produced."

In contrast, in developed countries, their industrial workers are basically skilled workers, with senior workers accounting for 35%, intermediate workers accounting for 50% and junior workers accounting for 15%. Why are there so many countries that produce cars in the world, and only Germany produces cars with the best quality and the most advanced technology? It is not the lack of excellent designers in other countries, but the lack of excellent front-line employees.

At present, in our country, the concept of "multi-skills without pressure, multi-skills and multi-ways out" is increasingly recognized by people. Xu Zhenchao, captain of the container bridge crane team of Qingdao Port Administration, set a world record for container handling; Xu Qiang, a young mechanic in the speed-up workshop of Shen Fei Group, once set a record of four-level accuracy in machining large gears. These "smart blue-collar workers" who have left a deep impression on their international counterparts and brought huge profits and competitive strength to enterprises have repeatedly proved with their success that a young man's failure to enter a university does not mean that he is the "destroyer" of inventions. He has a bright future as a skilled worker, and the "blue-collar workers" are by no means inferior.

5. The job that suits you is the best job.

What is a good job? The so-called good work standards popular in society are: high salary, good environment, close to home and comfortable life. The problem is that such a "good job" has high requirements for job seekers: high education, high quality and high ability. Then ask yourself, "Do I have these qualities?" When many graduates are looking for a job, they often consider "what I want to do" first, and rarely consider "what I can do", "what I am suitable for" and "what the employer needs me to do". Because they don't understand the theory of "job matching" and the specific requirements of various occupations for practitioners, many students are blind in choosing jobs and easily fall into the misunderstanding of choosing jobs.

In fact, there is a lot of work to do in society, but the most important thing is to know what you are best suited to do. Only doing what suits you best is the most enjoyable and the easiest to do well. For vocational school students who are about to graduate and step out of school, they must make their own career orientation before looking for a job to see if it suits them. As long as it suits you, it should be the best-there is no best job, only the one that suits you best.

Six, do not seek stability, cosmopolitan.

Under the market economy system, the traditional employment mode of a person working in a unit for life has become a thing of the past. Market economy has brought a sense of crisis and urgency to employers. If they are not well managed, they may close down or go bankrupt at any time. Therefore, in the past, it was unrealistic for a unit to work until retirement. Everyone should be prepared to "change home" and "leave home" at any time, break the old concept of "staying at home" and not wanting to go out to work, and establish a new concept of job hunting in all directions and through multiple channels. No matter the form of ownership, whether urban or rural, regardless of the border inland, as long as it can play a role and benefit the society, you may wish to try your hand. The new concept of multi-choice, cosmopolitan and changing careers according to one's own situation has been more and more accepted by job seekers.

Seven, no pleasure, hard work.

At present, the high-tech content of most enterprises in China is not high, the labor intensity is relatively high, and the working conditions are relatively difficult. Graduates who are ready to apply for a job must be mentally prepared to face the grassroots, the front line of production and work hard when choosing a job. Although the grass-roots work is hard and the working and living conditions and environment are poor, due to the lack of talents, graduates are urgently needed to explore and start businesses, which is of great use. According to the school's follow-up survey of graduates' success, most of the graduates with outstanding work and remarkable achievements come from grassroots and production lines. It can be said that the grass-roots level is fertile ground for graduates to become talents. "The sword front comes from sharpening, and the plum blossom fragrance comes from bitter cold." Without hard training and years of work experience and ability accumulation, how can we achieve impressive results and shoulder heavy responsibilities? Therefore, when graduates choose their first job, the starting point is not necessarily high. As long as they are conscientious, hard-working and constantly delving into their business, they will certainly grow into excellent workers and excellent managers-gold will always shine everywhere.